Air passenger traffic nears post-pandemic recovery in October

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that the ongoing recovery in passenger demand continued in October, stating that the numbers bring the industry closer to completing post-pandemic recovery.

Total traffic in October 2023 (measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) rose 31.2 percent compared to October 2022. Globally, traffic is now at 98.2 percent of pre-COVID levels.

Domestic traffic for October rose 33.7 percent versus October 2022, driven by the triple-digit percentage growth recorded in China, and was 4.8percent above the October 2019 results.

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International traffic climbed 29.7 percent compared to the same month a year ago. All markets saw double-digit percentage gains year on year. International RPKs reached 94.4 percent of October 2019 levels.

“October’s strong result brings the industry ever closer to completing the post-pandemic traffic recovery. Domestic markets remain above pre-COVID levels. International demand is recovering, but more slowly. In particular, Asia Pacific carriers’ international demand is 19.5 percent behind 2019. This could reflect the late lifting of COVID restrictions in parts of the region as well as commercial developments and political tensions, ” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

African airlines saw a 25.3 percent traffic increase in October 2023 versus a year ago. October capacity was up 32.4 percent causing load factor to decline 4.0 percentage points to 70.3 percent, lowest among the regions.

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Asia-Pacific airlines saw an 80.3 percent increase in October 2023 traffic compared to October 2022, continuing to lead the regions. Capacity climbed 72.5 percent and the load factor increased by 3.6 percentage points to 82.9 percent.

European carriers’ October 2023 traffic rose 16.1 percent versus October 2022. Capacity increased 14.5 percent, and load factor edged up 1.2 percentage points to 85.1 percent.

Middle Eastern airlines posted a 24.1 percent rise in October 2023 traffic compared to a year ago. Capacity rose 22.2 percent and load factor climbed 1.2 percentage points to 80.6 percent. There was little impact at the regional and global levels from the Israel-Hamas war, despite reduced airline operations to/from Israel.

North American carriers had a 17.5 percent traffic rise in October 2023 versus the 2022 period. Capacity also increased 17.5 percent, and load factor was stable at 83.9 percent.

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Latin American airlines’ traffic rose 21.2 percent compared to the same month in 2022. October capacity climbed faster — up 22.3 percent — pushing load factor down 0.8 percentage points to 85.3 percent, highest among the regions.

“People assign a high value to the freedom to travel. The strong demand we’ve seen all year confirms that. And aviation is committed to ensuring that people can continue to enjoy this freedom. To do that in the long-term, we must also meet our commitment to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

,”Last month, the Third Conference on Aviation Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) agreed a global framework to promote Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production with the aim that aviation fuel in 2030 is five percent less carbon intensive than fossil fuel used today.

“Now, governments need to support that target by immediately putting in place policies to stimulate SAF production. It bears repeating: last year, every drop of SAF that was produced was purchased. The same thing will occur this year. But, with a few notable exceptions, governments are not living up to their obligations to ensure SAF is plentiful and affordable to support the industry’s energy transition,” said Walsh.