…As teledensity climbs to 80.9%
Nigeria’s telecommunications sector is showing clear signs of recovery in October 2025, with active mobile subscriptions rising to 175.08 million in October, up 3.4 percent from 169.3 million at the start of the year, according to the latest data from the Nigerian Communications Commission.
The gain has pushed the country’s teledensity, a key measure of telephone access per 100 inhabitants, to 80.87 percent in October, the highest level since early 2024 and a 2.8 percentage-point improvement year-to-date.
The steady climb marks a turnaround from the sharp contraction that began in mid-2024, when aggressive enforcement of the National Identification Number (NIN)-SIM linkage policy and soaring inflation triggered the deactivation of millions of unregistered or duplicate lines.
At its lowest point in late 2024, active subscriptions had dipped below 160 million and teledensity fell to the low-70 percent range for the first time in nearly a decade.
MTN Nigeria, the market leader with 91.08 million subscribers in October, accounted for more than half of the year’s net additions. The Johannesburg-listed giant’s market share edged up to 52.02 percent, extending a dominance that has persisted for over a decade.
Airtel Nigeria followed with 59.04 million lines and a 33.72 percenr share, while Globacom held 12.47 percent and T2 clung to 1.79 percent.
The recovery has been broad-based. Every month from January to October posted positive net additions, ranging from 480,000 to two million new lines. October alone added 1.54 million subscribers, the strongest single-month gain of the year.
Behind the numbers lies a rapid technology shift that is reshaping how Nigerians connect. Fourth-generation (4G) networks now serve 51.77 percent of subscribers, having overtaken 2G (38.40 percent) for the first time. Fifth-generation connections (5G), while still niche, grew from roughly one percent at the start of 2025 to 3.49 percent by October, or about 6.1 million users, concentrated in Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt and a handful of state capitals.
Broadband penetration, an official policy priority, also benefited from the rebound. Active broadband subscriptions rose to 108.2 million, lifting penetration to 49.89 percent from 45.3 percent in January.
Nigeria is now within striking distance of the 50 percent milestone repeatedly promised by successive administrations, though it remains far from the 70 percent target originally set for 2025 under the National Broadband Plan.
This milestone can be attributed to a combination of factors: falling handset prices, aggressive data-bundle promotions, expanded rural coverage funded by the Universal Service Provision Fund, and a modest easing of inflationary pressure in the second half of the year.
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to hold the benchmark interest rate steady since July has also helped stabilize the naira, indirectly supporting consumer spending on airtime and data.
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Still, challenges persist. Fixed-line services remain almost nonexistent, with wired broadband subscriptions stuck below 74,000 nationwide. Rural areas continue to rely heavily on legacy 2G networks, and average revenue per user (ARPU) has fallen in dollar terms because of currency depreciation and intense price competition.
Market watchers expect growth to continue into 2026, albeit at a slower pace. The NCC is preparing fresh spectrum auctions for early next year, and both MTN and Airtel have signaled multibillion-dollar capex programs aimed at densifying 4G and accelerating 5G rollout.
For now, Nigeria’s 175 million active mobile lines, serving a population officially estimated at 216 million, represent a hard-won recovery.
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