For the first time in the history of Nigerian electioneering process, parties and their flag bearers across the major elective positions in the 2023 general election may be starved of cash by the new policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through the redesigning of some Naira notes.
The unexpected note redesigning by the CBN a few months to the elections is already having the a serious impact by the ‘initiators’, though the masses, who complain of scarcity of the notes amid January 31, 2023 deadline are hugely impacted.
Considering the look of things and recent outburst by a presidential candidate, the politicians are most impacted by the naira redesign.
However, there is fear that the scarcity of cash to buy votes may likely push politicians to become more desperate this time around, even to deploy thugs to disrupt elections, especially in the strongholds of their opposition; an ugly trend that has been repeating since the 2003 general election.
Those who have followed the campaign of some of the parties, have expressed fears that the level of desperation being exhibited by some politicians which is manifested in the hateful and intemperate words, are easy evident of the extent they are prepared to go to win the election.
Linus Pam Yakubu, a retired soldier, noted that if money will not work this time, politicians will use violence and all forms of intimidation.
“I am sorry that some of my colleagues have been accused of aiding electoral violence in the past elections; Ekiti State, for instance. But that will not stop unless the President truly wants free and fair election, and ensures that happens with matching order. Imagine a presidential order to shoot aside any suspected hoodlum at polling units. It is simple; those without PVCs and not voting within that area will be regarded as hoodlums and shot at. It is simple, but we need political will to enforce that,” Yakubu said.
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Mark Onunze, an Aba-based lawyer and former chairman of Abia State Local Government Employees Association, noted that banks are already feeling the pressure from corrupt politicians, who are willing to exchange cash with huge commissions at the banks.
As enticing as that offer may be, the banks are cautious as the CBN, according to Onunze, has watchdogs to report such incidents.
“The Naira redesign is carefully planned and the CBN is committed to implementing it. So, many bank executives, middle level staff and even contract staff are likely going to be sacked for conniving with the politicians to move cash out of the bank during this period,” he said.
He thinks that in lieu of cash to buy votes, the politicians will likely raise an army of hoodlums to disrupt peaceful voting at the booths on Election Day.
“My in-law was among the voters wounded at Okota in the 2019 election by hoodlums sent by the rival party. That was when cash was still a weapon. Now, I think desperate politicians may use security apparatus to stop people on February 25,” Onunze said.
Speaking from experience, Chijioke Umelahi, a former Abia lawmaker, who now runs a legal chamber in Abuja, disclosed that politicians are crafty and will always find a way to entice voters with money or stop them from voting.
Considering that money may not buy as many votes as it used to buy for them before now, Umelahi said that politicians are likely going to resort to thuggery, ballot snatching and other forms of intimidation to selfishly ensure victory at all cost.
In his view and based on past trends, Samuel Onikoyi, a Brussels, Belgium-based Nigerian academia, said that the politicians are predictable and Nigerians know that violence is their last weapon to ensure victory, hence suggested that security apparatus should work with the people to ensure that they exercise their civic duties and that their votes also count.
“All Nigerians need to do now is to hold security agencies at the jugular to ensure that their safety is guaranteed on Election Day. Why I said security is because Nigerians have been calling on the government for protection and little has happened in terms of safety.
“So, for the 2023 elections, Nigerians need to protect themselves at the polling units, they need to fight for safety of their votes, they need to chase away hoodlums at the booths, they need to chase away partial security agents. But they need to be united to do this because another mistake of a bad leader will sink the country.
“Check how much Naira has devalued, level of unemployment, level of crime, level of inflation and corruption, which is resulting in exodus of our people, then, you have no option than to stand for your right and votes.
“Some will die in that process, but their sacrifice will get the country back on the right footing,” Onikoyi said.
The angry Nigerian diaspora noted that politicians will always buy votes, and are likely going to raise the stakes for the electorates to sell their votes, but that those who sell their votes should count their losses rather than gains from the votes they have been selling since 1999.
“You cannot eat your cake and have it back. The politicians know this better and that is why they always buy votes to shut the mouth of people. If you sell your vote, you sell your right and power to challenge corrupt leaders.
Even if they bring hard currency, stand your ground because it will finish before a week,” he said.
However, Seun Amodu, a senior security officer, noted that if Nigerian electorate want a real change, they have to brave the odds on February 25 to withstand hoodlums, fight back, vote despite challenges and secure their votes.
“Don’t think politicians and those who have spent billions of naira in their campaigns will watch their investments go down the drain. You have to lookout for their foot soldiers, chase them away, withstand security agents working for parties and raise sustained dust. It is going to be a fight to finish and the voters have to finish the fight because all Nigerians have suffered and will suffer more if we don’t get it right now.
“There is no sentiment this time, we have suffered as a people and as a nation, let us get it right this year for our collective interest and not the politicians,” Amodu warned.
“Nigerian politicians are always hundred miles ahead of any innovation designed to stop their criminal enterprise. They will also go cashless in their transactions or devise another means for vote-buying,” Tope Musowo, public policy analyst, said.
He further said: “Concerning the use of thugs to scare away perceived supporters of their opposition at the polling units, this has been in operation for long, and will continue as long as we don’t punish electoral offenders.”
Musowo added that the CBN cashless policy can only limit vote-buying but cannot end it.
The public policy analyst also said that politicians would also go cashless in their transactions or devise another means for vote-buying, noting that the refusal of the government to check electoral offenders arrested during Osun and Ekiti governorship elections, was also a major issue.
Similarly, there is the fear in some quarters that the CBN cashless policy may truncate vote buying; there are concerns that desperate politicians may resort to use of thugs to intimidate voters.
Adeoye Adelaja, public affairs analyst, said politicians are already thinking of strategies to deploy to win elections ahead of INEC, stressing that none of the top politicians will want chaos, because it will be too risky to use thugs against voters.
According to him, “Cashless policy will not deter voters from voting for whoever they want in the 2023 presidential election. Nigerians have gone through harrowing experiences due to bad leadership and governance.
“From words on the street, it is a fight for the soul of Nigeria for many of them; so, I believe money will not play a major role. None of the top politicians will want chaos, because it will be too risky to use thugs against voters.”
Ogunwale Adam, political analyst, said that signs that the 2023 general election would not be different from the rest are clear for all to see.
The political analyst added that politicians may devise new strategies to beat the cashless policy to brighten their chances.
“I don’t think anything may change in these elections, you can see the signs are already there, even in Lagos here.
“There are cries by smaller parties that they are being attacked and not allowed to campaign freely across the country,” Adam said.
In the last few weeks, reports are rife of some governors using armed thugs and state security outfits to disrupt campaigns and other political activities.
Ambrose Aisabor, a retired assistant inspector general of police, who lauded the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for putting in place the policy, said the recent actions by the apex bank would reduce excess cash meant for buying votes during the electioneering.
“The move towards the attainment of the cashless economy in Nigeria by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is the greatest thing that has happened to our country.
“Many rich politicians have already gathered enough cash to influence the outcome of the elections. They have been cut down by the recent actions of the CBN. The politicians are now stranded. They have tried to use the National Assembly to intimidate the Central Bank of Nigeria but it is not working as the Presidency is on the same page with the CBN.
“The action of the CBN will not discourage people to come out en mass to vote. It will put all the political parties on a level-playing ground without any inducement. The measure will go a long way to prevent vote buying and reflect the true outcome of the elections. In other words, the votes will count,” Aisabor said.
He expressed hope that politicians would not resort to thugs “because it is not going to work unless the security agencies are prepared to compromise as almost every Nigerian today is hungry and wants money.
“That is why I am in strong support of the position of the Police Service Commission that police personnel due for retirement before the elections must proceed immediately as no police man is indispensable.
“The security agencies if they are patriotic will play their role creditably, but there is too much hunger in the land. My belief is that only few security agents can tread where even angels fear,” he added.
The former senior police officer, therefore, urged the police authority to withdraw all their personnel in the hands of private individuals so as to boost security strength during the election, pointing out that Nigerians will not accept any excuse of inadequate manpower.
For Tony Abolo, a Benin-based communication expert, the cashless initiative would go a long way to addressing the challenges of vote buying that has in previous years undermined voters’ choices and, ultimately, threatened electoral outcomes.
Abolo, who opined that the cashless policy may augur well for the electorate who are determined to ensure their votes count, said it may not be the same old story for desperate politicians who normally participate in voter inducement.
“It has been observed that vote buying is one of the threats towards popular choices. So, if the government thinks this policy is one way to do it, then so be it.
“We have seen that vote buying is a major issue and because this particular election is important; people feel it should be intentional and there should be a definite statement by the electorate to determine the future of the country and those who go into leadership.
“If indeed it works, which we believe it is good for the system, then it will create a new political culture. But another issue is, if the politicians decide to use thuggery to garner votes, how do you prevent it? We just hope that there will be instructions left for the military and other security agencies to deal with it because they have enough force to do it,” Abolo said.
Bright Oniovokukor, convener, Rally for Peaceful Election, and other participants had during a virtual meeting, titled ‘Emerging Threats To Peace in 2023 General Elections, South-South, Nigeria,’ advised key actors to be vigilant about factors such as vote buying and violence that may mar the polls.
According to him, “History repeating itself where some persons feel they can use violence to get into the office and also use the same violence to oppress as well as intimidate others. This violence come with this entitlement mentality where some set of persons feel they can get away with what they do.
“Vote buying is already taking place; the pre-election vote buying is something that actors should not keep a blind eye to. It poses danger to those who do not want to cooperate with perpetrators.”
He further said: “Since politicians may not be able to steal ballot boxes or carry out other manipulations during the election, they are going about to buy off the voters’ cards, intimidate and carryout activities that would put fear in the minds of citizens in areas that are not their strong holds. They want to use these actions to reduce the votes of their opponents.”
Recently, the Inspector-General of Police (IGP), Usman Alkali Baba, alleged that some governors were using armed thugs and state security outfits to disrupt campaigns and other political activities.
Baba accused such governors of showing traits of political intolerance which create political tension in the country.
He warned political leaders to do away with the usage of thugs when carrying out their activities, and urged the youth not to make themselves willing tools for politicians.
In the last four years, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has recorded 50 attacks on its facilities across 15 States.
According to reliable data, Imo State had the highest number of attacks on INEC facilities with 11 incidents followed by Osun, Akwa-Ibom, Enugu, Ebonyi, Cross River, Abia, Anambra, Taraba, Borno, Ogun, Lagos, Bayelsa, Ondo and Kaduna States.
Abdullahi Abdu Zuru, chairman of the Board of Electoral Institute (BEI), representing the Chairman of INEC at an election-security training programme, recently had also warned that the growing spate of insecurity in many parts of the country may lead to a cancellation or postponement of the 2023 general election.
Mahmood Yakubu, INEC’s chairman, however, distanced the Commission from Zuru’s claim, reiterating that the INEC was determined to go ahead with the elections as scheduled. But, speculations are rife that the Commission may have no option in the face of heightened insecurity.
In the last few weeks, some political parties have decried increasing violent attacks on their campaign train.
Last weekend, the Lagos State chapter of the Labour Party, decried incessant attacks on its members in the state and across the country.
The party in a statement said that one such incident took place recently, when one of its members sustained life-threatening injuries, after such an attack, in which he was beaten up during an attempt to paste posters of the party’s candidates.
The PDP in Lagos also, some days ago, raised alarm over attacks on its campaign train in the state in recent weeks.
The PDP stated that sponsored thugs had disrupted its campaign in some parts of Lagos State last week.
Electoral Offences Desks
On June 8, 2022 the Inspector-General of Police, Usman Alkali Baba, approved the establishment of electoral offences desks at the Force Criminal Investigations Department, FCID, Force Headquarters, Abuja, with the Commissioner of Police, FCID, as the desk officer.
The IGP also approved establishment of the desks at State Commands across the country, with Assistant Commissioners of Police in charge of the Criminal Investigation Departments as State desk officers.
A statement by the Force Public Relations Officer, CSP Muyiwa Adejobi, had said that mandate of the Electoral Offences Desk Officers includes the collation and investigation of all electoral offences/complaints from members of the public or any quarters, with a view to determining culpability in line with the amended Electoral Act 2022, and proffering charges before courts of competent jurisdiction for necessary legal action.
