• Sunday, May 19, 2024
businessday logo

BusinessDay

Joe Biden bets on black voters to rebuild ‘Obama coalition’

As Joe Biden took a victory lap on Sunday following his big win in South Carolina, the politician being hailed as the man of the moment in neighbouring North Carolina was Jim Clyburn.
“He has been deemed by many as a kingmaker,” Mitch Colvin, the Democratic mayor of Fayetteville, North Carolina, told congregants at Simon Temple African Methodist Episcopal Zion Church. “And we saw him crown our king of South Carolina only yesterday, vice-president Biden.”
Exit polls showed the eleventh-hour endorsement from Mr Clyburn, a longtime South Carolina congressman and the highest ranking African-American on Capitol Hill, was decisive in solidifying the black vote in South Carolina for Mr Biden and delivering a 29-point victory in the state for the former US vice-president.
But with voters in 14 more states heading to the polls on Super Tuesday, the urgent question for the Biden campaign is whether South Carolina was a singular demonstration of Mr Clyburn’s powers in his home state, or a signal of a broad-based swell of support for Mr Biden.
The Biden campaign is looking to replicate its success in South Carolina, where 60 per cent of Democratic primary voters were African-American, in other states with large black electorates on Tuesday, including North Carolina, Alabama and Virginia.
But in order for Mr Biden to seriously challenge frontrunner Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination, the former vice-president must also be able to demonstrate he can rebuild the “Obama coalition” of white and non-white voters, energising the left-leaning Democratic base as well as more moderate voters in America’s suburbs.
“As good as Biden did in South Carolina and as good as he might do in other southern states on Tuesday, the south is not enough,” said Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
A Morning Consult poll published on Monday signalled that South Carolina had boosted Mr Biden’s national standing among likely voters. The former vice-president rose 7 percentage points in the national poll, conducted after Saturday’s primary, while all of his rivals lost ground.
Endorsements on Monday from Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, two moderates who dropped out of the race after South Carolina, may also help Mr Biden make inroads with predominately white voters who were initially drawn to the two Midwesterners. Beto O’Rourke, the former Texas congressman, also announced he was backing Mr Biden on Monday — an endorsement that could boost the former vice-president’s standing with Latino and African-American voters.
But Mr Biden will nevertheless need to solidify his support from non-white voters in a still-crowded field that includes Mr Sanders, Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren and the billionaire former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, who skipped the early voting states but will be on the ballot on Super Tuesday.
Public opinion polls show Mr Bloomberg, who has spent around half a billion dollars of his own money on his campaign to date, has risen in popularity among African-Americans in recent weeks, though many Democratic insiders question whether two disappointing televised debate performances and a resurgent Mr Biden will dent the former mayor’s chances.
Democratic presidential candidates who have commanded the most support from African-American voters have historically gone on to win their party’s nomination. Mr Biden has long been popular with African-Americans, in part due to his association with Barack Obama, while Mr Sanders has struggled to make inroads with older African-Americans but is popular with many young black voters.
Many Democratic establishment figures have cautioned that having Mr Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, at the top of the ticket could hurt Democrats in down-ballot races and risk returning the House of Representatives to Republican control.
“Joe Biden is the one person, and the only one, with the chance of winning this nomination that can go into every one of these congressional districts, into every one of these states, and have a positive influence on the outcome,” Mr Clyburn told congregants at the Simon Temple on Sunday. “Everybody can have influence. But will it be positive or will it be negative? That is the issue.”
I just feel comfortable that he (Biden) is the man to beat that man in the White House. We watched what happened in South Carolina, and if anyone can do it, he can make it happen too
Albert Scruggs Jr, retired teacher.
The message resonated in Fayetteville, where Democrat Dan McCready narrowly lost to Republican Dan Bishop in a special election last year to represent North Carolina’s ninth congressional district. The special election was held after the state board of elections ruled that a Republican operative had illegally collected incomplete absentee ballots — and in some cases filled them in.
North Carolina will be the third-largest state to award delegates on Super Tuesday, behind California and Texas, and is seen by both Democrats and Republicans as a key swing state in November’s general election. Donald Trump won it by three points over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Four years earlier, Mitt Romney won North Carolina by a narrower margin, successfully “flipping” the state after Mr Obama won there in 2008.
Mr Bloomberg has also staked his campaign in the state on being able to win over moderates and carry down-ballot races for Democrats.
At Mr Bloomberg’s campaign office in Charlotte on Sunday morning, Marcia Kirkpatrick, a 50-year-old African-American woman who is a full-time carer for her elderly parent, said Mr Bloomberg had inspired her to volunteer for a political campaign for the first time.
While she acknowledged Mr Biden had some advantages with African-Americans, she said it was Mr Bloomberg, rather than the former vice-president, who reminded her of Mr Obama.
“[Joe Biden] has worked as our former vice-president. That gives him big cahoots,” she said. “But Obama came out of nowhere, we didn’t know who he was, but look how he shot up on the charts. We look at Bloomberg, he came in and saw a need. And so with that, he came in and now he is climbing.”
But at Simon Temple in Fayetteville, most churchgoers insisted they were “ridin’ with Biden”.
Nervahna Crew, a 40-year-old local politician from Wake County, said Mr Bloomberg only affected Mr Biden’s chances “if people are really willing to have their votes be bought and paid for”.
Albert Scruggs Jr, a 73-year-old retired teacher who said he still has scars where police dogs bit him during the Civil Rights movement, voted early for Mr Biden, as did his wife.
“A lot of people do respect him because of what he has already done,” Mr Scruggs said. “I just feel comfortable that he is the man to beat that man in the White House. We watched what happened in South Carolina, and if anyone can do it, he can make it happen too.”
Exit mobile version