Succession battle brews as Northern bigwigs position for 2031

… Atiku’s 2027 bid may alter calculations – Analyst

Even as Nigeria’s political class remains fixated on the immediate calculations of the 2027 presidential election, a potentially more consequential battle is quietly taking shape in the background; the struggle for the post-Tinubu presidency.

While some of the leading 2027 presidential running mates are already leveraging the election to build national visibility and consolidate their political networks, other influential Northern politicians are quietly positioning themselves for the succession contest, making 2031 an election many political actors may already be planning for.

Analysts say the succession battle has effectively begun with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s decision to contest the 2027 presidential election on the platform of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

BusinessDay reports that his candidacy challenges the prevailing political convention of power rotation between the North and the South and signals that the North is not prepared to wait passively for the presidency to return to the region after President Bola Tinubu’s possible second term.

Should Atiku fail to unseat Tinubu in 2027, analysts believe the 2031 presidential race could become even more crowded, with the presidency conventionally expected to return to the North after Tinubu’s eight years in office.

Indeed, the early positioning is already becoming evident. Findings indicate that potential contenders are building alliances, expanding their national visibility and, in some instances, seeking to plant loyal political allies and protégés in strategic positions.

Read also: Atiku queries Tinubu over N12.8trn Service-Wide Vote

Ahead of the April and May party primaries, some of the political bigwigs were already strategising to install their allies and loyalists in key positions, in a calculated effort to build the support base they would need when their presidential ambitions eventually come to the fore.

Analysts say for many of these politicians, the 2027 contests are, therefore, not merely about winning offices but also about securing the political structures, networks and loyalists capable of powering a presidential bid four years later.

Top sources disclosed that the two clearest figures whose 2027 roles could directly shape their 2031 presidential ambitions are Vice President Kashim Shettima and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the vice presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).

However, Jackson Ojo, a political analyst, has said Shettima’s prospects of contesting the 2031 presidential election would depend largely on whether Atiku wins the 2027 poll and commits to a single term.

In a telephone interview with BusinessDay, Ojo said Shettima would have been out of office for four years by 2031 if Atiku defeats President Tinubu in 2027, but warned that northern calculations for the next presidential succession could be premature.

“I believe Shettima will be out of the Presidential Villa by May 29, 2027, if Atiku takes over. He would have been out of office for at least four years as a retired politician by 2031, but not a tired one.

“Therefore, the northern calculation depends on whether Atiku promises to serve only one term. If he does, somebody from northern Nigeria, either the North-East or North-West, could begin to position himself to succeed him.

“But if Atiku remains strong in office, mentally and physically, he will definitely serve two terms. So, for anybody in the North already calculating for 2031, I think it is too early to say,” he said.

On Atiku’s chances, Ojo said, “I don’t want to discuss what happens if Atiku is unable to win the presidential race in 2027 because I am too sure he is going to win.

“If Nigerians do not want to die of poverty and penury, and if they want corruption to be buried forever, then there is no way Atiku will not win. Look at what is happening in the country; poverty, corruption and everything else. Do you think God in heaven wants His people to continue suffering like this? His people must now go to the Promised Land. Atiku is the hope of this generation,” he said.

Kashim Shettima

Among the politicians whose 2027 roles could directly shape their 2031 prospects is said to be Shettima.

A banker-turned-politician, Shettima served as commissioner in several Borno ministries before becoming governor of the state from 2011 to 2019. He later represented Borno Central in the Senate before emerging as Tinubu’s running mate in the 2023 presidential election.

His experience as commissioner, governor, senator and vice president has given him a broad political résumé and a national platform few Northern politicians can presently match. Pundits have argued that a second-term victory with Tinubu could further elevate his profile and place him at the centre of the post-Tinubu succession calculations.