This is Nigeria’s political transition season, when the citizens have a chance to elect new governments, or extend the mandates of the existing ones, both at the national and subnational levels. It comes every four years, and during that period, so many things, good and bad, happen together. The costs and consequences of this transition are so heavy in financial, social and economic terms that some people have suggested that four years is too short for us to repeat such heavy financial and socio-economic costsimplied by the elections.
One of the things that happen during elections times in Nigeria is that everybody acquires a new career in politics, either as a contestant, critic, cheer leader or analyst. But among all of these, the analysts seem to be the most passionate and committed to their role. They are at work everywhere and every time. From the poverty-stricken beer parlours in Orile-Iganmu to the lush wine bars and lounges in Lekki Phase 1, men and women, old and young, hungry and well-fed, jobless and extremely busy; even with or without voters’ cards, engage one another in fierce debates in an effort to promote one candidate or the other. In fact, some of these debates in bars and beer parlours raise more critical issues and answer more important questions than many of the national election debates that feature the real candidates for election. How valuable it would be to garner and synthesize the views of these freelance political analysts.
At this time also, tension and passion rise, desperation increases and unverified facts comingle with lies, which flow uncontrollably. In some cases, fights break out between supporters of candidates who, sadly, may never ever come in physical contact with the candidates they fight to promote. That is how much Nigerians love politics, and how far they are prepared to go to defend their positions; just as the real candidates do fierce battles in what many of them have called a do or die battle to win elections. It is indeed, becoming a truism in Nigeria that once politics enters, every other thing, including common sense, takes a bow and leaves. And so do many things that improve the standard of living of the people – real productive work. How do we ensure that vital economicactivities is not stalled?
One of the overriding objectives of every well-meaning government is to provide its people with a high standard of living. This objective, among many others, such as peace, and the security of lives and property, drive the actions of every such government. The Nigerian government has been focused on these objectives over the years, despite occasional slips that tend to cast doubts on its commitment to the overall good of the people. It is however the duty of government to take steps to ensure that its actions not only promote but are seen to truly promote the welfare of its people at all times, including times of political transition. It is very easy to be distracted from this function, when elections are at hand, hence the need for this comment. The public good is the main essence of political transition and the welfare of citizens should not be compromised on the altar of politics.
Coming at a time when the effects of the last recession are still evident on the streets of Nigeria, and more than half of its over 190 million citizens live in abject poverty, the 2019 general elections have the potentials for throwing the country back into recession, if not properly managed. Indeed, it could have wider implications than the political outcomes easily imagined. Not only have economic activities slowed on account of the elections, and hence decreased the rate of financial flows to families, the uncertainties surrounding all categories of investment have increased. Although foreign investment, especially portfolio investments, has been flippy floppy; and not exactly reflecting its usual behaviour at election time, the overall impact on foreign investment is still likely to be substantially negative, especially in view of the tension being generated by certain actions of the authorities as elections approach. We must therefore, protect our national social welfare by ensuring that non-political institutions and agencies continue to be so and discharge their duties in nonpartisan ways.
Among the key challenges facing developing countries, and in particular, those in the Sub-Saharan Africa region, are unemployment, inequality, ignorance and disease. These are major sign posts of leadership failure. They entail the powerlessness and deprivation. They vitiate the value of citizenship and unravel its benefits. But these can be tackled if we recognize the clearly established link between poverty and the extent to which people have access to finance and financial services– financial inclusion. Excluded people have no story to tell about the national economy. This is why governments all over the world are bent on increasing people’s access to finance. Nigeria has recently revised its financial inclusion programme with a target of 80 per cent inclusion by 2020. We should continue to implement this strategy despite the need to concentrate and win elections. Economic welfare reversals are usually hard to reverse.
We are experiencing slow growth around the world and this will likely continue in 2019 with telling consequences on our economies. Africa’s natural resource exporters, like oil rich Nigeria, will continue to require strong economic leadership to effectively manage their dwindling revenues. We still have a history of growth that is not evenly shared over the foreseeable period. One of the reasons for the evident inequity in the distribution of the benefits of growth in Nigeria is that many of our people operate outside the loop of the financial flows while most of the benefits of growth pass through financial institutional channels.
Emeka Osuj
