BusinessDay 2027 Elections Insights poll on, “Is the government failing to protect us?” shows that most Nigerians believe the government has failed in its duty to protect lives and property, and many say this will shape how they vote.
Insecurity set to influence votes
Among respondents, 51.5% said insecurity, including the abduction of schoolchildren, will factor into their vote alongside other issues, while 48.5% said it will be their top factor. No respondent said the issue would not matter or that they remain undecided.
The numbers on government performance are stark. A total of 87.6% said the government has completely failed to protect lives and property, and 6.1% said it has partially failed. Only 6.1% said the government is doing its best with limited resources, and no one said the government is performing well.
“Will not vote for them again”
Responses to the open-ended section carry weight beyond the percentages. One respondent wrote: “No, I will not vote for them in 2027. Logically, failure to protect lives and property from harm/danger and respond responsibly to such harm/danger… is a fundamental breach of the social contract between government and citizens.”
Another respondent questioned the state of the security forces directly: “Criminals have become so bold, security forces are even threatened by the insurgents instead of the other way round.”
A number of respondents pointed to accountability, or the absence of it, as the root problem. One wrote that Nigeria’s system of governance “is built on weak institutions, personalised power, and a political culture that rewards survival over service,” adding that officials responsible for security “remain in office, issue statements, and move on” after each crisis.
Not every respondent ruled out voting for the current administration. One said: “I don’t trust the opposition to do better so I’d probably stick with the current bunch.”
Federal government bears most blame
Asked which level of government carries the most responsibility for rising kidnappings, 57.6% pointed to the federal government, and 39.4% said all levels share equal responsibility. State and local government were named by 3% and 0% respectively.
On safety compared with five years ago, 45.5% said they feel far less safe, and 42.4% said they feel less safe. Only 3% said they feel much safer now, and 9.1% said conditions feel about the same.
Support for state police, with reservations
On the question of a state police force, 48.5% said they support the idea without conditions, and 42.4% said they support it with conditions attached. A further 9.1% remained undecided, and no respondent opposed the idea outright.
Support came paired with concern over how state governors might use such a force. One respondent wrote that “if governors are the ones paying state police, then there will be abuse of power by the governors,” citing the saying that “he who pays the piper dictates the tone.”
Others argued the risk is worth taking. One respondent said state police “is a mere strategy,” and that “attainment of that power and execution thereof is another thing,” while stressing that citizens “certainly do not trust Nigerian leaders to do what is required.”
A separate response proposed a path forward, calling for “independent oversight commissions,” “transparent recruitment and promotions,” and “national standards for training and discipline” as conditions attached to any state police rollout.
Several respondents said the current federal police structure already suffers from the same politicisation they fear in a state model. One wrote: “About the same for the federal police today. The important question would be controls that are put in place to manage the forces.”
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