How many are we in Nigeria? (1)

Population data is a vital ingredient in the process of socio-economic development. Accurate population figures of a country or region are usually obtained through a credible census, and subsequently through objective estimates based on that census till the next exercise. Though Nigeria has had several censuses, determining the actual population of the country has so far remained elusive. This has been so because most of the previous censuses conducted in the country lacked credibility.

There is a wide disparity in the figures being pushed forward by various agencies as the estimated population of the country. Most of the figures are quite unrealistic and outrageous. The big question then is: How many are we in Nigeria?

 Challenges of census in Nigeria

 While it is true that nowhere in the world has there ever been a completely hitch-free headcount, Nigeria has had a particularly checkered history of census taking. All kinds of objections, claims and counter-claims trailed virtually each of the 15 censuses conducted in this country thus far. Consequently, Government at the centre has had to set up Census Tribunals to handle the various contentions and agitations arising from census.

Several challenges combined to mar the 1901 headcount. The exercise was not properly organised. Government further compounded the whole problem by resorting to specimen areas in selected parts of the country which were used as an index for estimating the total population of the then Nigeria.

The 1911 population census was actually intended to cover the whole country; but this was not to be.  The attempt was widely reported to have been greeted with insurrections in the north and hostility in the south.  The 1911 census therefore, had a limited coverage. In  all,  house-to-house count  only  took  place  in  eleven  main  parts,  while  only estimates  of  population  were  made  for  the  rest  of  the southern  provinces  and  the  entire  Northern  protectorate.

The post amalgamation census took place in 1921. Again the result of that exercise was considered to be anything but accurate; hence the results were commonly rejected. The 1931 population census was another exercise in futility. It was conducted with the aim of improving on the 1921 exercise; but this could not be achieved.  The 1931 enumeration suffered some notable setbacks. For instance,  counting  of persons  took  place  in  few selected  places;  it  was  poorly financed;  and  very  few  administrators  were  used.

Owing to perceived irregularities and inaccuracies, results of the first post-independence census conducted in 1962 were withdrawn and a fresh census was conducted in 1963. Yet, the reliability of the 1963 census was seriously called to question. In fact, the 1963 figures were so hotly contested that the unity of the country was seriously threatened. The results of the 1973 census were so highly discredited that the results were later cancelled by the Murtala Mohammed military administration.

The  Political  Bureau  appointed  by  the  General Ibrahim Babangida military administration  acknowledged the  problematic  nature  of Nigeria’s population census in its 1987 Report when it observed inter alia that: “An  overview  of  the  Nigerian  political  experience since  independence  in  1960  shows  clearly  that among  the  many  issues  that  have  created  great anxiety  and  brought  the  country  to  the  brink  of collapse  has  been  the  attempt  at  obtaining  an accurate  count  of  the  country’s  population.  The potency  of  the  issue  as  a  source  of  confusion and national discord is underscored by the fact that  attempts  made  by  civilians  (1962  –  1963) and  the  military  (1973)  were  greeted  with  the same  degree  of  cynicism,  suspicion  and controversies  and  had  to  be  cancelled.”

The 1991 census was marred by allegations of cheating and inaccurate reporting. On the first page of the census form, provision was made for the listing of up to nine household members. Rather strangely, data collected from some states showed all households reporting exactly nine people. Some population experts have questioned this rather incongruous trend, speculating that state and local government officials must have manipulated the data by encouraging communities to deliberately misreport at the household level.

Like most of its predecessors, the 2006 census exercise equally faced several challenges and expectedly it was trailed by many controversies. The exercise was characterized by protests, boycotts, and charges of fraud. During the census, thousands of enumerators walked off the job, because they had not been paid. Following the official release of the provisional results of the census, the gate of hot objections was literally thrown wide open. About 361 cases were filed against the National Population Commission and the released census figures from various parts of the country.

Nna O. Uluocha