Nigeria’s Q1 GDP in 3 years low of 3.9%, inflation to stay above 8.5%

There are indications that Nigeria’s economy may have slowed to around 3.9 percent in the first quarter of 2015, the lowest in three years, as economic activities, especially manufacturing, merely struggled on poor power supply.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release these figures tomorrow as well as April inflation figures which experts see could possibly move above 8.5 percent March figure to maybe 8.7 percent on naira concerns.
Nigeria’s economy grew by 5.94 percent (year-on- year), some 0.28 percentage points lower than third quarter of 2014 and 0.83 percentage points from rates recorded in the fourth quarter of 2013.
The NBS said in its last GDP report that the decrease in the fourth quarter growth was as a result of slowed growth in the non-oil sector which recorded 6.44 percent growth lower than the 8.78 percent recorded in the corresponding period in 2013, and the 7.51 percent recorded in the third quarter of 2014.
The agricultural sector, for instance, grew by 6.28 percent (year-on-year) in the fourth quarter of 2014, down by 0.19 percentage points from fourth quarter of 2013 and 2.91 percentage points from the previous quarter of 2014. Agriculture contributed 22.07 percent to nominal GDP in the fourth quarter of 2014, the NBS said.
Manufacturing grew nominally by growth in the fourth quarter 2014 and was estimated at 19.12 percent (year-on-year), 13.28 percentage points lower than the 32.40 percent recorded in the corresponding period of 2013. Growth was 2.46 percentage points less than the third quarter 2014 estimate.
The mining and quarrying sector’s nominal GDP recorded negative growth of 17.16 percent (year-on-year), 16.53 percentage points higher than the -0.31 percent growth rate in the corresponding quarter of 2013 and 2.48 percentage points lower than growth rate recorded in the third quarter of 2014.
The oil sector experienced production and price challenges in the fourth quarter. Average daily production of crude oil was recorded at 2.18 million barrels per day (mbpd), an increase from 2.16 mbpd recorded in the fourth quarter of 2013 and from the 2.15 mbpd recorded in third quarter of the year 2014.
The NBS said the sector grew by 1.18 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014, 10.54 percentage points higher than the decline of 9.36 percent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2013.