Rising temperatures could wipe $20bn off African economies, AfDB warns

….could trigger mass migration, higher food prices and deeper fiscal strain across the continent

 

A potential “super” El Niño weather event, driven by warming Pacific Ocean temperatures, could wipe between $10 billion and $20 billion from the economies of Africa’s hardest-hit countries while triggering mass displacement, higher food prices and increased government borrowing, the African Development Bank (AfDB) has warned.

Anthony Nyong, the AfDB’s director for climate change and green growth, said the climate phenomenon could reduce gross domestic product (GDP) by an average of between 1 percent and 2 percent in the most affected countries, undermining economic growth and stretching already fragile public finances.

“Just this event is going to reduce heavily affected countries’ GDP by 1 percent to 2 percent on average, which is about $10 billion to $20 billion across the continent,” Nyong said.

Meteorologists have warned that the developing weather pattern could become one of the strongest El Niño events on record. The phenomenon is typically associated with prolonged droughts, destructive flooding and other extreme weather across Africa.

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Fiscal pressures threaten economic recovery

The latest warning comes only months after the AfDB projected Africa’s economy would grow by 4.2 percent in 2026 and 4.4 percent in 2027, assuming geopolitical tensions ease. Those forecasts, however, were made before concerns emerged that the current El Niño could intensify into a so-called “super” or “Godzilla” event.

Beyond its humanitarian impact, the bank warned that the weather event could worsen fiscal pressures as governments divert scarce resources from healthcare, education and infrastructure towards disaster response and reconstruction.

Damaged infrastructure and emergency spending could also force countries to increase borrowing, placing additional strain on public finances and banking systems.

Nyong said many African economies are already caught in what he described as a “climate finance trap”, where repeated climate shocks consume resources that would otherwise be invested in long-term development.

Agriculture, food security at greatest risk

The continent has already experienced the devastating effects of the previous El Niño cycle. Between 2023 and 2024, severe drought gripped much of Southern Africa while East Africa suffered widespread flooding, resulting in crop failures, soaring food prices and record sea-level rises along sections of the coastline.

The AfDB estimates that African farmers have already lost about $330 million in income this year, while agricultural losses could reach about $327 million. Fisheries productivity is also expected to decline by between 1 percent and 4 percent as rising sea temperatures and stronger storms reduce fish stocks, adding further pressure on food systems and rural livelihoods.

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AfDB warns of displacement across vulnerable countries

Nyong warned that worsening food insecurity could trigger large-scale migration across the continent, particularly in countries already facing conflict and humanitarian crises, including Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and Nigeria.

“When this El Niño comes there is going to be mass migration,” he said, warning that maize prices, a staple food across much of Africa, could double.

“You are not going to stay put, you are going to move.”

Adaptation funding needs could hit $100bn

To strengthen preparedness, the AfDB plans to convene a bank-wide seminar in September to assess the impact of the anticipated El Niño on its investment portfolio.

The bank also said it is prepared to restructure projects where necessary and help member countries mobilise additional financing from international climate funds, including the Green Climate Fund, the Adaptation Fund, the Climate Investment Funds and emerging loss-and-damage financing mechanisms.

Nyong said Africa’s climate adaptation financing requirements could increase to as much as $100 billion over the next year, significantly higher than previous estimates of around $50 billion.