2027: Fragmented opposition faces fierce battle against Tinubu as APC tightens grip

A growing wave of defections into Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has deepened concerns among political analysts that the opposition may struggle to mount a credible challenge against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 general election without forming a broad-based alliance.

Across party lines, recent political movements have tilted momentum in favour of the APC, reinforcing its dominance at both federal and state levels. Analysts say the trend, if sustained, could further weaken already fragmented opposition parties such as the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP), unless they adopt a coalition strategy similar to the one that brought the APC to power in 2015.

In the past months, several high-profile politicians, including lawmakers, former governors, and influential grassroots mobilisers, have defected to the APC.

The PDP has lost about seven governors to the APC in the last one year. The party is now left with two governors- Bala Muhammed of Bauchi State and Seyi Makinde of Oyo State.

Although motivations vary from political survival to alignment with federal power, the cumulative effect has been a steady consolidation of the ruling party’s influence going into 2027 polls.

Kunle Adebayo, political analyst, noted that defections are not just symbolic but structural in their implications.

“What we are seeing is not just movement of individuals but the transfer of political machinery, structures, loyalists, and resources.

When these figures move, they don’t go alone.

That significantly weakens the opposition at the local and state levels,” he said.

He added that Nigeria’s electoral system, which often rewards incumbency and widespread political networks, gives the APC a clear advantage as it absorbs more actors into its fold.

Fragmented opposition faces uphill task
Despite dissatisfaction in some quarters over economic hardship and governance concerns, analysts argue that public discontent alone is not enough to unseat an incumbent government.

Yusuf Babalola, political analyst, told BusinessDay that the opposition are not helping themselves as it appears they have not learned from the mistake of 2023. He said that the way the opposition politicians were going they would make the election look easy for President Tinubu again.

“Certainly yes; looking at the 2023 election result, we would all agree that without alliance, they have no chance against the president.

“In 2023, what gave him victory was the division among opposition, Peter Obi was in LP, Atiku Abubakar in PDP and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso was in NNPP. The opposition votes all together would have cost the APC the election,” he said.

Babalola further pointed out that a viable opposition was needed to unseat the president, arguing that without that, they would lose again. He warned that ego appeared to be the biggest challenge facing opposition politicians, with none of them willing to give up their ambition for the other.

“Sincerely, who among the opposition members will bring down his ego to be vice president to the other? Everyone wants to be the president which is not possible.”

For, Political Strategist, Zainab Sule, the opposition’s biggest challenge is internal division.

“The PDP is battling internal crises, the Labour Party is still struggling with institutional cohesion, and smaller parties lack national spread. Individually, none of them has the capacity to confront a well-entrenched APC,” she said.

Sule stressed that without a unified front, opposition parties risk splitting votes, thereby inadvertently strengthening the ruling party’s chances.

“If they go into 2027 divided, it will be a repeat of 2023—perhaps even worse. The APC doesn’t need to win overwhelmingly; it only needs the opposition to remain fragmented,” she added.

Read also: PDP targets 2027 gains, says reconciliation to continue after convention — Wike

Lessons from 2015 coalition

Political watchers frequently reference the 2015 elections, when opposition parties merged to form the APC, ultimately defeating the incumbent PDP government. That coalition brought together diverse political interests under a single platform, creating a formidable electoral force.

Many pundits say the reality is that the opposition stands no chance of defeating the incumbent, Tinubu, in the 2027 presidential election without a strong and united coalition like 2015.

They argued that the president is even more sure-footed given the current political landscape, where the ruling party, the APC, now controls about 31 states across the federation.

“History has shown that coalition-building can be decisive. The 2015 election remains a clear example, where a united front unseated a sitting president. Building such a coalition is, in my view, the most viable pathway for the opposition to defeat President Tinubu,” Hameed Muritala, a communication and development practitioner, told BusinessDay.

Muritala stressed that for this to happen, major opposition parties like the PDP, Labour Party, and ADC would need to set aside their differences and work towards a common goal, but stated that with the current realities, such a coalition appears unlikely, which ultimately weakens the opposition’s chances.

Similarly, Ibrahim Lawal, political historian and professor, believes the opposition must learn from 2015 precedent, stressing that he APC itself is a product of alliance politics.

“It succeeded because different blocs agreed to set aside differences for a common goal. The current opposition must replicate that model if they are serious about power,” the professor noted.

Lawal warned that failure to build consensus could render opposition campaigns ineffective, regardless of the candidates they field.
APC’s strategic consolidation

In the last two years within the ruling party, the influx of new members is being framed as a sign of confidence in the Tinubu’s administration.
Party leaders argue that their governance agenda and political inclusiveness are attracting support.

A senior APC official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, described the defections as “organic growth.”

“People are joining us because they see stability, structure, and a clear pathway to development. The APC is not just a party; it is a platform with national reach and vision,” he said.

The official dismissed claims that defections are driven solely by opportunism, insisting that many politicians are aligning with what they perceive as a viable governance agenda.

Critics cite weak ideological foundations

Some analysts argue that Nigeria’s party system lacks strong ideological grounding, making defections easier and more frequent. Adebayo pointed out that the absence of clear ideological distinctions between parties contributes to political fluidity.

“In many cases, politicians are not moving because of policy differences but because of access to power and resources. That is why alliances become crucial—because ideology alone does not hold parties together,” he explained.

He added that this fluidity benefits the ruling party, which can leverage state power to attract defectors.

However, with the 2027 general election less than a year and with political elites repositioning themselves, questions remain about how ordinary Nigerians will respond at the polls.

Since 2023, economic challenges arising from inflation and unemployment, have fueled public frustration, but analysts say translating that into electoral change requires organisation.

Zainab Sule (earlier quoted) emphasised the gap between public sentiment and political execution.

“Anger does not automatically become votes. You need coordination, voter education, and a unified message. That is what the opposition currently lacks,” she said.

She noted that even where dissatisfaction is high, a divided opposition could fail to capitalise on it.

Tope Musowo, academic and public policy expert, said despite disappointment by many Nigerians over Tinubu’s performance, only a united opposition can defeat him.

“He has been able to win many governors from other parties into the fold of the All Progressives Congress and his popularity and political strategies as well as chances are growing by the day.

“He has the political sagacity and federal might on his side and the opposition might not be able to conquer him unless they come together,” he said.

APC tightens grip on power

In the last one year, the ruling party has done all it can to attract opposition politicians especially governors to its ranks, although observers say that may not necessarily translate to electoral victory. But with continued defections and incumbency advantages, other analysts predict that the APC’s grip on power could strengthen in the lead-up to 2027.

There are politicians who say that by coercing opposition politicians to join its ranks and weakening other parties, the ruling party was destroying democracy in Nigeria.

“Why is it that they instigate crisis in other parties and plant mole there. It is not a style that we saw in the last administration, but only now. They want to walk into the election without any challenge?” Dayo Ojo, a politician, said.