Nigeria’s oil output drops for seven consecutive months to 1.46m bpd

Nigeria has missed its oil production quota for the seventh consecutive month, with crude output falling to 1.46 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2026, according to the latest monthly report released by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Data from OPEC’s March 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) showed that Nigeria’s production declined from about 1.49 million bpd recorded in January, based on figures obtained from secondary sources.

Secondary communication is considered more reliable for tracking actual market output as it avoids the bias of member countries potentially over-reporting or under-reporting their figures to meet quotas.

The drop highlighted persistent constraints on Nigeria’s oil production capacity, including crude theft, pipeline vandalism, infrastructure bottlenecks, security challenges and operational disruptions across key producing regions.

Read also: Oil rally gives Nigeria’s salary-backed lenders an unexpected boost

OPEC compiles its production figures through two channels, direct communication from member countries and secondary sources such as energy intelligence platforms and industry analysts.

While secondary source data indicated a decline in Nigeria’s output to about 1.46 million bpd, figures submitted through direct communication by Nigerian authorities showed even lower production levels.

According to direct communications, Nigeria’s crude output stood at 1.31 million bpd in the period.

Read also: IEA proposes largest ever release of stockpiled oil to reduce crude price

Nigeria’s current production quota under the OPEC+ framework stands at 1.5 million bpd, leaving the country with a shortfall of roughly 40,000 bpd in February based on secondary source estimates.

Despite the production decline, Nigeria retained its position as Africa’s largest oil producer, ahead of Libya, whose output stood at roughly 1.28 million bpd during the same period.

At the broader group level, OPEC said total crude oil production by participating countries in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) averaged 42.72 million bpd in February 2026, representing an increase of 446,000 bpd month-on-month, according to secondary source data.

Nigeria’s continued underperformance relative to its quota raises concerns about the country’s ability to ramp up crude output in line with its fiscal assumptions, particularly as the government relies heavily on oil revenue to support budget spending and stabilise foreign exchange inflows.