IMF sees Nigeria growing at 4.4 percent in 2026 as reforms support economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4 percent in 2026, from 4.2 percent in 2025, reflecting the impact of ongoing government reforms and improving macroeconomic conditions.

The projection is contained in the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, which the Fund said it would release alongside a hybrid press conference hosted at the National Bank of Belgium in Brussels. The press briefing is scheduled for Monday, January 19, 2026.

According to the IMF, growth across sub-Saharan Africa is expected to strengthen, rising from 4.4 percent in 2025 to 4.6 percent in both 2026 and 2027. This acceleration is attributed to macroeconomic stabilisation efforts and structural reforms in several key economies across the region.

At the global level, the IMF expects growth to remain broadly steady, even as momentum in high-technology sectors moderates. While these sectors are projected to slow, they are still expected to partially offset weaker activity elsewhere. The Fund noted that tariffs and elevated uncertainty will continue to weigh on global activity in the near term, but their impact on growth is expected to diminish gradually over 2026 and 2027.

Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027, representing a slight deceleration from the estimated 3.3 percent recorded in 2025. The IMF revised its 2026 forecast upward by 0.2 percentage point compared with the October 2025 WEO, while the 2027 projection remains unchanged. However, the Fund highlighted significant revisions for individual countries, with growth outlooks moving in different directions across economies.

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Despite the relative resilience seen so far, the IMF warned that risks to the global outlook remain tilted to the downside. It noted that current resilience is concentrated in a few sectors and often supported by accommodative monetary and fiscal policies, leaving the global economy vulnerable to sector-specific disruptions or shocks linked to long-standing structural risks.

Emerging market and developing economies are expected to continue driving global growth. China is projected to grow by 4.5 percent, reflecting a moderated but stable expansion consistent with ongoing structural rebalancing. India, at 6.4 percent, is expected to remain the fastest-growing major economy, supported by strong domestic demand and robust investment. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow by 4.6 percent, with Nigeria’s 4.4 percent expansion underpinned by reform momentum and growth in the services sector. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia’s growth of 4.5 percent reflects diversification efforts and normalization in the oil sector.

Growth across advanced economies is projected to remain modest but stable. The United States economy is expected to expand by 2.4 percent, supported by easing financial conditions and productivity gains linked to technology adoption. The Euro Area is projected to record gradual improvement, with Germany growing by 1.1 percent, France by 1.0 percent, and the United Kingdom by 1.3 percent, although structural constraints and weak investment continue to limit growth potential. Japan’s economy is forecast to grow by 0.7 percent, weighed down by demographic challenges and demand-side pressures.

The IMF said the press conference announcing the WEO Update will hold at 10:30 a.m. Brussels time and will be streamed live via the IMF website and Press Center, allowing journalists to participate both physically and virtually.

The briefing will be led by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s Economic Counselor and Director of the Research Department, alongside Petya Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director of the Research Department, and Deniz Igan, Division Chief in the Research Department.