Controversy trails purported ceasefire agreement between FG and Avengers

There are conflicting reports over the purported agreement reached by Federal Government and the militant group, Niger Delta Avengers to cease hostilities for one month pending the outcome of current negotiation efforts.

Media reports, citing a source from the Petroleum Ministry said an agreement has been reached for a one-month ceasefire agreement but the militants debunked such claims through their Twitter handle stating,“The NDA high command never remembers having any agreement on ceasefire with the Nigerian government.”

The negotiations have been facilitated between the Federal Government and the militants, using back channels, mostly respected personalities from the region.

Last week, there were reports of threats to these talks when a power struggle among competing Niger Delta militants such as Reformed Egbesu Boys, Egbesu Water Lions and Egbesu Mythier Fraternity, Niger Delta Avengers and the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger-Delta, (MEND) over who is the right representatives for the region sparked fears it may derail truce talks.

“It is paramount, that the Federal Government of Nigeria should, as a matter of urgency, swing into action to create opportunities for the host communities,” advised Henry Biose, petroleum economics policy researcher with the University of Port Harcourt, in response to news about truce talks.

Attacks on Nigeria’s oil and gas infrastructure have crimped over 800,000 barrels per day of production according to figures from the NNPC.

This has resulted to over N60 billion loss of revenue to the federation account within the last three months, NNPC operations reports say.

Meanwhile, data from Windward maritime intelligence firm and Thomson Reuters indicate that a far smaller drop in exports from April to May has actually hit Nigeria’s crude output, despite reports to the contrary. It noted that Nigerian oil production is more resilient than many thought.

Analysis of shipping information examined by Windward indicated that Nigerian crude export dropped by just 62,000 barrels per day from April hence seeing exports rise to over 1.8million barrels in May.

The company tracks all exports coming from Nigeria including crude oil, condensates and ship-to-ship transfers, hence its figures are mostly higher than estimates of crude oil production.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) last month said Nigeria’s crude oil production for May averaged 1.4 million barrels per day, down 15 percent from the April and lower than last quarter output of 1.8 million bpd.

The oil cartel arrived at the figure by calculating losses arising by shut-in of over 250,000 barrels per day production on Forcados terminal.

In recent times, refiners from India, Indonesia and United States have been shunning Nigeria’s crude oil due to anxiety created by constant attacks from Niger Delta Avengers putting the country’s oil output under force majures.

Four of Nigeria’s superior four grades- Qua Iboe, Brass River, Forcados and Bonny light, all under force majure and this has presented a challenge to oil refiners who worry about uncertainty over Nigeria’s oil.

Stakeholders have urged the government to adopt a holistic approach in engagement with the militants. Genesis Aigbokhan, a downstream oil and gas industry operator told BusinessDay that keen attention must be paid to social problems in the region to foster true peace.

“In the matter of social amenities and the basic things of life as the region shows no visible sign of development, and this has to change.”

“Government has to pay serious attentions to development issues in the region. How many ports are working in the Niger Delta? Government needs to resuscitate the ports in Niger Delta, and oil companies should engage in development, build infrastructure and facilities in the Niger Delta,” said  Chris Ekiyor, former leader of the Ijaw Youth Movement in response to questions.

ISAAC ANYAOGU