Nigeria: Poised for greatness

So many problems have plagued Nigeria over the years, so many opportunities gained and then squandered. So many proclamations of a new beginning, only to see them fade into oblivion. To see its international reputation tarnished by charges of corruption, ethnic and religious violence, political upheaval, and most recently by the rampages of the horrific Boko Haram. Somehow that title seemed like the naiveté of Voltaire’s Pangloss who tells his student Candide to believe that “This world is the best of all possible worlds.”

Is Nigeria in reality “poised for greatness,” or for more turmoil and disappointment? 

I chose the title because Nigeria is so poised. But whether it realizes this opportunity is still uncertain. Nigeria could remain forever poised, but its potential greatness never realized.

I want to speak to the themes of the panels that follow. But first, let me say a few words about the world around us and how it impacts Nigeria’s future. Our world is changing rapidly and nowhere more than in economic opportunities and challenges. The technological revolution, in communications, manufacturing, agriculture, health, and transportation is upending older modes of operation. It is changing historic sources of comparative advantage. India now is a leader in IT, China in manufacturing and the leading importer of natural resources, Bangladesh is a leader in textiles production, South Korea is a leader in shipbuilding and electronics. The energy sector is changing worldwide with far-reaching implications for Nigeria. Oil production in Sub-Saharan Africa is on the path to doubling by 2020. But as more of the production comes from offshore sources, higher costs will reduce the return per barrel by half. This will require painful adjustments in contractual relations to attract sufficient investment. With steadily lower revenue, diversification of the economy will become ever more urgent. On the positive side, genetically modified organisms and other advances could make Africa a principal source of agricultural supply for the world as well as overcoming deep seated problems of hunger and malnutrition on the continent.

Even as some of these changes open up new opportunities they also create new problems. Employment is becoming an issue in nearly every country, developed and developing. New skills are needed, as advantage shifts from one part of the world to another. But adjustments are  difficult nor are the right educational resources there for those displaced from their previous work. And then there is climate change. Africa may be hit the hardest as rainfall patterns change, access to grasslands become more scarce producing competition for land, and droughts and floods become more pronounced.

Countries have to be nimble to take advantage of these opportunities and to adjust to these new challenges. Moreover, they have to move rapidly lest they constantly be left behind, always a step slower than those moving ahead.

The United States is no exception. Even with its wealth and power, the U.S. faces a decaying infrastructure; educational gaps for significant parts of the population; a persistent level of unemployment, with the threat of creating a permanent underclass if this unemployment cannot be overcome; and with climate change a prolonged drought in the west and south, floods and storms wracking the Midwest, and longer fire seasons destroying forests and wetlands, all causing major agricultural and other income losses. Addressing these challenges is made all the harder in the  U.S. in a time of political gridlock, growing debt, the lingering effects of the recent recession, and no consensus on how these many issues should be addressed.

So Nigeria is not alone in having to make hard decisions, and to make them sooner than later. Let us see how well poised it is.

Twenty-Five Years

Though I have been back many times since, it is exactly 25 years since I departed Nigeria as ambassador. When I was leaving someone asked what I saw for Nigeria’s future, 25 years hence. I will not try to recall all that I said, but I know it was quite optimistic. Looking back now, there have been some very significant accomplishments.

Nigeria is one country. A number of experts over the years have predicted that Nigeria would come apart as regional tensions and unrest persist. I have never held that view. Many things hold Nigeria together – the lessons of the Biafra War, the dependence that every part of the country has developed on the oil wealth from the delta, and some innovative ways of power sharing. But another is that Nigerians do have a national spirit and pride. I rarely meet a Nigerian abroad who does not identify him or herself first as Nigerian, as important as other identities may be. That same pride exists in the country. Nigeria has confounded some of its critics in this regard and I believe it will continue to do so.

Nigeria has returned, and now with some consistency, to civilian rule. A Nigerian politician lamented to me in the 1980s that democracy is a process which needs time, decades, to overcome problems of governance, transparency, and full respect for constitutional rights. Yet each time Nigerian civilian rule faltered, the military stepped in and Nigeria civilians had to start all over again when civilian rule was restored. But Nigeria has had civilian rule for 15 years now, with four successive elections and three presidents. Lots of problems exist, some of which I will talk about later, but I believe Nigerians have gone past thinking that military rule is an answer, rather being but an interruption to progress, not a solution.

Some very important foundations have been laid for future development. Foreign debt has almost disappeared since the debt relief achieved in 2005. Inflation has been kept relatively under control. Banks were reformed and recapitalized in 2008-2009. Some greater transparency has been achieved in federal, state, and local government budgets. Privatization revolutionized private communications with the introduction of mobile technology, and privatization is now taking place in the power sector with even greater far reaching potential. Nominal GDP growth has been noteworthy, with per capita GDP growing since 1999 from $290 to nearly $3,000, though real GDP has unfortunately remained flat.

But one negative stands out from these figures.  Poverty in Nigeria is shockingly high, shockingly for a country with such rich human, natural, and economic resources. Poverty rates, people living on less than $1 a day, is estimated by the Nigerian government at 61%, more than 100 million people living on less than $1 a day. In the north it is even higher. Unemployment and underemployment are endemic and in some parts of the country reach 80%. The ramifications of poverty reach into every aspect of Nigerian society, its politics, economics, stability, and security. It is the greatest obstacle to greatness. And yet, this vast human resource, so underutilized, is a potential source for greatness. For if the Nigerian population was to share more fully in Nigeria’s growth, its wealth, and its development, Nigeria would become the giant of Africa as once expected.

What is holding Nigeria back?

Leadership and the Development of Democratic Institutions

Beginning in the 1990s there was a wave of movement to democracy throughout Africa and elsewhere in the world.  Today, in sharp contrast to earlier decades, more than 70% of African countries have elected governments. The Africa Union will not seat a government that comes to power via unconstitutional means. However, in recent years many elected governments have taken on the trappings of the autocratic rulers they replaced. Once elected they have sought to undermine constitutional limits on their presidency, to constrain the role of civil society – the civil society that helped bring many to power – and to crack down on the press and other human rights. We see this happening in Zambia, Uganda, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, the DRC and elsewhere. This phenomenon is not unique to Africa and it is worrisome as to the future of democracy worldwide.

I had the honor of being U.S. ambassador to South Africa during that country’s transition to democracy. One of the first things that became clear to me about Nelson Mandela was that he truly believed in non-racial democracy. It was not a convenient slogan to impress followers or foreign supporters. It was not even a conviction shared by all within the ANC. It was something to which he was committed and for which he was prepared to use his leadership. Under his direction the ANC wrote and the country ratified one of the strongest democratic constitutions in the world. He then made it meaningful when as president he bowed to the rulings of the Constitutional Court that went against him. And he declined even a second term in office, making a strong statement about the need for transitions and successions. As his followers told a recent gathering in Washington, even as he resisted efforts by the old regime to constrain majority rule, he cautioned his followers to take pains to limit the power of “future majorities.”

The question is whether Nigeria’s leaders are committed to democracy. Not just to elections, and those too need improvements, but to the rule of law, to respect for human rights and a free press, and to honest and transparent governance. In sum are they committed to the philosophy and principles of democracy? The record is surely mixed.  Nelson Mandela once chided Nigerians working to unseat Sani Abacha, that Nigeria lacked a democratic political movement that would follow Abacha. Nigeria’s civilian leadership since then has not gone so far down the path of restricting democracy and human rights as other elected governments, but it has not demonstrated deep commitment to these principles either. There have been too many violations of innocent human life in fighting terror, too many threats to the press, too often exploitation of religion or ethnicity as a means to power, and too much use of armed supporters during elections. And too few held accountable for these violations or corruption.

How does one develop democratically committed leadership and hold them accountable? Stephen Grand, in his book, Understanding Tahrir Square, argues that civil society – like those who gathered in the streets in Cairo, in Kiev, and elsewhere – must stay engaged in politics. It is not enough to bring down a dictator, nor to see a new government elected, but also for society to invest in developing the skills of democratic governance, apply them through political parties who aspire to govern, and to hold those parties accountable once in power. I suggest this political activity on the part of universities, think tanks, business groups, unions, and human rights group must be integral to the task of building new institutions of accountability, law and order, and the like. Institutions cannot be separated from politics.

Nigerians, as every poll demonstrates, are fully in support of democracy. But there is today in Nigeria still a disconnect between the many parts of civil society, the representatives and advocates of democracy, and the political process. One cannot always just blame the leaders. Great leaders often emerge when the conditions are ripe for them to do so.

Creating an Environment for Entrepreneurial Activities

The same challenge applies to economic development. Across Africa there has been a remarkable improvement in economic governance. It is one of the factors contributing to Africa’s current growth spurt and to the influx of foreign investment. But few parties in Africa hold clear views or run on platforms linked to economic policy. One prominent former politician in Nigeria described parties in Nigeria as more alliances of individuals seeking power rather than representatives of a particular philosophy, whether political or economic.

Madam Ngogzi Okonjo-Iwaela, Minister of Finance, in her book Reforming the Unreformable, says that one of the limitations on carrying forward the reforms she initiated was insufficient attention to the political economy. She writes, “In economics, reform is politics, and the idea that they can remain separate is untenable. Thus it is important that reformers have a plan or a strategy for engaging politician and lawmakers in the rationale for reforms and getting them to buy in early.” She urges that reformers also engage civil society and the public on these reforms to help hold officials accountable.

I was told that this seminar is aimed at kicking off a process of developing a reform agenda that will be pursued after the 2015 elections. With due respect, I suggest that that is too late. Such a reform agenda should be made part and parcel of the election process. If parties are not forced to address the issues you feel are important, and held accountable to them at the polls, why would they feel so committed afterwards? And if candidates and parties are not challenged to address the major economic challenges of the country – poverty, education, climate change – how can Nigeria be expected to move forward?

Whose responsibility is it to develop the necessary economic skills and philosophy in the political realm, and to hold leaders accountable to them? If it is not the business community, those who have developed Vision 2010 and similar reform agendas, who is it? I realize that like in the U.S., business is somewhat wary of getting too close to politics or government, lest members be co-opted, corrupted, or broken. Lobbying is one thing; getting more heavily engaged is another. But if one looks at just the economic challenges ahead for Nigeria, —  to make privatization of power work, to continue to shrink government’s role in the economy, to reduce corruption, to build infrastructure, to combat poverty, to overcome sharp regional disparities, — how will this be possible if governments get elected without demonstrating their approach to these problems? And of course demonstrating their understanding of them.

There is another aspect of the economic condition that is very much both economic and political. There is poverty in every part of the country. But there is a clear and dangerous disparity between the north and much of the rest of the country. In almost every category of human development – income, employment, education, and health — the north lags seriously behind. It is not a regional problem, however; it is a national one. This disparity weighs heavily on the politics of the country, on the security situation, and on Nigeria’s future as a united and great nation. The causes of this disparity are many and it is not merely a matter of economic resources. Governance is surely part of it. But in developing plans for infrastructure, for reforming education, and in opening opportunities for entrepreneurial activities, attention has to be paid to the impact on different parts of the country. Developing national consensus on these problems is one of the tasks which reformers must assume.

Related to this regional disparity are the looming effects of climate change coupled with population growth. Nigeria has already lost 35% of its cultivable land in the past 50 years and depleted the once bounteous waters of Lake Chad. Farming and fishing communities have lost their livelihoods. Nomadic populations are moving steadily further south as grasslands become scarce, causing friction with farming communities in the Middle Belt. The same phenomenon is happening elsewhere in Africa. These changes are some of the underlying causes of the genocide and ongoing civil war in the Darfur region of Sudan. If there is to be an economic reform agenda in Nigeria it must address all these challenges.

Physical Infrastructure and Investment in People

When it comes to people, no country should be able to outdo Nigerians. A few years back I attended a conference at the Harvard Business School of African students getting their MBAs. Though many were studying at the Harvard Business School, students had come from all over the country. They were extraordinary. They were bright, determined, optimistic, eager to learn, but also not afraid to challenge their instructors and business elders. Above all, they were anxious to get out into the business world. And they were overwhelmingly Nigerian.  But that Nigerian resource is hardly tapped to its full potential,

Kingsley Chiedu Moghalu, in his book Emerging Africa, has painted a damning picture of the state of Nigerian education.

Nigerian students in grades four and six were the worst performing out of 22 countries that participated in a UNESCO measurement of learning outcomes in 1996 and 2003. … Only 5.75% of 803,6360 [Nigerian secondary] private candidates that sat for the West African Senior Secondary School Certificate Examination in 2010 received 5 credits and above with English Language included. … Only 23% made passing grades in science subjects in 2011. If primary and secondary education has deteriorated, university education has existed in an advanced state of decay for over two decades. Even first generation Nigerian universities have seen their accreditations withdrawn or threatened as a result of poor infrastructure such as libraries, classroom facilities, and student housing.

The pathway to greatness in today’s world is through education, and especially having a population skilled in science, math and technology. If the situation Moghalu describes is not turned around, then greatness will not be achieved. As bleak as the situation is, there are new opportunities. For example, education is an area where technology offers opportunities that Nigeria has yet fully to exploit. When I was here as ambassador I toured university libraries, where for lack of foreign exchange, students were using outdated journals and books. There is no excuse for that today. With the internet universities can access libraries around the world. Innovations in teaching are also possible today through the internet and other technology that are changing practices of  some of the best universities in the U.S. Private institutions in Nigeria have led the way in instituting some of these changes.

I know from our education challenges in the U.S., that these problems are not easily overcome. One of the forces for education reform in the U.S. however is the business community and business financed foundations. The business community has recognized that without educated workers and future business leaders, their businesses will lose in the global competition. So they are investing in every level of education, from pre-school to post-graduate. They are financing experimentation and new ideas, and increasing the availability of scholarships. In many ways they are pushing government and leading it in this field. Kingsley Moghalu lays out an agenda for educational reform. The role of the private sector is just one part of it. And it cannot be just for the elite.

There is no need for me to speak to this audience about the critical importance of physical infrastructure. Lack of adequate power supply, in a country so richly endowed with energy resources, has always been a shocking failure in Nigeria. It has contributed to the deindustrialization that has taken place in many parts of the country. Other countries have simply taken over production of the consumer goods and textiles that Nigeria once produced. Lack of adequate transport has contributed to the disparities about which I talked earlier. In infrastructure, Nigeria is in fact starting way behind other countries of even smaller size and potential. It is not enough just to catch up, but to jump ahead if at all possible.

What holds the country back when it is so rich in energy resources and is now on the path to privatization? One is the history of a lack of transparency and honest contracting throughout this sector. But there is another. Even as Nigeria privatizes its power sector, foreign investment in it is so far minimal. Why should that be? I would suggest that one factor is the current security crisis in the country. To much of the world today, Nigeria is the country of Boko Haram. It is the country of states of emergency, kidnappings, and persecution of women. It is not an image that attracts foreign investment. This is not a regional problem. It is a national one. It affects all the hopes and plans for economic development. So let me address that challenge.

The Challenge of Boko Haram

Boko Haram is a truly terrible organization. It has killed some 5,000 Nigerians. It has waged war on all the institutions of government and society – its mosques, its churches, its schools, and its international partners. It has carried out horrific attacks on women, demonstrating a total lack of respect for women’s safety, dignity and rights. The insecurity it has created has emptied farms of workers, forced the closing of schools and factories, and displaced tens of thousands from their homes.

Nigeria has had extreme groups arise in the past. But they never reached this level of sophistication and capability. How has such an extreme organization grown to such dimensions? Some of the answers lie in religious dissention, in so many disenchanted youth today without any economic prospects who are open to recruitment, to poor governance, and to depredations carried out against civilians by Nigerian security forces sent against Boko Haram.

But I would focus on another cause. There has been a loss of the consensus that pertained since independence among the elite on how Nigeria should be governed and power is to be rotated and shared. It was not perfect and had many negative aspects. But it was a consensus that constrained regional divisions, maintained politics within a relatively agreed context, and helped keep the country together. That consensus has broken down. And without it, elites are unable or unwilling to come together to confront this national crisis. One indication of this lack of national commitment and unity is that the government and opposition have each accused the other of being supporters of Boko Haram. If Boko Haram becomes just another political football to be used in the power rivalry, then Boko Haram will not be broken.

Overcoming Boko Haram, and indeed dealing with other vestiges of ethnic and religious violence, requires a national coming together to agree that this threat is greater than any party, regional, or political difference. It requires a broad-based approach, supported by the federal and state governments, and backed further by the private sector, that builds confidence and cooperation with the population, improves the human rights record of the security forces, and offers prospects for development. From all of these steps the nation will gain the intelligence, grassroots support, and elite convergence essential to break the back of this organization.

It behooves all parts of Nigerian society to call for this coming together. The elites of Nigeria bear the primary responsibility to take the first step of coming together and making this a national priority over and beyond any other political issue or set of differences. This challenge is where Nigeria is being tested the most urgently. It is the test the world is watching. It cannot be underestimated.

Conclusion

Is Nigeria poised for greatness? Yes it is. But frankly it has been for some time. The question is whether it remains poised or whether it moves forward to achieve it. I will join my friend and colleague Dick Kramer in having faith and optimism that Nigeria will indeed rise to the challenge and the opportunity.

*Excerpts of the keynote address delivered at the seminar – Partnering for Nation Building held in commemoration of Dick Kramer’s 80th birthday

Princeton N. Lyman