• Thursday, March 28, 2024
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BusinessDay

Comparing Nigeria and Brazil at 200m population marker

population

Nigeria recently entered the 200 million population milestone, underscoring the high rate of population growth over the last 20 years. At the beginning of our Fourth Republic in 1999, the Nigerian population was 119.3 million. At 200m, Nigeria now stands on population shoulder to shoulder with Brazil, also classified as a developing country. On all relevant economic indices, however, Nigeria is miles behind the South American country.

Comparison of the statistics clearly shows that Nigeria should worry about poverty and growing immiseration and commence long-term national plan to tackle the coming anarchy.

Population brings many challenges. It also represents opportunities. For Nigeria, thus far, a high population seems to spell only poverty as our figures keep going south. It is thus an issue that calls for serious national introspection.

Brazil houses 208million people with estimates of 212.39million people for 2019. The Federative Republic of Brazil is the largest country in South America and Latin America. It is ranked fifth in population and size globally. Analysts describe Brazil as an economic powerhouse, one of the world’s largest democracies and a country successfully raising millions out of poverty over the last five years.

On the contrary, in that period, Nigeria has continually deepened poverty. One more Nigerian falls into the poverty ranks of persons earning less than $1 a day every six days. Our population is growing at a faster pace than production and income.

Compare the numbers. Nigeria’s 2019 budget provides for N8.9trillion or approximately US$30billion. Brazil’s budget for 2019 is a humongous US$257billion. Dividing the budgets by the population shows which country can better serve its citizens with the 2019 budget.

For many years, the World Bank and other multilateral institutions warned about the large numbers of Nigerians earning less than $1 day. It is clear now that they were obliquely referencing Nigeria as a one dollar a day economy. That is what simple division of the budget by our population depicts. Of course, economies are more complex matters, but this thumbnail picture is sobering.

Take GDP figures. Annual GDP is US1.8billion for Brazil and US397million for Nigeria. Per capita GDP in 2018 was US$8926 compared to Nigeria’s US$2081.  Nigeria is number 31 in the ranking of GDP of the 196 countries the Financial Times tracks. In terms of GDP per capita, we stand in the 147th position.

Brazil’s GDP places it in the ninth position out of 196 countries. Its per capita GDP of US$8, 873 puts it at 77th position.

For many years, Nigeria prided in its ostensible wealth. Officials believed the country had enough resources from its oil to live the life. A former Head of State claimed incorrectly that the country’s challenge was not lack of money but how to spend it.

The country has entered the Malthusian trap from such incorrect thinking. We utilised the abundance such as offered by the surge in oil prices for seeking and maintaining a national preference for ostentatious living rather than building and maintaining a high standard of living. Nigeria is a poor country and would get poorer if we do not do something with the population bulge.

A Malthusian cloud hangs over the country. The uncontrolled growth of population over the years demands strategic actions that would turn the vast numbers into an asset rather than the current liability the figures show. Nigeria requires policies that would stimulate the economy and indeed lead it to leapfrog current developments in many areas.

Reordering priorities is one of the key measures. Nigeria allocates low quotas from its budget to the most critical areas of health, education, infrastructure and agriculture.  Education has always received less than ten percent of the federal budget. In Brazil it is an average of 16 percent. Similar figures apply to health.

Technology was central and contributory to the West overcoming the initial population challenge identified by Thomas Malthus. Technology fuelled a revolution in industry, agriculture and infrastructure. Job creation was a natural concomitant.

Technology remains the child of education. Education focused on humand development is the furnace of technology. Nigeria needs to reform its educational paradigm and pedagogy to focus on problem solving on the foundation of Science, Technology,  Engineering, Arts and Mathematics (STEAM). The youth bulge should be a competitive edge rather than an albatross.

Nigeria does not need to look too far for a holistic development paradigm. The nation could work to implement the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Implementing its 17 goals as Nigerian goals and scrupulously monitoring at federal and state levels will change our trajectory and deliver excellent results by 2030. We could marry it with the African Union’s Agenda 2050.

Get going now.