Vision 20:2020 revisited

It has become necessary to revisit the Vision 20:2020 document to demonstrate to what extent the content of this landmark document is still very relevant today and to ensure that we do not go dissipating energy, time and resources in attempting to recreate another Vision Document when what is certain is that we are not short of developmental ideas but only come woefully short in mustering the political will to implement such laudable ideas. And it is not farfetched to conclude that this explains why we are still battling with some of the developmental challenges that have confronted Nigeria and which would seem to account for the rather modest progress we have made so far.

These landmark documents include the Vision 2010 document, the preparation of which was championed by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group with Ernest Shonekan, Dick Kramer and Pascal Dozie as some of the heavyweight individual drivers; Financial Sector Strategy 2020 to which I was engaged as a consultant on quality assurance; and quite recently under the immediate past administration, the National Conference Dialogue and the document currently under review. But what is galling and disappointing is that so much resource have been committed in the process of articulating the content of these documents that it is at once a shame as well as regrettable that we should routinely allow such worthy and worthwhile efforts come to naught because of lack of determined and focused implementation.

The Vision 2020 was prepared under the guidance of the National Planning Commission with my friend Prof Chukwuma Soludo at the helm assisted by Messrs. Accenture, a global management consulting firm. It was reported that the preparation of the vision document was, for instance, an all-inclusive consultative process which involved over 1,000 of the nation’s leading professionals and thinkers. It will also be recalled that similarly the National Conference under President Jonathan’s administration consumed a whopping sum of over N7 billion involving participants which number close to 500 representing the best and brightest which the country could assemble from all identifiable important segments of the economy. It is therefore not progressive to continuously allow such patriotic efforts and endeavours to be of no avail because of lack of focused and determined implementation.

The Vision 20:2020 blueprint articulated Nigeria’s economic growth and development strategies for the 11-year period between 2009 and 2020. It was programmed to be implemented using a series of medium-term three-year development plans. The Vision Statement as articulated as an integral aspect of this exercise is as follows: “By 2020 Nigeria will have a large (minimum GDP of $900 billion and a per capita income of not less than $ 4,000 per annum), strong, diversified, sustainable and competitive economy that effectively harnesses the talents and energies of its people and responsibly exploits its natural endowments to guarantee a high standard of living and quality of life for its citizens”. The projection was that the economy must grow at an average of 13.8 percent over the duration of the plan driven by the agriculture and industrial sectors over the medium term while a transition to a service-based economy was envisaged from 2018 (three short years from now!). With the benefit of hindsight it is now obvious that this is a rather ambitious statement to which there is not much one could realistically add from the perspectives of its overall thrusts and comprehensiveness. And therefore we may even vote that we should adopt this statement as apt, relevant and fit for purpose today.

The areas for immediate focus of policy were identified to include the following: correcting the weakness in revenue allocation (and if I may add, in our present predicament of shortfall in the amount collected as the country’s tax-to-GDP ratio is below 6 percent which compares unfavourably with countries even within the sub-region), to intensify the war against corruption, entrench merit as a fundamental national principle and core value, foster private sector-driven non-oil growth to build the foundation for economic diversification, expansion of investments in critical infrastructure, invest in human capacity development to enhance national competitiveness, address subsisting threats to national security and deepen reforms in the social sector and extend reforms to sub-national levels. It is correct to conclude that at least on two of the recommended areas of focus of policy – the fight against corruption and fighting insecurity – work is currently aggressively in hand.

Under the identified three pillars of guaranteeing the productivity and wellbeing of Nigerians, optimizing the key sources for economic growth and fostering sustainable social and economic development, some core strategies were articulated – issues such eradicating extreme hunger and poverty, enhancing access to quality and affordable health care, provision of access to potable water, affordable housing, gender equality including gender mainstreaming, improving access to micro credit and for optimizing sources of economic growth. A major recommendation for optimizing resources for economic growth is to significantly increase the production of processed and manufactured goods for export and it was recommended that efforts must not be spared in establishing a competitive business environment characterized by sustainable macroeconomic stability and the development of sufficient and efficient infrastructure to support sustained economic growth. In pursuing people-oriented goals, it recommended that we reform the educational system in conjunction with the states and local governments to enforce the completion of the mandatory nine-year Universal Basic Education programme while building capacity in technical and vocational education, supporting small scale and rural farmers, not neglecting the renewed emphasis on commercial agriculture and to encourage population control measures to moderate the existing demand pull on existing resources.

To support the attainment of industrialization ambition, it is recommended that we build industrial clusters in each of the nation’s geo-political zones. These clusters will be built around different sectors based on the economic geography of the geo-political zones. In the provisioning of infrastructure for the proposed industrial clusters, the government would leverage on the involvement of the private sector for the provision of requisite infrastructure. In this respect it is recognized that government would deliberately scale down its involvement with the provision of necessary infrastructure to focus on the provision of an overall enabling environment for private sector engagements. It is projected that Nigeria will need to generate electricity in the range of about 35,000 MW by 2020 underpinned by a privatized template leveraging on private capital with government providing appropriate legal and regulatory environment.

It is recommended that we continue to institutionalize fiscal prudence at all levels of government, particularly the sub-national levels in line with the provision of the Fiscal Responsibility Act. And that while borrowing is not a problem, we should aim in doing so to source from concessionary windows and only approach non-concessionary sources in particular instance of self-financing loans. And we should prioritize the service sector considering the extent of the sector contribution in light of the rebased GDP where these sectors will include tourism, entertainment, shipping, air transportation including reforms in the port and the financial sectors.

Since there is a consensus that the problem with Nigeria is with policy and plan implementation, it is recommended that the plan should be linked to existing mechanisms for execution, i.e. medium-term development plans and expenditure frameworks, medium-term sector strategies and the annual budget. It is correct to observe that our failure to do so through adequate linkage with the annual budgets accounted for the singular failure we have recorded as a nation in this connection. And we must institutionalize monitoring and evaluation across all levels of government to improve the capacity to translate all strategic plans and programmes into outcomes and impacts, including those of Vision 20:2020. All tiers of government will be encouraged to have multi-year development plans and to implement identified programmes and projects right through the cycle. And as we do so we would be poised for an inclusive growth as we all aspire to the attainment of the well-being of a generality of our population.

Boniface Chizea