Day of multiple reflections

Today April 6 is my birthday. There is something about birthdays that gets me (more) reflective and (perhaps) philosophical. So forgive me if I have multiple tracks going on in my mind.

Numbering my days…

My last birthday, April 6 2015 was a milestone-I was fifty years old. I celebrated with the launch of two books -“Uncomplex Strategy: Making Business Strategy Accessible to Managers, Entrepreneurs and Students” and “Democracy without Democrats: Travails of Politics and Development in Nigeria 1999-2011” on April 2 last year. I still owe significant appreciation to all those who made last year’s intellectual “party” so fulfilling for me-Tosin Runsewe, Rasheed Olaoluwa, Mezuo Nwuneli, Adedoyin Odunfa, Larry Ettah, Jimi Agbaje, Jide Sanwoolu, Ayo Gbeleyi, Juan Elegido, Enase Okonedo and many others. My wife of two and a half decades (and seven years before that!!!), Oluwatoyin, threw a real party after the panel discussion and book launch, on my actual birthday, so it was not all grammar! I have maintained a tradition of marking my birthday only once a decade so having had a “celebration” in 2015, I am certainly taking it quiet and easy today.

Today I am thinking about a lot! I’m remembering my late parents, Solomon Babatunde Agbaje and particularly my late mother, Margaret Ojuola Agbaje, and her admonitions! There are two that ring in my head, even now. My mum never tired of telling us that her mother, our grandmother, “Alhaja” never had to talk to her with her mouth-her eyes were sufficient communication!!! The other statement I will never forget is “isekii pa eniyan; ayo lo ma n’paeniyan”-hunger or poverty does not kill (a hard working person)-it is carelessness and a carefree attitude that kills”. And then I’m remembering Ebenezer Obey’s songs. The “ketekete” (donkey) album is one I really love-the story of a man and his son going on a journey with their donkey and their vain efforts to please different passers-by who complained successively when the man sat on the donkey leaving his son walking behind; when the man put his son on the donkey while he walked along; or when both father and son mounted the donkey(“efe pa keteketeni”-do you want to kill the donkey!) until exasperated both father and son dis-mounted and walked behind the donkey! Yet the next passer-by complained that the man and his son were “eru aye” (literarily “slaves of the world”) leading our traveler to the signal lesson-kos’ogbonte le da; kosiwate le hu; kosionate le mo; te le fi te aye lorun o (there is no wisdom, behavior or means to please the world)-Obey’s song has had such abiding impact on me that any time I am confronted with such “ketekete” scenarios, I mutter “ketekete people” to myself, and go ahead happily to please myself, my conscience and my God!!!

Meanwhile, may I say happy birthday to my famous birthday mates-Otunba Gbenga Daniel, Pastor Ituah Ighodalo and Mrs.Abimbola Fashola.

Hot, dry and dark days!!!

The weather has been particularly hot and humid in the last few weeks. Things have not been helped by the shameful petroleum supply situation and dismal electricity generation which have gotten worse, not better in the last few months. The petrol scarcity is simply a consequence of incompetent policy and missed opportunities. The country was by-and-large mentally prepared for downstream petroleum sector deregulation by May 2015 with global oil markets ideally suited for the policy as well. The political elite had conspired to sabotage the courageous and correct attempt by ex-President Jonathan to deregulate the sector in January 2012! When Ibe Kachikwu was appointed NNPC head, he immediately spoke the truth about what was required-deregulate the downstream, sell-off the refineries and move ahead on legislation to reform the upstream, and the sector’s regulatory and institutional structures. He has since read his boss’ “body language” and the country is now engaged in needless, pointless and fruitless “government magic”, apologies to Fela Anikulapo. Nigerians have been “suffering and smiling” and if you prefer the truth as originally revealed by Kachikwu until he was persuaded to be more “politically correct”, our sufferings are not likely to end any time soon. The current horrendous queues are a throwback to the military regime of General Sani Abacha and Nigerians are finally no longer smiling. I sympathize with Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, perhaps the biggest investor in the 2015 “change” project who responded in indignation as public support in the aftermath appears to be frittered away by weak policy and insensitive comments such as Kachikwu’s statement that he was not a “magician” and could do nothing about the current fuel queues until May 2016!!!

The power supply situation is compounding public anger, inconvenience and despair! Presidential spokesman, Femi Adesina made a similarly insensitive statement when he was reported to have advised those concerned with massive electricity outages to engage with whoever was sabotaging gas and power infrastructure in the Niger-Delta. Actually my quite authoritative information is that no one is certain the current damage to the Forcados Gas Infrastructure is as a result of sabotage. Highly placed industry sources have indicated it could reasonably be due to normal mechanical failure and the process of repair is ongoing. The bad news is that until repair of that critical infrastructure is complete, the power supply situation may remain the same! The medium to long term solution is to expand and diversify gas-to-power supply and distribution assets through increased investment in capturing and commercializing the country’s gas endowments.The other point to remember is that government is today no longer in control of the generation and distribution segments of the electricity industry, and is focused on securing improvements to the transmission segment. The good news is that we have a very competent minister, Babatunde Fashola in charge who is planning and executing a long term sustainable and effective strategy for the sector. Unfortunately Fashola and his colleagues have only been in office for four months so it is too early to expect radical change.

And dangerous days…

The menace of so-called “Fulani herdsmen” is now perhaps the most dangerous threat to safety of lives and property in Nigeria. The herdsmen have been at it for the past few years, especially in central Nigeria, but the scale of their “activities” is now unquestionably national! The massacre of hundreds in Agatu, Benue State is yet to attract a definitive response from the government of Nigeria, which itself now stands accused at the International Criminal Court (ICC) of massacring up to a thousand Shiites in Zaria, Kaduna State. One global report has reportedly counted the “herdsmen” (who carry AK 47 rifles which reportedly cost around N400,000.00 each!!!) as the world’s fourth most lethal “terrorist group” measured by number of people killed!!! It is curious and inexplicable that till today, Nigeria has not arrested or prosecuted a single herdsmen for the atrocities committed all over the nation. On the other hand, many members of Independent People of Biafra (IPOB) who at least for now are yet to start an armed insurrection, have been killed by security forces. Meanwhile regarding the herdsmen, the strategy appears to resemble official blackmail and terrorism-“agree to provide grazing routes for the herdsmen through your areas, or they will continue to kill you!!!”

El-Rufai and religious freedom…

I thought that Nasir El-Rufai started somewhat impressively as Kaduna state governor, and I had an opportunity to tell him so, but he appears to have now embarked on a very controversial, and in my view clearly unconstitutional path. El-Rufai wants to regulate the practice of religion (actually Islam and Christian religions-presumably his proposed law implicitly proscribes the preaching of any other religion!) in Kaduna state. He proposes to set up “committees” composed of members of Jama’tulNasril Islam (JNI) and Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) which will issue licenses to preachers of Islam and Christianity! The implication for instance may be that a Muslim Cleric or Christian Pastor who does not wish to join JNI or CAN would be unlikely to secure licenses to preach their faiths! These committees are only half the story, as they will be “supervised” by an “inter-ministerial committee” presumably composed of El-Rufai’s commissioners, civil servants and appointees! The implication is that the licenses will actually be issued by the state government! All preachers located in Kaduna State must obtain and renew the government’s license to preach their faith every year and visiting preachers must obtain permits from these committees!!! By El-Rufai’s proposed law, the state government secures a veto over the preaching and practice of religious faiths in Kaduna state! There are several other obnoxious provisions in Nasir El-Rufai’s proposed law. The bill is sacrilegious both from the point of view of faith and the Nigerian constitution and it MUST be opposed. You may be sure that if the law is passed in Kaduna, like Sani Yerima’s Sharia law in Zamfara, it would be quickly replicated in eleven or twelve other states in Northern Nigeria, and maybe elsewhere as well!

365 days later…

On March 28, 2015, Nigerians elected General Muhammadu Buhari as their President on a mandate of “Change” anchored on anti-corruption, security and economic development/jobs. There appears to be progress with Boko Haram, but relief in the North-East is being offset by the rampaging Fulani herdsmen across the nation. It is also clear that while Boko Haram has been weakened, it has not been defeated technically or otherwise. While the government’s battlefield approach is evident, there is no clear counter-insurgency strategy and I have no reason to think that terrorism founded on an extremist religious ideology can be defeated exclusively by force!

So far Buhari’s only clear policy anchor is anti-corruption, and while there is a lot of motion, momentum and rhetoric on that front, ten months into the administration, there is yet no single conviction. The anti-corruption agencies’ strategy appears to be long on propaganda and media trials, but significantly short on the careful forensic investigations and evidence gathering that facilitates successful criminal prosecution. Meanwhile as we fight the past corruption of PDP administrations, the current FX regime (with a N120 arbitrage opportunity between official and real exchange rates) has created probably the largest officially-sanctioned corruption scam in Nigeria’s history!!!

On the economy, the results are an unmitigated disaster! We did not have a cabinet for seven months and we yet do not have a rational economic policy framework; there is no 2016 budget as at April 5, 2016 and minimal economic activity as the economy is starved of resources, petrol and electricity; unemployment and under-employment are rising rapidly even according to official data, as GDP growth slows to just above 2 percent, with per capita incomes falling and poverty increasing; and foreign direct and even domestic investment are grinding to a halt. We are unable to take simple policy decisions regarding output, subsidies, markets, taxes, exchange rates and investment, and the policy and economic outlook has weakened significantly. Something will have to CHANGE!!!

 

Opeyemi Agbaje