There is the saying that ‘our strength lies in our population’. In many ways, yes. It is also true that our population can be a curse. In fact, Nigeria’s projected population growth seem to suggest the later. We don’t plan with our growing population in mind and thus questions what strength our population can mirror.
But how is Nigeria’s population the issue? Last year, I came across the United Nations, World Population Prospects population data which projected Nigeria’s population to hit 793 million by 2100 (medium variant). My initial reaction was one of denial. But as I continued my research, I came across some population estimates: human population 196 million, median age 17.9 years, fertility rate 5.67 children per mother.
A fertility rate of 4 children per mother means double population growth and a rate of 6 children per mother means triple population growth. Note the geometric progression. Thus, a fertility rate average of 5.67 implies that a couple (two people) will increase to more than 5 people (children) by the next generation. Now, factor this with a median age distribution of 17.9 years (young, sexually active, potential procreators) what you get is ‘boom’ population explosion.
If I still had doubts about Nigeria’s population growth projection, it was cleared after a recent chat with a friend. Using instances of her immediate family (mostly residing in rural communities), she said three have 7 children or more, another five have 6 children and many already with 4 and counting. The rather unfortunate thing is that most of the ‘women’ in her litany were still in their 30’s and some of them are already grandparents.
While the problem of population explosion is more in rural area, the situation in urban area is also worrisome. While at a tertiary hospital in the heart of Abuja recently, something caught my attention. And that was the number of women either pregnant or carrying a child two years or less. So, out of curiosity, I decided to do a quick count of the total number of women who were either pregnant or carrying a baby below two years (visual estimates) while I waited in the out-patient department. Of the 73 women that I counted, 64 were either pregnant or carrying a baby; a whopping 88%. Right there was my shock.
For our population to be our strength, we must think about today and tomorrow. China is able to harness the strength in her population as a result of planning. Canada in growing her population with migrants because of futuristic planning.
The truth is that our unplanned population growth has damning consequences. According to a 2015 research publication ‘planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet’, we are within or have gone pass four of the nine control variable that defines these planetary boundaries. And scientific evidence clearly shows that human activities resulting from growing population and changing lifestyle is driving these variables beyond the safe limits.
To conceptualise unplanned population growth, the large number of kids across the country that roam our streets are a direct consequence. Estimates indicate there are about 13.2 million children out of school. That is just one impact.
Uncontrolled population growth has damning impact on existing infrastructure. It means uncontrolled migration. It means increased number of poor people; literally meaning failure to achieve Goal 1 of the SDGs. It means emergence of new diseases and number of people affected by such diseases. It means smaller and smaller land holding for subsistence farmers. It means increased resource consumption. It means increased instances of resource based conflicts. It means large scale depletion of our forests. It means increased number of climate change impact victims.
Simply put, uncontrolled population has impact on the planet, our people and their prosperity. On the other hand, controlled population growth means a couple replacing themselves – having maximum of two children.
Unfortunately, most families in Nigeria have three or more children. Reflecting the fact that Nigeria’s population is growing outside what is considered controlled. And this is happening amidst shrinking resources.
But what is driving Nigeria’s population growth? Let’s discuss a few of them.
Age at marriage. Early marriage means ‘she’ has longer period for childbearing. This is common with girls from poor, rural homes and are often not or minimally educated. And since human life abhors vacuum, she gets busy with warming her husband’s bed and bearing children for longer period.
Poor knowledge and access of family planning. Access to culturally sensitive family planning programs can drastically lower (on a voluntary basis) fertility rates. But in many homes the woman may get the beating of her life for denying her husband sex. In fact society may tags her as going against natures command.
Low participation of women in labour force. When people are involved with work, they tend to reduce the occasions for procreation. But in some cultures, women are not allowed to work at all. These social discrimination ultimately keep these women at home making babies one after the other.
Rural versus urban family residence. Typical rural tradition support having many children. The more children a man has, the larger the portion of land he inherits. Additionally, children are seen as farm assets. But sadly, the land is shrinking; climate is changing and ecological burden heightening.
Child survival perception. The fear of child death drives families to have more children. This is understandable considering that Nigeria’s under-5 mortality rate in 2017 was estimated to be about 100 per 1000 births. Thus, human tendency of risk averment means families will plan to have more children to compensate for a child’s death. Providing good public health facilities to keep children alive can restore child survival confidence.
In conclusion, the need for controlled population growth is resultant from the fact that a ‘793 million people’ Nigeria is unsustainable and must be avoided because it will exacerbate hunger, poverty, inequality, land resource induced violence etc. which the global goals for sustainable development aim to reconcile. While God – the all-knowing – admonish the people to be fruitful and multiple and subdue the earth, this author posits that it must be done within reason. And public policy must lead the advocacy for lower fertility rate.
Emmanuel Unaegbu
Unaegbu writes from Abuja
