Nigerian Breweries set for 39% revenue growth in 2025, CardinalStone says

CardinalStone Research forecasts Nigerian Breweries Plc will post N1.51 trillion in revenue this year, up 39% from 2024, as price hikes, seasonal demand, and product innovation help the brewer extend its recovery from two years of losses.

The Heineken-controlled company had already swung back into profit in the first half of 2025, reporting earnings per share of N2.85 compared with a loss of N8.28 a year earlier.

Revenue jumped 54% to N733.1 billion, with premium brands such as Heineken, Tiger, and Desperados recording double-digit volume growth despite softness in mainstream labels.

Margins are expected to strengthen further. CardinalStone projects gross margin at 42.5% and EBIT margin at 20.2% for 2025, reflecting cost-optimisation initiatives, lower inflation, and a shift to local sourcing.

The brewer’s cost-to-sales ratio dropped to 57.9% in the first half, from 66.7% a year earlier, as solar-powered breweries and efficient distribution reduced input costs.

Related News

A stronger balance sheet is also driving confidence. Nigerian Breweries used proceeds from a rights issue — which lifted Heineken’s stake to 72.9% — to pay down foreign-currency debt, shifting from a $217.9 million net liability in 2023 to a $42.1 million net asset in 2024.

That generated a N7.3 billion FX gain in H1 and is expected to provide more support through year-end at an assumed N1,550/$ exchange rate.

Leverage has fallen to multi-year lows, with debt-to-equity at 0.33x, while return on equity is forecast to rebound to 28.4% after years of negative returns.

Despite the turnaround, the stock trades at a discount. At N68.30, Nigerian Breweries is valued at 9.8 times forward earnings, below the 13.2x average for Middle East and Africa peers. Its 5.3x EV/EBITDA multiple also lags the regional mean of 7.3x.

CardinalStone raised its 12-month target price to N80.62, implying an 18% upside, and reaffirmed its BUY rating.

The outlook hinges on sustaining growth in both premium and mainstream segments. While high-end brands are driving profitability, CardinalStone noted that defending share in the mass market with Goldberg, Maltina, and other staples will be critical to preserving Nigerian Breweries’ dominance.

Wasiu Alli

Wasiu Alli is a business, economics cum data journalist with strong expertise covering macro trends, capital markets, government policies, corporate earnings and comparative economics analysis. Alli turns raw data into trends that not only tells compelling stories but nudges investors to make valued and informed decisions. He’s an alumnus of Lagos State University and trained at Lagos Business School. He formerly heads the Companies and Markets desk at BusinessDay where he writes and supervises the production of well researched articles on earnings updates, corporate sectoral comparisons, market intelligence as well as interviews with C-suite executives.