Middle East war leads to 3.4% fall in air passenger demand in April

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for April 2026 global passenger demand showing total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), was down -3.4 percent compared to April 2025.

Excluding the Middle East, demand increased by 1.2 percent. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), decreased -2.9 percent year-on-year. The load factor was 83.1 percent (-0.4 ppt compared to April 2025).

International demand fell by -5.3 percent compared to April 2025. Excluding the Middle East, demand grew by 1.9 percent. Capacity was down -5.1 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.9 percent (-0.2 ppt compared to April 2025).

Domestic demand was flat compared to April 2025. Capacity increased 0.8 percent year-on-year. The load factor was 81.9 percent (-0.7 ppt compared to April 2025).

“The 46.6 percent fall in demand for carriers in the Middle East due to war in the region was so acute that it dragged overall demand down -3.4 percent.

“The situation for air transport remains highly volatile. The cost of jet fuel more than doubled in April, which is pushing airfares up. Forward schedule data is showing a reduced offering in the coming months, indicating that airlines are balancing high fuel costs and weaker demand,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

International RPK fell -5.3 percent, with capacity falling -5.1 percent. However, this decline was caused by continuing heavy falls in demand for Middle East carriers. Excluding the Middle East, RPK increased by 1.9 percent. North America was flat, and all other regions reported growth.

African airlines saw a 2.2 percent year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 1.2 percent year-on-year. The load factor was 77.9 percent (+0.7 ppt compared to April 2025).

Asia-Pacific airlines achieved a 3.0 percent year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 0.7 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was 87.5 percent (+1.9 ppt compared to April 2025), a record high for April. There was a notable slowdown in traffic on the Japan-China corridor due to ongoing political tensions.

European carriers saw a 0.9 percent year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 0.3 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.9 percent (+0.6 ppt compared to April 2025). Direct traffic between Europe and Asia increased 15.3 percent as it replaced traffic transiting through the Middle East.

North American carriers saw a 0.0 percent year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity decreased -1.1 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.9 percent (+0.9 ppt compared to April 2025).

Middle Eastern carriers saw a -48.1 percent year-on-year decrease in demand. Capacity fell -38.4 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was 70.1 percent (-13.1 ppt compared to April 2025).

Traffic was impacted by the ongoing Iran war, though the decline slowed a little compared to March, as an uneasy ceasefire came into effect.

Latin American airlines achieved an 8.9 percent year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 7.2 percent year-on-year. The load factor was 84.6 percent (+1.4 ppt compared to April 2025).