On being numero uno

The release of the much-awaited GDP figures following the rebasing of our baseline statistics last week has put to rest months of speculation regarding the exercise. It is the end product of painstaking efforts by a combined team led by the IMF, the World Bank and the African Development Bank stretching over a year. The report puts Nigeria’s GDP at $510 billion, a whopping 94 percent jump from the former figure of $262 billion.

I have been intrigued by the various reactions to this announcement. A Congolese friend heartily congratulated me — half-expecting I would start walking on the world stage with a newly acquired swagger. He was taken aback by my sober mood. As expected, authorities in Abuja made some celebratory noises, although they also caution that we are not yet there. Opposition figures such as Governor Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State dismissed it as an insult to the millions of Nigerians who wallow in desperate poverty. One noted economics commentator dismissed the entire thing as an exercise in “vanity”.

Patrick Bond from South Africa dismissed it as a “scam”. He notes, rightfully, that the exercise may have been postponed during the Obasanjo years because Nigeria was negotiating its exit from the Paris Club of creditors and did not want to show figures that would have made our debt sustainability better than we had pretended. That may well be so. But to move from there to call it a “scam” says more about the commentator than it does about the team that worked on the rebasing. I used to work in the Department of Statistics and Development Research of the African Development Bank and I can testify to the ability and integrity of my former colleagues, one of them a winner of the Africa Statistics Prize and recently headhunted by the World Bank to head its International Social Statistics Programme. These people collaborated with the NBS and IMF and World Bank staff to bring out figures that are unassailable. Indeed, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, has made it clear that the team were encouraged to take their time and to work assiduously to come out with figures that would be as reliable as possible.

Much has been made of the fact that Nigeria has overtaken South Africa as the largest economy on the continent, with our economy standing at a GDP of $510 billion as contrasted with South Africa’s $370.3 billion. The fixation with South Africa is regrettable. I do not believe Nigeria and South Africa are titanic rivals competing for primacy on the continent of Africa. On the contrary, I believe we are partners of destiny in the same manner as France and Germany constitute the heart and locomotive of European integration.

A few years ago, China overtook Japan as the second leading economy in the world. The Japanese, in their characteristic manner, took it with grace, if not sangfroid.  In this day and age, ballpark GDP figures do not tell the entire story. Today, China has a GDP of $8.4 trillion as compared to Japan’s $6 trillion. When you look closely at the two social systems, you will see that the Japanese have no reason to envy the Chinese. Japan is a mature, advanced industrial-technological state. Poverty has been virtually eliminated in Japan. On the island of Okinawa, average life-expectancy is 100 years. Japan is a prosperous democracy. When the trains are late by a minute, it makes headlines. China, for all the hype, remains largely a developing country, with millions of poverty-stricken people. The Chinese themselves are the first to tell you that they remain anxious about the fragility of their entire economy and social system. The issue of one envying the other for overtaking it in GDP terms therefore does not arise.

We may have earned some “bragging rights” from the recent figures, but the reality on ground is that South Africa is a stable country; a mature economy with world-class infrastructures. Its public institutions are robust. South Africa boasts some of the world’s best scientists. The Universities of Stellenbosch, Cape Town and Witwatersrand score highly on the world universities league tables. Nigeria trails far behind South Africa in all those areas.  Even with the improved GDP figures, Nigeria’s per capita income stands at $2,600 compared to South Africa’s $8,000. In spite of its internal challenges, the South Africa bequeathed by Nelson Mandela is viewed across the world as a serious country that speaks with authority in the councils of the family of nations. Nigeria, by contrast, suffers from a reputational burden as a bungling, unstable and vastly corrupt behemoth. Even our Lilliputian neighbours hold us in utter derision.

It pains me to say this about my country. I live in Europe and my job takes me to all corners of the world. I am perhaps better placed than most to know that it has become increasingly difficult for one to hold one’s head high as a Nigerian. Ours is the image of a brainless giant who is lucky to be sitting on a lake of oil; a land of scammers, murderers and thieves with a capacity to squirrel away staggering amounts from the treasury.

The newly released figures, if truth be told, make one feel good. I do not believe they will have a mere placebo effect. Accuracy in national statistics is vital to macroeconomic management. These figures will not only improve our sovereign risk profiles, they will boost inward investments and make it easier for our firms to access international capital markets.

But enormous challenges remain. An estimated 100 million of our people live in conditions of absolute poverty.  Youth unemployment stands at 60 percent, with no social safety nets of any kind. Income inequalities are deepening. Our physical infrastructures remain in an abysmal state. If we have a serious economic team we can create a $1 trillion economy within a decade. The arduous task of rebuilding our country is only beginning.

OBADIAH MAILAFIA