Nigeria poised to benefit from shifting global landscape

Disclaimer: Ramblings and musings of a staunch Nigerian optimist. Reader discretion advised.

US policy since the 47th president’s inauguration has notably shifted. From its traditional focus on partnership with Europe, attention has moved inward to counter perceived economic threats (particularly China) tagged as primary long-term competitors. With the world becoming more multipolar—various regional powers asserting themselves on the global stage—US foreign policy is also being tailored toward countering emerging regional power bases. Generally, rising nationalist sentiment in the US supports a more isolationist foreign policy with less emphasis on traditional alliances.

One outcome has been decreased US engagement in Africa—USAID (a major vehicle for US intervention on the continent) recently saw headcount drop abruptly from 10,000 to around 290 following Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) intervention and some of its functions absorbed into the US State Department—creating a vacuum that other emerging global powers, such as China and the UAE, have sought to fill. Africa could be on the precipice of newly forged economic partnerships and security arrangements that, if managed correctly and with precision, could see new opportunities for the continent to course correct and plot a new path toward economic stability and, eventually, prosperity.

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In order to harness this opportunity, there would need to be strong collaboration and coordination across Africa. Greater self-reliance and cooperation as a region are the foundation on which this new path can be plotted. We have the demographics; Africa’s median age is 20, coupled with its relatively strong population growth (currently between 2% and 3% per annum) and urbanisation (3.5% per annum) metrics, demonstrating the growing market opportunity for Africa.

The US’s “America First” agenda has distanced itself from long-standing European alliances under the current administration. Markedly, openly calling out NATO member states on defence spending (or lack thereof), imposing trade tariffs on European steel and aluminium, and pulling out of the Paris Climate Agreement (among others). Europe’s response has been less than subtle, seeking stronger ties in the Indo-Pacific region in a 2021 document (Indo-Pacific Strategy) emphasising Europe’s commitment to multilateralism—engaging proactively with the region as a cooperative partner—and trade openness. It is important to note that the European shift in rhetoric may be just as much to do with US retrenchment as with slowing economic growth on the continent.

Enter emerging geopolitical and economic power blocs. For a while, the idea of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) seemed to have lost momentum for lack of substantive, achievable goals and discord amongst member states (India and China specifically). However, given recent developments in Washington, DC, a resurgence has occurred in efforts to create a counterweight against US global influence. As these states enjoy faster economic growth than traditional/western powers, they now see a larger opportunity for increased trade and investment among themselves. The recent inclusions of Saudi Arabia and Nigeria (as of January 2025) denote the ambitious and open strategy of a would-be significant power base on the world stage if managed correctly. Collectively, BRICS countries account for c. 25 percent of global GDP.

 “In order to harness this opportunity, there would need to be strong collaboration and coordination across Africa.”

Africa’s growing presence and supportive fundamentals present a real opportunity if harnessed correctly. Divisiveness and posturing will do little to position the continent strongly on the global stage. Homogeny across countries in terms of economic policy (among others) is vital to achieving such lofty ambitions. A unified Africa is required in the face of the dynamic geopolitical landscape in which we find ourselves.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCTA), though fraught with its own implementation challenges, is a strong first step to removing intra-African trade barriers and fostering integration across the continent. Just as was the intention behind the establishment of the EU, this should serve the dual purpose of boosting economic growth and elevating Africa’s global standing. In creating a single continental market with over 1.4bn people—expected to reach nearly 2.5bn by 2050 according to the UN—Africa becomes one of the largest consumer markets in the world. Eliminating trade barriers empowers African countries to expand trade and reduce dependency on external markets. Doesn’t hurt the foreign direct investment conversation either.

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A stronger Africa means a larger platform for global trade and policy discussions. Partnerships with our other BRICS member nations become more balanced and equitable. Over the past decade, China—in efforts to satiate a rapidly growing economy—has become Africa’s largest trading partner and a major investor in infrastructure projects, all for access to African resources and markets. Russia ostensibly views Africa as key to counterbalancing Western global influence, increasing state visits and summits to strengthen ties, as well as engaging in security operations including military training and arms sales. Targeted African countries have been receptive to these advances while leveraging both relationships toward their own interests.

In a manner of speaking, we really are the cherry on top. The value investment that could yield incredible returns for whomever is able to build influence in the ‘final frontier market.’. What we need now is a spokesperson, a leader to represent a united continent—I would suggest Nigeria play that role. There are several reasons. Nigeria is the largest African economy (staunch Nigeria optimist), the largest and most enterprising population (entrepreneurship and perseverance are deeply engrained in our DNA), a major future beneficiary of the ‘demographic dividend,’ and, finally, already a major influencer on the continent as both a cultural and political spearhead.

Continues on businessday.ng