Brazil 2014 World Cup: Group B analysis

 Group B

Group B at the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil will be heavily shaded with hues of South Africa 2010, the section kicking off with nothing less than a repeat of the title decider from four years ago. Reigning world champions Spain must thus tussle with 2010 runners-up the Netherlands in a group in which Australia and Chile – the latter also having clashed with Vicente del Bosque’s men in the first round on African soil – will be hoping to upset the heavyweight European duo in the race for the Round of 16.

 The teams

 SPAIN

Strengths: Having conceded just three goals in qualifying while scoring in every match, Spain are still the team that everyone will want to avoid. Despite their reputation for crafting exquisite passing moves, they created more than one in five of their goals from corners: a higher proportion than all but three sides. Their impressive defence conceded no goals from outside the area nor from the wings – not that much of a pattern can be discerned from such a miserly total.

Weaknesses: The reigning world champions did let two leads slip during qualifying, with both Finland and France coming from behind to take a point from them. Given their relatively modest scoring total, a solitary goal might be enough to take a point from them on a good day.

Prospects: The draw wasn’t overly kind to Spain, with their opening game against their 2010 final opponents the Netherlands one of the toughest and most fascinating starts imaginable. Chile’s defence have been weakest in the centre of the pitch where Spain’s attack have been the strongest, with only Argentina creating more of their goals away from the flanks. Australia are their weakest opponents on paper but the number of late goals they scored – over half came in the final 15 minutes – means that they shouldn’t be dismissed too readily.

NETHERLANDS

Strengths: The Dutch scored freely in qualifying, netting at least twice in every qualifying match: one of only two teams to do so. Only two finalists created a greater share of goals down the left wing, with a third of their goals being fashioned from this area. They were particularly menacing from long range, with the second highest proportion of goals from outside the penalty box.

Weaknesses: Long shots were also something of a weakness at the other end, with 40% of the efforts that found a way past their defence coming from distance. Their own prowess from range may have been driven by necessity, with the fourth lowest proportion of goals scored from inside their opponents’ six-yard box.

 Prospects: Neither Spain nor Australia look particularly susceptible to long range efforts, so this may necessitate a rethink of their attacking plans. More interestingly, none of their group opponents gave much quarter down their right flanks, so the left wing is also less likely to be a source of goals for the Dutch.

 CHILE

 Strengths: Only two sides converted more chances from close range than Chile, with almost 40% of their goals arriving from inside the six yard box, partly driven by their success from corners. At the back they proved resilient to similar tactics, rarely conceding from set pieces, and patrolled their flanks well.

 Weaknesses: Chile’s defensive performances were their biggest problem in qualifying: they conceded an average of over 1.5 goals per game – the most of any finalist – and didn’t recover a single point from the six matches in which they fell behind. Even when ahead things were far from certain, with no side taking a smaller share of points from winning positions.

 Prospects: This will be a tough group for Chile, competing alongside 2010’s eventual finalists who both qualified easily this time around and didn’t let any side score from close range against them. None of their Group B opponents conceded from a corner in qualifying either and even the weakest side on paper, Australia, were strong at coming from behind.

 AUSTRALIA

Strengths: The Australians ruled the skies in qualifying, scoring the third highest proportion of headers and not conceding a single one in return. This was in large part down to their industriousness down the flanks, with only two sides creating a higher percentage of their goals from wide positions. They also garnered a reputation for striking late with over half of their goals being netted in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Weaknesses: In FIFA Rankings terms, Australia are the weakest side in the finals at 59th, having dropped 26 positions over the last year. Runners-up in their qualifying group, they missed out on top spot due to a poor defensive record that saw them only keep clean sheets in around a third of their matches. They were punished on the counter attack more than any other finalist.

Prospects: Unfortunately for Australia their strength on the wings may be of limited use given that they’re up against the three nations who conceded the smallest percentages of goals from wide positions. The size of the task facing them can be seen from a glance at the FIFA Rankings: no side’s group stage opponents have a higher average FIFA Ranking.

Spain open their title defence against two teams they defeated on the road to victory in South Africa, while their squad should feature many of the same key players that have enjoyed so much success since 2008. Providing a formidable obstacle to La Roja are a Dutch side that qualified for Brazil 2014 in impeccable style, spearheaded by 11-goal striker Robin Van Persie – without dispute a leading figure in Louis Van Gaal’s revamped Oranje.

Chile, for their part, finished third in South American Zone qualifying and go into the global showpiece endowed with a talented generation headed by Barcelona’s Alexis Sanchez and Juventus’ Arturo Vidal. Embracing an attacking style of play, their current coach Jorge Sampaoli, who stepped in for Claudio Borghi in late 2012, has continued to build on the legacy left by Marcelo El Loco Bielsa.

Australia, for whom Brazil 2014 will be their fourth World Cup and third in a row, could prove a very hard-to-define quantity. A qualifying campaign packed with ups and downs, plus the arrival of new coach Ange Postecoglou means this is a genuine transitional phase for the Socceroos.

 Players to watch

Xavi (ESP), Andres Iniesta (ESP), Xabi Alonso (ESP), Arjen Robben (NED), Robin Van Persie (NED), Rafael Van Der Vaart (NED), Arturo Vidal (CHI), Alexis Sanchez (CHI), Claudio Bravo (CHI), Tim Cahill (AUS), Lucas Neill (AUS).

 Did you know?

Triumph at South Africa 2010 made Spain the eighth different nation to win the World Cup and the very first to do so after beginning their bid with a defeat. Del Bosque’s charges were beaten 1-0 by Switzerland in their competition opener.

ANTHONY NLEBEM