Global rice prices projected to drop 11% in 2025 on favourable weather

The price of rice is projected to decline by 11 percent in 2025/2026 owing to favourable weather conditions and increased production.

In its 2025 annual commodities review and outlook report, AFEX, a commodity exchange platform, notes that the projection is based on favourable weather conditions, including strong rainfall and expected onset of La Nina which is likely to increase yield in India and across Asia, global rice prices will fall.

“The global rice market is poised for potential price relief in 2025, driven by expectations of strong production and key policy shifts in India,” AFEX wrote in its report.

According to the report, a projected bumper harvest and India’s return to the export market are expected to lead to downward pressure on rice prices in the first quarter of the year.

“Global rice production is expected to rise by 8 percent in 2024 which is anticipated to lead to an 11 percent drop in rice prices in 2025,” according to the report.

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“This outlook is supported by favourable weather conditions, including strong rainfall and the expected onset of La Nina,” the report explained.

The report notes that exporters in Asia and the United States are also expected to contribute to a well-supplied global rice market, maintaining downward pressure on prices.

This projection of declining rice prices comes as a relief for Nigerians. The average price of a 50kg bag of rice currently costs about N110,000.

Africa’s most populous nation produced 5.23 million metric tons of rice in the 2024/2025 season down 7 percent from 5.61 million metric tons in the 2023/2024 season, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture.

Similarly, AFEX says that maize prices are projected to remain stable despite favourable yield prospects for the 2024/2025 season in the United States.

“Although U.S production is expected to increase, these gains are likely to be offset by adverse weather conditions and suboptimal growing environments,” the report said.

For cocoa, Nigeria’s leading cash crop, its 2025 outlook appears optimistic due to improved supply in Cote’d’Ivoire, potentially increasing production by up to 15 percent, the report notes.

This projected supply boost is anticipated to ease cocoa prices in 2025 and 2026, following the sharp price surge in 2024.

In 2023, cocoa prices skyrocketed from an average of N2.49 million per metric ton to N10.85 million per metric ton in 2024 due to unfavourable weather conditions in Cote ‘d’ Ivoire and Ghana — two major growers of cocoa bean globally.