State Police: Readiness varies as fiscal realities confront constitutional reform

As Nigeria moves closer to adopting state police, analysts say the bigger challenge is no longer whether states should have their own police forces, but whether they have the financial strength, governance capacity and institutional structures to sustain them.

The National Assembly’s passage of the State Police constitutional amendment bill has reignited a debate that has lingered for decades. Proponents argue that decentralising policing is critical to tackling Nigeria’s worsening insecurity, while opponents fear it could be abused by state governors.

But beyond the constitutional and political arguments lies an equally pressing question: Are Nigerian states financially and institutionally prepared to establish and maintain their own police services?

The answer, according to security experts and fiscal analysts, is mixed.

While a handful of states have demonstrated stronger revenue growth, governance reforms and investments in local security structures, many others remain heavily dependent on federal allocations, raising questions about their ability to sustain one of the most expensive public institutions in government.

Policing comes with a hefty price tag

Unlike many government programmes that can be scaled up or down depending on available resources, policing requires continuous funding.

A state police service would require the recruitment and training of thousands of officers, construction of command headquarters, divisional offices, barracks and detention facilities, procurement of patrol vehicles, communication gadgets, arms, surveillance technology and forensic laboratories, as well as continuous spending on salaries, pensions, insurance, fuel, intelligence gathering and logistics.

Security experts say passing the constitutional amendment is only the beginning.

“The real challenge is not establishing state police,” a security analyst said “The bigger challenge is sustaining it over time.”

Although the State Police Bill empowers the National Police Council to certify states before establishing police services, set minimum operational standards and supervise both federal and state police forces, analysts argue that institutional approval alone cannot guarantee sustainability.

The real test, they say, is whether states have the economic capacity to fund policing over the long term.

Fiscal strength differs sharply across states

The 2025 State of States Report by BudgIT highlights the uneven fiscal capacity across Nigeria’s states.

Using Index A1, which measures states’ progress in growing internally generated revenue (IGR) while reducing dependence on federation transfers, Enugu emerged as the best-performing state, followed by Bayelsa, Abia, Osun and Kano.

The report notes that states ranking high on the index have significantly expanded their internally generated revenue and are gradually reducing their dependence on allocations from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC).

Further down the ranking are states such as Yobe and Kebbi, which recorded negative scores, indicating weak growth in internally generated revenue and continued dependence on federally distributed revenue.

The findings suggest that while some states are becoming more financially independent, many still rely heavily on monthly allocations from Abuja to fund basic government operations.

That reality has significant implications for state policing.

Unlike one-off capital projects, policing is driven largely by recurrent expenditure. Officers must be paid every month, equipment maintained, patrol vehicles fuelled and intelligence operations funded regardless of fluctuations in government revenue.

States already struggling to meet salary obligations or implement the new national minimum wage may find it difficult to absorb these additional responsibilities.

Debt burdens present another challenge

Beyond revenue generation, BudgIT’s Index C, which assesses fiscal sustainability and debt capacity, paints another layer of the readiness picture.

The index evaluates states using indicators such as debt-to-revenue ratio, debt service obligations, personnel costs relative to revenue and overall borrowing capacity.

States such as Akwa Ibom, Delta, Bayelsa, Zamfara and Yobe ranked highest, suggesting stronger fiscal space and healthier debt profiles.

At the other end of the spectrum were Kaduna, Edo, Cross River, Lagos and Bauchi, whose lower rankings suggest greater caution is needed in taking on additional financial obligations.

For analysts, these rankings reinforce the importance of looking beyond headline revenue figures when assessing readiness for state policing.

Even economically vibrant states may face constraints if debt servicing and personnel costs already consume significant portions of their revenues.

Existing security outfits offer a foundation, but not a complete solution

Some states would not be starting from scratch. Lagos has spent years investing in subnational security through the Lagos State Neighbourhood Safety Corps and the Lagos State Security Trust Fund, providing logistics, surveillance equipment and operational support for security agencies.

Similarly, the six South-West states established the Western Nigeria Security Network, popularly known as Amotekun, to complement conventional policing.

While Amotekun has demonstrated the potential of regional security arrangements, uneven funding across member states has limited its effectiveness in some areas.

In northern Nigeria, Kano and several other states operate Hisbah corps, although their primary responsibility is enforcing moral and religious regulations rather than conventional policing.

Analysts say these institutions could serve as administrative foundations for state police but would still require significant restructuring, professionalisation and funding.

Governance will determine success

Financial capacity alone will not guarantee effective policing.

The 2025 State Performance Index (pSPI) shows considerable differences in governance quality across states, particularly in public confidence, service delivery, transparency and institutional effectiveness.

States with stronger governance systems are likely to be better positioned to manage recruitment, discipline, accountability and operational oversight required for a modern police service.

Conversely, states with weaker institutions may struggle to prevent political interference, maintain professional standards or deliver effective policing even if they secure the necessary funding.

This partly explains why the State Police Bill gives the National Police Council responsibility for certifying states before they establish police services.

Capacity extends beyond funding

Kabiru Adamu, the MD of Beacon Security and Intelligence, believes one of the biggest gaps is institutional preparedness.

In a recent interview, he warned that establishing state police would require extensive training for officers, government officials and lawmakers responsible for oversight.

“These are the same persons that will probably start the training of the state police. Of course civil society organisations will come in to support, but are we ready in terms of capacity?” he asked.

According to him, widespread political support for state policing does not necessarily translate into an appreciation of the enormous effort required to make it work.

“There is buy-in, but does the buy-in appreciate this level of effort that is required?”

Only a few states may be ready

Ayọmide Akinwale, an analyst at SBM Intelligence, believes financial independence remains the biggest obstacle.

“Realistically, the states that can afford to finance their own policing services without over-dependence on the revenue allocation from the federal government are just four,” he said.

According to him, while the proposed law gives states greater control over policing, many still lack the economic independence required to sustain such a system.

“The policy introduces structural control, but in terms of economic independence, we cannot necessarily say that is the case.”

Akinwale noted that estimates from the police reform committee suggest implementing state policing nationwide could cost more than N5 trillion over five years, covering recruitment, infrastructure, training, equipment and operational expenses.

He argued that readiness should be assessed using three broad indicators: financial capacity, administrative capability and measurable security outcomes.

“The aspect of finance and the administrative architecture will be the key performance indicators,” he said, adding that the success of state police should ultimately be measured by reductions in kidnapping, terrorism and other violent crimes.

A phased approach may be inevitable

The evidence suggests Nigeria’s states are unlikely to begin the journey from the same starting point.

States with stronger internally generated revenue, healthier fiscal profiles, better governance systems and existing security structures appear better positioned to establish state police than those heavily reliant on federal allocations and constrained by weak institutions.

This disparity has prompted some analysts to advocate a phased implementation, allowing only states that meet defined fiscal, governance and institutional benchmarks to establish police services initially while others build capacity over time.

Such an approach, they argue, would reduce the risk of creating underfunded police organisations that could become ineffective or vulnerable to political interference.

Beyond constitutional reform

The debate over state police has largely focused on constitutional amendments and concerns about political abuse.

Yet, as the legislation moves closer to becoming law, the conversation is increasingly shifting from legality to practicality.

The question is no longer simply whether states should have police forces. It is whether they have the fiscal resilience, governance quality and institutional capacity to sustain them.

For many states, passing the constitutional amendment may prove to be the easiest step. Building and maintaining a professional, accountable and adequately funded police service may be the real test of Nigeria’s latest security reform.