Satellite, mobile dominance threatens Nigeria’s smaller broadband providers

…As small ISPs plead for protection

Nigeria’s smaller broadband providers face an intensifying survival battle as satellite services and mobile network operators tighten their grip on the market, industry executives say.

The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has licensed six new Internet Service Providers (ISPs), effective January 1, 2026, raising the total number of authorised ISPs to 231 from 225 in December 2025.The new licensees are Intellvision Technologies Limited, Granet Technologies Limited, Fiber Sonic Limited, Dasol Solution Services Ltd, Boost ISP Limited, and Amazon Kuiper Nigeria Limited, the local unit of Amazon’s Project Kuiper satellite broadband initiative.

Despite the regulatory expansion, smaller terrestrial ISPs warn that dominant players are squeezing them out through scale, aggressive pricing and superior coverage.

Mobile operators MTN, Airtel, Globacom and 9mobile hold over 140 million active internet subscriptions, dwarfing the fixed broadband segment where core ISPs serve around 313,713 users as of Q2 2025, according to NCC data.

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Satellite broadband, led by Elon Musk’s Starlink, has emerged as a major disruptor. Starlink, which launched in Nigeria in 2023, ranked as the second-largest ISP by subscribers in Q2 2025 with 66,523 active users, up from 59,509 in the prior quarter. It trails only Spectranet, with 99,520 customers amid recent declines. FibreOne placed third with 37,117 subscribers.

Spectranet, Starlink and FibreOne together accounted for about 65 percent of active ISP customers in Q2 2025, or roughly 203,160 out of 313,713 reported connections.

The remaining roughly 130 active ISPs shared the rest, underscoring stark market concentration.

“The big players have the capital, the infrastructure, and the pricing power. Smaller operators can’t compete on the same terms without some regulatory breathing room,” said Chidi Ibisi, executive director for business development at Broadbased Communications Limited.

Starlink’s rapid growth stems from its low-Earth-orbit (LEO) technology, providing reliable high-speed internet in areas hampered by unreliable power, vandalism and high costs for fibre or fixed wireless deployment. Many users, frustrated by outages from traditional providers, have switched despite Starlink’s higher equipment and subscription costs.

Mobile operators add to the pressure. MTN and Airtel have expanded 5G in major cities, bundling voice, data and digital services at rates smaller ISPs struggle to match. Businesses, previously dependent on fixed broadband for capacity, increasingly turn to mobile options for flexibility and lower costs.

The approval for Amazon Kuiper Nigeria Limited points to rising satellite competition. Amazon’s Project Kuiper, with a planned constellation of over 3,200 satellites, secured a seven-year permit effective February 2026, along with ISP and gateway licences. Other global entrants, including Israel’s BeetleSat and Germany’s Satelio IoT Services, have also gained permits to target underserved regions.

NCC officials defend the policy as fostering innovation and access. “Competition drives affordability and choice,” said Omotayo Mohammed, head of competition and tariff policy at the NCC.

The regulator has engaged PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) for a comprehensive study on telecom competition, the first since 2013, to evaluate market dynamics, barriers to entry and potential interventions.

Yet, smaller operators contend the market favours giants. They cite high right-of-way fees, cable vandalism, unreliable electricity and steep capital costs that limit investment outside urban hubs like Lagos, Abuja and Port Harcourt. Most new licences concentrate in Lagos, perpetuating geographic imbalances where broadband tracks income density rather than national needs.

“Running fibre is extremely expensive, and maintenance is a constant challenge,” Ibisi said, highlighting frequent damage from construction or theft.

Industry voices demand safeguards. Martins Akingba, chief operating officer of eStream Networks, said Starlink and Amazon Kuiper can threaten local ISPs if gaps in their solutions remain unaddressed.

He argued that if the NCC intends satellite services for underserved and rural areas, they are not suited to Nigeria’s rural market.

Akingba noted ISPs serve retail and enterprise segments, with many enterprise clients eyeing Starlink and Kuiper but raising security concerns over traffic routing.

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“As an ISP local player, the advent of Starlink and Kuiper make us question if the regulator is really careful of the investments made by players in this industry. Millions of naira have already been invested in infrastructures even in the underserved areas,” he said.

Biodun Omoniyi, chief executive officer of VDT Communications, urged local players not to see satellite and mobile giants purely as threats, describing LEO technology as akin to existing solutions.

Omoniyi called for operators to identify and fill market gaps for competitive edge, adding that adjustments would offer consumers alternatives rather than a winner takes all outcome. “Some people will take up the solution, some will continue to rely on their mobile devices for internet access and others will be for fixed wireless access,” Omoniyi said.

Ajibola Olude, executive secretary of the Association of Telecommunications Companies of Nigeria (ACTON), called on the NCC to establish guidelines protecting local players, including advantages in employment generation and rural restrictions.Business models require adaptation.

Many ISPs depend on basic bandwidth sales, but experts push for diversification into bundled offerings for education, healthcare or real estate; low-income tailored plans; startup partnerships; and solar power to offset grid unreliability.Government initiatives provide some optimism.

Project Bridge, a proposed 90,000-kilometre nationwide fibre network backed by federal and development funds, could reduce barriers by offering ward-level connection points, minimising the need for small ISPs to construct expensive long-haul infrastructure.

The outlook remains uncertain. While broadband demand rises with digital economy aims, smaller providers fear relegation to inactive listings on NCC registers without sustainable paths. As satellite players like Kuiper gear up for 2026 operations and mobiles push 5G, Nigeria’s broadband market concentrates further at the top. Regulatory efforts to broaden access clash with realities driving smaller ISPs toward the brink, posing questions about diversity, innovation and equitable connectivity in Africa’s largest telecom market.

Ibisi therefore advised that, “The future hinges on a level playing field. Without reforms, infrastructure support, and fair competition, many will struggle to survive.”