Banking sector splits into winners and losers after CBN stress tests – Rewane

Nigeria’s banking sector is increasingly divided between lenders with strong enough balance sheets to reward shareholders and those struggling with heavy provisioning requirements following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s stress-testing exercise, according to Bismarck Rewane, managing director and chief executive officer of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC).

Speaking at the Lagos Business School Breakfast session, Rewane said the regulatory exercise has effectively created two categories of banks, with some institutions emerging stronger while others face restrictions on dividend payments.

“The banking sector has seen moderate corrections since the start of the stress test,” Rewane said.

According to the presentation, banks that successfully cleared the exercise and paid dividends for the 2025 financial year include GTCO, Zenith Bank, Stanbic IBTC and Wema Bank.

GTCO declared a dividend of N11.76 per share, while Zenith Bank paid N8.75 per share. Stanbic IBTC paid N4.00 per share and Wema Bank declared N1.25 per share.

However, several major lenders were unable to pay dividends after being required to make significant provisions against potential losses.

These include Access Bank, First Bank, Fidelity Bank, FCMB, Ecobank and UBA.

Rewane said the suspension of dividend payments has reduced expected returns for investors and contributed to weakness in banking stocks.

“The CBN suspended dividend payments for most of the banks, reducing investor expected returns,” he said.

According to the presentation, investor sentiment toward the sector has also been affected by concerns over additional provisioning requirements linked to oil-sector exposures.

Rewane noted that the Supreme Court’s decision overturning the Nestoil asset freeze could result in approximately $1.1 billion in oil-related debt being reassessed, potentially increasing provisioning requirements for affected lenders.

The presentation showed that capital has increasingly rotated away from some banking stocks toward companies offering stronger dividend prospects.

Investors are also repositioning ahead of the anticipated Dangote Refinery initial public offering, which is expected to become one of the largest listings in the history of the Nigerian capital market.

Rewane said the shift in investor behaviour reflects a growing focus on dividend certainty and balance-sheet strength.

While the stress tests have weighed on some institutions, he argued that the exercise ultimately strengthens confidence in the banking sector by forcing lenders to recognise risks early and maintain stronger capital positions.

He added that banking stocks could remain under pressure in the short term as investors continue to assess the implications of dividend restrictions, provisioning requirements and evolving regulatory expectations.