Wheat dream stalls as finance ministry withholds million-dollar AfDB funds

…18-month funding in limbo

Nigeria’s ambition to slash its wheat import bill and achieve self-sufficiency has run aground due to a bureaucratic logjam at the highest level of economic governance. For 18 months, critical funding secured from the African Development Bank (AfDB) has sat in limbo, withheld by the Federal Ministry of Finance.

This protracted funding freeze has effectively paralysed the National Agricultural Growth Scheme-Agro Pocket (NAGS-AP) initiative, stalling seed development projects in key agricultural states and leaving the country’s food security strategy in jeopardy.

Over the last year and a half, zero wheat cultivation activities were recorded under the NAGS-AP project. Without the timely provision of high-quality inputs and foundational seeds, actual planted acreage is now projected to plummet 35 percent short of the 2026 national target.

The situation threatens to keep Nigeria reliant on Russia, Lithuania, Poland, Latvia, Ukraine, Canada, and the U.S. for wheat at a time when the demand for wheat derivatives is rising.

“There was no activity on wheat under the NAGS-AP project last year because the finance ministry did not release the funds,” said Oluwasina Olabanji, former executive director, Lake Chad Research Institute.

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“We are going to be seeing high imports of wheat because the lag in activities under the development initiative has led to a decline in our production,” Olabanji said.

While there are no current production data, the National Bureau of Statistics trade report shows that the country’s wheat imports surged by 23.4 percent last year from N1.45 trillion in 2024 to N1.79 trillion in 2025. This might be due to the lack of funds for 18 months to support local wheat production.

He stressed that the country lacks the political will to drive full implementation, while calling on the government to ensure that the wheat development project is not abandoned but supported to achieve its targeted objectives.

In September 2023, the federal government secured a $163 million credit facility from AfDB for wheat development and production.

The government also secured another $134 million in funding from the African Development Bank for the first phase of the National Agricultural Growth Scheme-Agro Pocket (NAGS-AP), which focuses on several crops, including wheat.

The country has recently secured another $200 million for the second phase of the NAGS-AP. Despite all these credit facilities, farmers have yet to receive subsidised inputs for wheat production for 18 months.

Wheat farmers across major producing states recorded steep losses last year after promised subsidised inputs failed to arrive, undoing gains in the country’s push for self-sufficiency.

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“Lots of wheat farmers recorded huge losses last year as several of us did everything as regards land preparation only to be left disappointed because the inputs never came,” Musa Shehu Sheka, national president of the Wheat Farmers Association of Nigeria, said in an interview.

Sheka said the association queried the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and was told the credit facility secured for the program had not been released by the Finance Ministry.

The funding delay has slowed momentum in the wheat sector and prompted many farmers to switch to more profitable crops, he said.

Nigeria produced 43,926 metric tonnes of wheat in 2024, according to the most recent data from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). While exact figures are difficult to track, estimates suggest that the country needs 6.8 million metric tonnes annually to meet demand.

Aside from the finance ministry’s failure to disburse funds last year, insecurity has also hampered the country’s wheat production.

“Insecurity has been a major issue affecting Nigeria’s wheat production in Borno and other key growing regions, which usually suffer from attacks that halt production,” Sheka said.

However, he noted that under the NAGS-AP programme, states like Cross River have come on board in wheat cultivation, and Jigawa has surpassed Borno as the top producer of the commodity.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has predicted that Nigeria’s wheat production will rise by seven percent this year. USDA based its projections on a decreased rate of insecurity in wheat-growing regions and government support.

“Wheat farmers are expected to receive increased input subsidies as the 2027 election season nears and candidates seek support from farming communities,” said the report.

“Wheat production is expected to increase in MY 2026/27 due to government subsidies reaching farmers in time for the upcoming planting season. This increase will primarily recover from the decline experienced in MY 2025/26,” it added.

Nigeria is a major market for a species of wheat known as ‘hard red winter.’ There is also a growing demand for soft red winter wheat for biscuits and cookies; hard white wheat for bread and noodles; and durum wheat for pasta.

As at the time of writing, a metric tonne of local wheat sells for N660,000 ($507), while the U.S. hard red winter (HRW) sells for $288 per tonne and the soft red winter (SRW) for $247 per tonne.