Many Nigerians are currently in high spirits over the seemingly decreasing number of infected persons as released by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), but experts warn that it is not yet celebration time.
For a people who had been literally under lock and key in the last five months during which life was colourless, and living almost a risk, government’s quantitative easing of the lockdown, beginning with the relaxation of movement restrictions and then reopening of markets, work places, airports, schools and now worship centres, calls for excitement and celebration.
The excitement could be understood from the point of view that ON July 1, Nigeria recorded the highest daily cases of 790, but on August 4, the lowest daily cases of 288 were recorded.
But concerns remain. Many critical minds and close watchers of developments around this novel virus are deeply worried that, all too sudden, it seems government at both federal and state levels have started shifting grounds in the fight against the virus and, pronto, numbers have started declining.
The most surprising state is Lagos which is said to be the epicenter of the disease infection with over 40 percent of the national infection rate. Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, the virus’s Incident Commander, went about it as though the state was at war. But the state is now reported to have closed three of its numerous isolation centres.
The same with Kano State which, at the onset of the disease, posted daily frightening numbers that forced Governor Abdullahi Ganduje to raise the alarm, requesting the Federal Government to make N15 billion available to the state to enable it fight the rampaging virus. Today, most of the isolation centres in the state are empty and in disuse.
Boss Mustapha, the chairman of the Presidential Task Force (PTF) on Covid-19 had predicted that, unless Nigerians behaved themselves in terms of complying with health and safety protocols, dead bodies would litter the streets of the country in the weeks and months to come.
The same PTF told Nigerians that the month of August, which is where we are at the moment, would mark the peak of the infection, expecting that the numbers would spike as testing would be ramped up with a target of testing about one million people a day.
“I am alarmed; I don’t understand what has happened over-night. Everything has changed and still changing. We are yet to see corpses on the street and this is August. What is happening? Government is simply leaving us to our fate, at the middle of nowhere. Only yesterday the numbers were rising in multiples. Today, we are seeing a significant decline,” Henry Omale, a public health worker fumed.
Continuing, Omale wondered, “is it possible they are tired? Are they cash-strapped? I see dangers ahead, especially as they have ordered the reopening of worship centres and are now considering reopening international flight operations. Who knows, they can just take a flight and since the worship centres are now open, expect us to take our cases to God as we have always done.”
Tunde Bakare, pastor and serving overseer of the Citadel Global Community Church (CGCC), had warned against the reopening of churches, urging Christians not to let any religious leader or government official lead them like a sheep to the slaughterhouse.
“I have to appeal to you once again, please keep safe and do your best to stay alive. Do not let anyone, whether religious leader or governmental leader, to drive you like a sheep to the slaughter,” he warned.
According to him, “If they (the government and the disease control authorities) said that the month of August is going to be the peak of the infection, why should they ask people to rush in (re-open the churches) again?
“Please keep safe and do your best to keep alive by adhering to all the necessary rules. We know that by the grace of God this pandemic, like the others before it, has an expiry date. It shall not see our end. We shall see its end in the mighty name of Jesus.”
But government and health practitioners have explanations to give and they do that as if they are in a helpless situation. When BDSUNDAY contacted NCDC on Friday, it explained that Nigeria was recording decreasing Covid-19 numbers because there is a decline in sample collection across states.
Emeka Oguanuo, Risk Communication Officer at NCDC, said the downward trend does not mean that Nigeria is finally flattening the curve, because the country has not seen its peak yet, but that states are not testing enough despite the significant increases in laboratories with capacity to test for Covid-19.
He said there were currently more than 60 laboratories in addition to more sample collection centres, following government’s directive to public and private hospitals to collect samples.
He also said the country has procured enough stockpile of reagents, enough to last a very long time, but samples are not coming in, because Nigerians are unwilling to show up for testing.
Ejike Orji, chairman, Medical Sub-committee, FCT ministerial Expert Advisory Committee on Covid-19, noted that it was too early to assume that the country was recording a decline in cases because the trend has been inconsistent over the last few months.
Orji said the daily numbers reeled out by the NCDC are just one aspect of the parameter to determine if the Covid-19 cases are receding. According to him, other important parts of the equation is the number of samples collected and tests conducted in relation to the population across states and until Nigeria achieves maximum testing, Covid-19 cases cannot be said to be decreasing.
“The reduced number of cases reeled out by the NCDC daily does not mean that Covid-19 cases are receding, if there was adequate testing done, then we can say the virus is receding. All these parameters must be met first,” he said.
Orji insisted that states were not testing adequately. According to him, only the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), with a population of about 5 million has the high penetration of testing, even more than Lagos that currently leads with the highest number of cases. He said Abuja has the highest per capita test.
“The penetration of testing in relation to the population is very key,” he said.
“This disease is not receding; it’s even accelerating. Nigerians are just in denial and have refused to show up for testing. Stigmatisation is also a problem,” he added.
The chairman further disclosed that Nigerians dying from the diseases are more than the national numbers. He said several patients die before reaching the hospital and their data was not captured in addition to several others in rural areas.
He warned that the seeming decrease in cases is not ‘uhuru’ yet, as the country is still far from the peak. Orji said Nigerians must continue to adhere religiously to the preventive measures, adding that government will need to increase sensitization, especially in rural communities.
The downward trending of the Covid-19 numbers is contrary to predictions in many quarters months back that the situation could grow so bad in Nigeria to the point of people falling dead on the streets.
In April, Melinda Gates, co-chair of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and wife of US billionaire, Bill Gates, was quoted as saying that the coronavirus pandemic “will make Africa have dead bodies lying on the streets.”
A Facebook post in Kenya on April 12, 2020, said: “Melinda Gates, renowned billionaire Gates’ wife, says the lack of testing kits in Africa is the reason the continent’s Coronavirus cases are low, and this will make Africa have dead bodies lying on the streets.
“Covid-19 will be horrible in the developing world, she said. My heart is in Africa. I am worried. The only reason the reported cases of the coronavirus disease in Africa is low now is most likely because there have not been wide testing of people. The disease is going to bite hard on the continent. I see dead bodies on the streets of Africa,” Melinda said.
