Fear of protest votes forces APC to abandon consensus arrangements

… Ruling party wary of repeating 2023 mistake

There is a growing sense within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) that its preferred strategy of adopting consensus candidates may not hold across key states, as internal disagreements threaten to upend carefully laid political calculations ahead of the 2027 general election.

At the heart of the unfolding tension is the Electoral Act 2026, which has significantly narrowed the options available to political parties. By scrapping indirect primaries, the law now compels parties to choose candidates either through direct primaries, where all registered members vote, or through consensus, a process that demands total agreement among aspirants.

On paper, consensus appears to be the easier route. In practice, it is proving to be one of the most contentious.

The law is explicit. Under Section 84(9), no aspirant can be coerced into stepping down; each must provide written consent. Where even a single aspirant refuses, the party is legally bound to conduct a direct primary. That provision, designed to deepen internal democracy, is now colliding with the APC’s political reality, multiple power blocs, entrenched interests, and ambitions that are unwilling to yield.

Thus amid rising internal tensions and growing public discontent, political analysts say the APC is quietly retreating from its long-standing reliance on consensus arrangements in selecting candidates, a strategy once seen as a tool for party unity but now viewed as a potential electoral liability.

Sources within the party, told told BusinessDay that APC leaders are increasingly wary that imposing candidates through consensus could trigger a wave of protest votes in the 2027 general election, especially among young voters and disillusioned party loyalists.

This was the situation in 2023 where many members and party chieftains who where dissatisfied with the consensus arrangements and handpicking of candidates by leaders, worked against the party in the presidential election, leading to the defeat of President Bola Tinubu in his home state of Lagos.

“The party has learned from that mistake in 2023, and even if leaders may have preferred aspirants they are been careful from public endorsement to avoid setting the party on fire”, an APC chieftain, who did not want his name in print told BusinessDay.

Earlier this month, the Lagos State Chairman of the APC, Cornelius Ojelabi, said the party has no anointed candidate for any elective position, ahead of the 2027 general election, to observers this was a clear departure from the past.

Ojelabi stressed that all positions are open for contest, adding that the party would not impose candidates on members.

According to him, Now that the convention is over, our main focus is the process of electing the candidates who will fly our party’s flag in the next election.

“I wish to state categorically that all the available positions are open for contest, as the party has no anointed candidate for any seat.

“We, therefore, encourage all members who wish to contest any of the positions to do so in accordance with the law,” he said.

The chairman noted that the exercise would be conducted in line with the timetable of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and relevant electoral laws.

As the primary election window opens from April 23 to May 30, 2026, observers say the early signs suggest a party struggling to balance control with cohesion.

In few states, the APC has managed to impose order. In Ogun State, Solomon Adeola Olamilekan Yayi emerged through a consensus arrangement, he is the senator representing Ogun West, for them, question of who be the party’s governorship candidate, appears settled, at least for now. But elsewhere, the cracks are widening.

Lagos State, often seen as the APC’s political stronghold, is already showing signs of strain. Strong indications that Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat may have been pencilled down as a consensus candidate have not gone down well with other aspirants. Among them is Abdul-Azeez Adediran(Jandor), who has openly rejected the arrangement and is pushing for a direct primary, setting the stage for a potential confrontation.

Many party members say the race in Lagos is still open, even though key leaders have their preferred aspirant.

Few of the governorship aspirants are still optimistic of their chances and forging ahead with consultations with stakeholders across the state ahead of the party’s primary.

Reports that Hazmat had won the race for the ticket was disputed, many of the aspirants and party leaders have stated that the report was false.

Last weekend, there were reports that the race was now narrowed down to Hazmat and former governor, Akinwunmi Ambode.

Observers say as it stands, the gubernatorial race in Lagos is still unclear.

“The situation is still hazy on who would emerge, the early aspirants frequently serve as “smokescreens” rather than eventual candidates”, Tunde Balogun, political analyst said.

Drawing parallels with the emergence of former governors Babatunde Fashola, Ambode and incumbent Babajide Sanwo-Olu, Balogun argued that the eventual flagbearer is often not the most visible at the outset. That pattern appears to be repeating itself.

Gbenga Ogunleye , spokesman for Adediran, who was the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate in 2023, told BusinessDay that they are hopeful the party will ensure a free and fair process.

“We are sure that the decision that will be taken, will be in the best interest of Lagos state and the party. We are very hopeful,” Gbenga told BusinessDay.

A similar pattern is emerging in Oyo State. While Sharafadeen Alli was initially touted as the consensus choice, the political equation shifted following the reported resignation and entry of Bayo Adelabu, the power minister, into the race. With competing ambitions now fully in play, the possibility of a smooth consensus appears increasingly unlikely.

In Nasarawa State, the situation has already escalated into open dissent. Governor Abdullahi Sule’s endorsement of Aliyu Wadada as his preferred successor, and presentation of him as a consensus candidate to Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has sparked protests within the party. Loyalists of ex-IGP Mohammed Adamu, also an aspirant, have pushed back forcefully, rejecting what they see as an attempt to sideline other contenders.

These flashpoints are not isolated. Across several states, similar undercurrents are building. Lawmakers at both national and state levels are said to be quietly lobbying the presidency, expressing frustration over what they perceive as attempts by governors to impose candidates in their constituencies.

Consensus offers speed, control, and reduced logistical burden. But it also risks alienating party members, deepening factional divides, and, ultimately, weakening the party’s electoral strength.

Direct primaries, on the other hand, are costly and complex, especially for a party with a large membership base, but they carry the legitimacy that consensus often lacks.

As the countdown to the primaries begins, the APC faces a defining test: whether it can manage its internal contradictions without undermining its chances at the polls. In a political season where ambition is peaking and stakes are high, observers say the choice between consensus and contest may well determine not just candidates, but the party’s unity going into the general elections.

“If mishandled, the controversy over candidate selection could weaken the party from within, handing its rivals a strategic advantage, I don’t think the APC want that ahead 2027,” Nonso Okoye, a political analyst said.