• Thursday, March 28, 2024
businessday logo

BusinessDay

Opposition leader declared winner in Congo election

Opposition leader declared winner in Congo election

The Democratic Republic of Congo named opposition leader Felix Tshisekedi as the winner of last month’s contentious presidential election, in an announcement that was rejected by other opposition candidates and could prolong the country’s dangerous political crisis.

The head of the country’s election commission said in the early hours of Thursday that Mr Tshisekedi had won the delayed election with about 39 per cent of the vote, defeating another opposition candidate Martin Fayulu, who finished second, and President Joseph Kabila’s chosen successor Emmanuel Shadary, who finished third.

Mr Tshisekedi’s surprise victory followed statements this week from his party that it had met with Mr Kabila’s representatives to discuss a transition, stoking reports that the two sides had reached a deal to block Mr Fayulu from power.

The country’s powerful organisation of Catholic bishops, which ran the biggest election monitoring mission, told diplomats last week that Mr Fayulu was in an unassailable lead. It publicly warned the election commission, widely believed to be aligned with the government, not to distort the results.

Jean-Yves Le Drian, French foreign minister, on Thursday cast doubts on Mr Tshisekedi’s victory. “We must have clarity on these results, which are the opposite to what we expected,” Mr Le Drian told CNews, according to Reuters. “The Catholic Church of Congo did its tally and announced completely different results.”
While Mr Tshisekedi thanked Mr Kabila for his backing, Mr Fayulu refused to accept the result and called on election observers to reveal “who really was our people’s choice”.

The mistrust generated by the delayed announcement of results and the rumoured backroom dealing has turned what might have looked like a momentous victory for Congo’s biggest opposition party into a potentially explosive scenario, said Jason Stearns, director of the Congo Research Group at the Center on International Cooperation, a New York think-tank.

“This is a relatively volatile, unpredictable situation,” Mr Stearns said. “Tshisekedi’s victory goes against what the Catholic Church is reported to have said in private, and is likely to be contested by many in the opposition. The looming question for many remains: was there a deal struck between Tshisekedi and Kabila to enable this victory?”

Congo has never had a transfer of power via the ballot box and many of its 80m people appeared desperate for change as they queued to place their ballots on December 30.

In office since 2001, Mr Kabila was due to step down in 2016 but delayed elections and held on to power, sparking violent protests in which dozens died. Under domestic and international pressure Mr Kabila agreed to step down in August, naming the former interior minister, Mr Shadary, to run in his place.

Mr Shadary benefited from the full support of the state on the campaign trail but Mr Tshisekedi, Mr Fayulu and other opposition candidates promised a once-in-a-generation opportunity for change that resonated with voters across the country, who voted for opposition candidates in huge numbers.

Given the widespread support for a transfer of power, the possibility of a deal between Mr Kabila and Mr Tshisekedi had increased the likelihood of violent protests in the weeks ahead, said Mvemba Dizolele, a Congolese lecturer at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.

“If [Mr Tshisekedi] really won fair and square in a situation like this where the people really want a break with the past, why is he so eager to get into a deal with the old guard,” Mr Dizolele said. “It kills the credibility of the entire process and from the outset dilutes [Mr Tshisekedi’s] legitimacy.”

Mr Tshisekedi, 55, is president of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress, Congo’s biggest opposition party. Educated in Belgium, he inherited his position in the party and his popularity from his father Étienne Tshisekedi, Congo’s most famous opposition leader, who died in 2017.

But it was Mr Fayulu, little known outside of the capital of Kinshasa six months ago, who seemed to capture the public’s imagination during the campaign, making the announcement of Mr Tshisekedi’s victory all the more surprising, Mr Dizolele said.

Backed by powerful opposition leaders Jean-Pierre Bemba and Moise Katumbi — both disqualified from the race — Mr Fayulu criss-crossed the country in an energetic campaign, while Mr Bemba and Mr Katumbi corralled both domestic and foreign support.

The reaction to the result of the Catholic bishops’ conference, known as Cenco, and the other observation missions run by the African Union and the Southern African Development Community, will be critical to how the situation evolves from here, said Stephanie Wolters, a Congo expert at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria.

“Given Congolese distrust of the electoral commission and the government, it will be really essential that other observers can endorse [Mr Tshisekedi],” she said. “If the Cenco publishes good solid proof that it wasn’t in fact Tshisekedi who won then we will find ourselves in a difficult situation.”

The provisional results, announced on state television by electoral commission president Corneille Nangaa, would have to be confirmed by the country’s constitutional court before Mr Tshisekedi can take power. Turnout in the vote was about 48 per cent, Mr Nangaa said.