Africa risks missing $11trn mobile boom as device costs stall adoption

Africa could miss out on a rapidly expanding global mobile economy projected to reach $11.3 trillion by 2030, as high device costs, low smartphone adoption and digital skills gaps continue to slow internet usage across the continent, a new industry report has shown.

Globally, mobile technologies and services generated $7.6 trillion in economic value in 2025, equivalent to 6.4 percent of global GDP, and supported around 50 million jobs. But the benefits of this growth remain uneven, with Africa accounting for a disproportionate share of the world’s unconnected population.

The report estimates that more than three billion people globally are still not using mobile internet, despite most living in areas covered by mobile broadband networks. Africa alone represents about one-third of this unconnected population, highlighting a persistent usage gap rather than a coverage problem.

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Smartphone adoption remains a key barrier. Only about 24 percent of the population in Africa owned smartphones in 2024, the lowest rate globally, largely due to affordability challenges. In many parts of sub-Saharan Africa, the cost of a basic smartphone can account for as much as 26 percent of monthly income, far above global averages.

This affordability gap is slowing digital inclusion and limiting the continent’s ability to benefit from new technologies such as artificial intelligence, 5G and cloud services, which are driving growth in more advanced markets.

Global shift to AI-driven telecoms

The mobile industry is undergoing a structural shift from basic connectivity to advanced digital services powered by artificial intelligence.

About 45 percent of telecom operators globally now see AI-enabled services as a strategic priority, as they look to unlock new revenue streams beyond traditional voice and data offerings.

These opportunities include enterprise solutions, cloud computing, edge services and AI-powered applications across sectors such as healthcare, finance and manufacturing.

However, Africa risks lagging in this transition due to weaker digital infrastructure, lower enterprise adoption and limited investment capacity compared to developed markets.

While global telecom operators are moving into high-value AI services, many African operators are still focused on expanding basic connectivity and managing rising network costs.

5G expansion and infrastructure gaps

The rollout of 5G networks is expected to further widen the gap between advanced and developing markets.

Globally, 5G is projected to account for more than half of mobile connections by 2030, supported by strong investments in infrastructure and spectrum.

In Africa, however, 5G deployment remains limited, with most countries still reliant on 4G networks and, in some cases, legacy 2G and 3G systems.

The slower pace of deployment is linked to high spectrum costs, infrastructure deficits and lower consumer purchasing power, which reduce the commercial viability of next-generation networks.

Industry analysts say that without targeted policy support and investment incentives, Africa could fall further behind in the adoption of advanced mobile technologies.

eSIM and device innovation yet to scale

The report highlights the growing adoption of eSIM technology globally, which is expected to account for 42 percent of all SIM connections by 2030.

eSIM allows users to switch networks digitally without physical SIM cards and supports multi-device connectivity, making it a key enabler of future digital ecosystems.

However, adoption in Africa is expected to remain slow in the near term due to limited availability of compatible devices and lower penetration of high-end smartphones.

Device innovation is also increasingly driven by AI, with new smartphones designed to deliver personalised, real-time experiences. But such features remain largely out of reach for many African consumers.

Cybersecurity and trust concerns grow

As digital adoption increases, cybersecurity risks are becoming more pronounced.

More than 90 percent of telecom operators globally now use multi-layered security systems, while over 80 percent have formal response plans for cyber incidents.

Yet, African markets face additional challenges, including limited cybersecurity capacity and a shortage of skilled professionals, which could expose users and businesses to rising digital threats.

The global cost of cybercrime is projected to surge significantly in the coming years, further underlining the need for stronger digital resilience.

Industry pushes for affordable access

To address the digital divide, industry players are working to improve smartphone affordability and expand access.

Initiatives are underway to develop low-cost 4G smartphones tailored for African markets, alongside financing models to make devices more accessible.

Mobile operators are also investing in digital literacy programmes to improve awareness and usage of mobile internet services.

Experts say closing the usage gap will require a combination of lower device costs, better digital skills and more relevant local content.

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Policy reforms seen as critical

The report stresses that government policy will play a crucial role in determining Africa’s digital future.

Key priorities include reducing taxes on devices, improving access to spectrum and creating regulatory frameworks that encourage investment in infrastructure.

With mobile technologies expected to contribute over $11 trillion to the global economy by the end of the decade, analysts warn that Africa cannot afford to remain on the sidelines.

“Mobile is no longer just about connectivity. It is the foundation of the digital economy,” the report said, adding that inclusive growth will depend on ensuring that no region is left behind.

As the global telecoms industry pivots toward AI, automation and digital services, Africa’s ability to close its digital gap could determine whether it emerges as a key player or remains a marginal participant in the next phase of the mobile economy.