Nigeria’s labour statistics, a report that shows the country’s unemployment numbers will be published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) by the end of July, according to the Zainab Ahmed, Finance Minister.
Ahmed made the announcement during a recent virtual consultative public forum in which she presented the draft 2021-2023 Medium Term Expenditure Framework/Fiscal Strategy Paper, (MTEF/FSP).
“I’m pleased to announce that by the end of July 2020 we’ll have the newest NBS unemployment report,” she said, adding that the survey is completed and “the final report is being put together.”
Going by the new date by the Finance Minister, the labour force report would be released earlier than the scheduled August 31 in the calendar of the statistics office.
If published by the end of July (Q3 2020), it will make it exactly two years since the last unemployment report was released in the third quarter of 2018.
The most recent labour force statistics by NBS shows Nigeria’s jobless rate was at a record-high of 23.1 percent in Q3 2018. The country’s unemployment rate embarked on an upward spiral in 2015 after a decline to 6.4 percent a year earlier.
On why the labour report has not been published since July 2018, a source from the data agency told BusinessDay in March 2020 that it was due to the lack of fund.
“Not every report we publish requires funds or a lot of funds. Some reports can be easily published unlike the unemployment data that involve surveys and fieldwork,” the source said had said on the condition of anonymity.
Meanwhile, labour force statistics is considered by economists as an important economic and social indicator used in the analysis, evaluation, and monitoring of: the economy; the labour market; and a wide range of government policies.
Ayorinde Akinloye, an analyst at Lagos-based CSL Stockbrokers said unemployment and Job creation is one of the most important lagging indicators for an economy as it explains how well hiring and job creation is following an economic downturn or upturn.
“Also, it gives a gauge of how strong the average consumer is. Not having this data limits such insight on economic activities as well as consumer strength,” Akinloye said.
Since 2017 when oil-dependent Nigeria emerged from its economic recession, not only has the country’s economic growth been sluggish but only a few sectors triggered the expansion, further undermining the country’s capacity to create enough jobs to meet the growing number of labour market entrants.
Out of about 4.8 million Nigerians who entered the country’s labour market between 2015 and 2018, about 635,000 jobs were created within the period, indicating only a job was available for every 8 people who joined Nigeria’s economically active workforce.
While there is no relief in sight for Nigerian’s unemployed population due to the impact of COVID-19 which is expected to add more than 10 million people to the already heightened level, the research arm of Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) is optimistic that private sector expansion and industrial remains the solution.
“Unemployment may rise to 33.6 percent or about 39.4 million people by the end of 2020 if we fail to take prompt pre-emptive measures; millions more will fall into extreme poverty before the pandemic ends,” Vice President Yemi Osinbajo said.
Meanwhile, the high volume of Nigeria’s unaccounted unemployment numbers was evident in the recent traffic application for N-Power, a Federal Government empowerment programme for unemployed youth.
More than one million applications were received in less than 48 hours after the online portal for the recruitment of the third batch of N-Power was opened.
While the job creation scheme which comes with a monthly stipend of N30,000 ($98) will only absorb 400,000 unemployed graduates, the more than 600,000 applicants recorded in less than two days shows the high volume of the country’s unaccounted unemployment numbers.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, NESG said, for Nigeria to keep its unemployment rate stable at record-high 23 percent, the country would need to create at least 3.3 million jobs every year to avoid exacerbating joblessness and absorb new labour market entrants even though it struggled to create a fifth of the jobs in the last four years.
