These are interesting times for Nigerians as a people, and Nigeria as a nation. The clamour by most Nigerians for change of guards at the centre was eventually actualised when voters turned out en masse to elect a president from an opposition party – a feat never before achieved. The new administration rode on the mantra of change to a well-orchestrated victory, and now, the electorate is expecting quick dividends of ‘change’ or else, they will soon be baying for the blood of the new administration.
One unifying and common denominator for most Nigerian voters is poverty. This plague knows no gender, tribe, religion or class, and has eaten deep into every facet of our daily lives. If one is not battling with poverty of the spirit, one is likely to have the poverty of the mind or body to contend with. Going by the definition of incidence of poverty, it is easy to assume that once you are living on more than $2 a day, then you have crossed that threshold of abject poverty. If we, however, relate poverty to the hardship everyone in the country goes through on a daily basis, then every single Nigerian is impoverished. You may have enough resources to generate your own electricity round the clock, but you can’t escape the hardship of bad roads. You may have the security fit for the whole community at your beck and call, but you will have the flood to contend with once you drive out of your expensive slum.
There are many aberrations that have become the norm, and our psyche is collectively assaulted on a daily basis. How else does one explain that coming off the back of more than five continuous years of oil boom, about eighteen states are unable to pay salaries and are seeking bailout from self-inflicted profligacy. It is amazing that not only was the accrued oil revenue beyond the budget benchmark shared by all the tiers of government, the savings pot was also collectively plundered by those that are now seeking bailout. How do states that are unable to pay minimum wage afford and maintain state-owned jets for their chief executives? How can a state that can’t pay salaries assign 22 cars to just the wives of the governor? How do you allocate N150bn to 469 National Assembly members per annum, an average of N319.83m per member per annum, in a country with a minimum wage of N18,000? So for every National Assembly member, there is an equivalent of 1,481 minimum wage earners in that salary and allowances per annum.
A cursory look at the federal and states’ budgets also gives an indication of the absurdity in our polity. Out of a total of about N11trn for federal and states’ budgets, an average of 80 percent goes to recurrent expenditure. Of the 80 percent recurrent expenditure, about 78 percent goes to personnel cost. This works out at about N6.9trn personnel cost for all the tiers of government, with a staff strength of about 4 million. That leaves circa N2.2trn for capital expenditure from all the tiers of government. This suggests an average of N12,644 is budgeted for capital expenditure on every Nigerian. If we take into consideration the fact that only about 50 percent of capital expenditures are usually implemented, that brings it down to N6,322 per person per annum. This capital expenditure includes allocations for both hard and soft infrastructure such as roads, railway, housing, health, education, electricity and information technology. Little wonder the state of our infrastructure is what it currently is.
The current structure of our economy also breeds poverty. Trade is about 17 percent of our GDP, but unfortunately, we are only trading the goods and services of other countries. The mainstay of the Nigerian economy, crude oil, is a N9.6trn industry, but the oil refining sector is only N386bn, yet between N800bn and N1trn is paid as subsidy on imported petroleum products. The oil refining sector can easily be a N3trn industry by simply meeting the refining needs of the country. This has serious implications for employment and the stability of the domestic currency. The railway sub-sector, which is a catalyst for growth, only contributes about N252bn to an N89trn economy – about 0.0003 percent.
Many Nigerians were expecting the new administration to hit the ground running based on the many promises that the electorate is hoping will be more than campaign rhetoric. Fortunately, the expectation of most Nigerians is low – only Nigerians still thank a government for providing basic amenities from their collective resources and taxes – and there are many low-hanging fruits that can be actualized to score cheap points. A good place to start is to minimize the burden of the cost of governance. This will signal the beginning of the end of business as usual, and begin to restore the hope of the electorate in the Nigerian government. Common sense can then be applied in the re-structuring of the Nigerian economy by targeting those sectors with the highest multiplier effect on the people and the aggregate economy. The world awaits Nigeria, but are we ready to announce our arrival on the global stage? The next four years will tell.
Olugbenga A. Olufeagba
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