Maize, banana, tomatoes, wheat, fish and almost every other primary food item one can think of are all brought into Nigeria and captured either officially or unofficially. In the latter case, the food items are said to be “smuggled”, and smuggling is done in massive quantities to meet the needs of a rapidly growing population estimated at 190 million.
The importation of food into Nigeria is not done as a matter of luxury or show-off but because there is acute food shortage, and if globally adopted standards of food security are anything to go by, then Nigeria is not food-secure.
Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.
The four pillars of food security are availability, access, utilisation and stability. The nutritional dimension is integral to the concept of food security, as defined in the draft declaration of the United Nation’s World Summit on Food Security in 2009.
Even though President Muhammadu Buhari expressed the view that Nigeria has achieved food security, the country, on factual basis, does not fit the definition of a food-secure nation, going by the earlier definition as well as others findings.
The 2019 report on ‘The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World’, for instance, identified Nigeria as a country facing food crisis, driven largely by “high food prices and low purchasing power”.
“Food availability, accessibility, and utilisation remain significant challenges in Nigeria,” noted the 2018 Global Food Security Strategy (GFSS) Country Plan for Nigeria by Feed the Future, the US government’s global hunger and food security initiative.
The short answer, said the CEO of a company that has invested heavily in agriculture across different parts of Nigeria, is “we are not food-secure, we import a chunk of our food”. The CEO was, however, worried about any quotes challenging the government, a fear shared by many others.
“Many countries import their food, but ours is a bit much,” he said.
Taiwo Oyedele, head of tax and corporate advisory services, PwC Nigeria, wrote on Twitter that
“Nigeria is not food sufficient” as available data suggest the contrary.
“Stopping FX allocation to importers of foods will have unintended consequences,” Oyedele said.
In another tweet, he wrote, “Self-sufficiency in food production cuts across the entire value chain including logistics, transportation, storage, etc. Restricting FX without first addressing these related problems is putting the cart before the horse.”
Oyedele’s position reinforces that of the CEO quoted earlier, who said it was not wise to ban or restrict completely because there would be too much disruption.
If there will be any measures to boost local production, said the CEO who does not want to be named, it can be done by raising duties and tariffs slightly. Going from 5 to 10 percent, or 10 to 15 percent, is enough to motivate and push local producers to develop their local supply chain, without creating so much disruption in the food imports required.
“By the time we say ban or restrict FX, then prices will go through the roof, since there aren’t local substitutes and not enough time for companies to react and scale up local supply,” he said.
The Agriculture Promotion Policy (APP), 2016 to 2020, which for all intent represents the country’s agriculture roadmap, highlighted that “food security at national level is achieved by a combination of domestic food production, imports and strategic storage”. Out of these three sources expected to drive food security, only one (primary production) is functional, and even so, barely scratching the surface.
Nigeria required 4.7 million metric tonnes (MMT) of wheat as at 2016, according to the APP, but only produced 60,000 MT; 7.5 MMT of maize but produced 7MMT; 750,000 MT of soya beans but produced 600,000 MT, and 2.2 MMT of tomato but produced 800,000 MT.
Nigeria also had a demand of 39 MMT of yam but only produced 37 MMT; required 8 MMT of palm oil but produced 4.5 MMT; required 3.6 MMT of cocoa but produced 250,000 MT; required 7 MMT of sorghum but produced 6.2 MMT; required 2.7 MMT of fish but only produced 800,000 MT, and required 200 million chickens but produced 140 million as at the time of the report.
When the agriculture policy was published in 2016, Nigeria had a deficit across every type of food produce, and three years later, with the rapidly growing population, and insecurity threatening farming activities in many parts of the country, this deficit could have, in fact, increased substantially.
The third parameter, which is strategic storage, is also not in place. It was only at the twilight of Buhari’s first tenure in May that the Federal Government handed over silo complexes to concessionaires.
These facilities with varying capacities should enable Nigeria to have strategic food reserves, especially grains, but these are currently lacking, and particularly in volumes that would avert crisis in the event of any unforeseen circumstances.
Food shortages may arise due to structural or incidental low production (droughts, disasters) and in the absence of sufficient forex and proper infrastructure to import and distribute food across the country. At present, there is no backup to keep Nigeria running.
“Food shortages (real or anticipated) drive up prices and thereby jeopardise access to food for urban and rural population,” according to the FG’s APP document, a situation now being precipitated by the president’s directives to the CBN.
“The policy will do more harm than good, both to investors and the citizens,” said Muda Yusuf, director general, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), in an earlier statement when the restriction of forex for milk was announced. “It would trigger avoidable disruptions and dislocations in the investment environment and further undermine investors’ confidence. It would create huge supply gaps in the market with severe harmful consequences,” Yusuf said.
The same implications are now expected, but even on a larger scale, crippling food supply on all fronts and increasing the already bad situation of hungry people.
As Yusuf noted, any restriction of forex is tantamount to a ban as most banks would not process Form M for any product on the CBN forex exclusion list.
While BusinessDay had reported that 5.3 million Nigerians experienced acute food crisis in 16 states of northern Nigeria last year, when the country was identified among eight countries with the worst food crises in 2018, it was further noted that 22.7 million Nigerians in the North alone are at risk of food crisis if things do not improve.
With the direction President Buhari is headed, not only is the already food-insecure North, but the whole of Nigeria, may be plunged into severe food crisis sooner than expected.
It could get worse, as Nigeria is expected to be the third most populous country in the world by 2050, overtaking the United States and coming after both China and India.
World Population prospects published by the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs noted Nigeria’s population, currently the seventh largest in the world, is growing the most rapidly, and it is projected to be 411 million by 2050.
Currently, 43.6 percent of children in Nigeria have stunted growth, according to the 2018 Global Nutrition Report. The prevalence of stunting is still classified as a high public health concern, according to World Health Organisation (WHO) standards. Wasting, a reflection of acute malnutrition, affects approximately 18 percent of children under five years old in Nigeria, which, according to WHO standards, is a very high public health concern, noted Feed the Future in its 2018 action plan for Nigeria.
In terms of under-five children with stunted growth, Nigeria ranks second in the world with 13.9 million children, and retains the same position among countries with under-five wasting, having 3.4 million children, according to the Global Nutrition Report.
In addition, Feed the Future’s report noted 71 percent of children and 48 percent of women of reproductive age are anaemic. Nutritionally, women are also affected by the burdens of being underweight (11 percent) and obese (25 percent).
In 2018, Action Against Hunger reported that its food security programmes have reached approximately one million people in Nigeria, “increasing their social protection, providing food assistance through cash and vouchers, promoting income-generating activities, and cultivating vegetable gardens”. The NGO is one of dozens that continue to spend millions of dollars to feed hungry Nigerians, who are unable to afford even basic meals, let alone good nutrition.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in the first quarter of 2019, the trade in agricultural goods stood at N322.4 billion, representing 3.9 percent of the value of total trade.
The export component of this trade was valued at N86.1 billion. In terms of imports, agricultural products were valued at N236.33 billion or 6.4 percent of total imports during the period under review. The major driver was Durum wheat, followed by Mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus) meat, herrings and other frozen protein food items.
For full year 2018, data by the NBS showed imported agricultural goods accounted for N852.11 billion, a 4 percent decrease from N886.7 billion in 2017. The 2017 figure was, however, an increase of 35.09 percent when compared to N656.4 billion in 2016. On the other hand, Nigeria exported a total of N302.24 billion worth of agricultural goods in 2018.
“Supplying food to the country cannot be done overnight, you have to plan for it,” noted the earlier unnamed CEO. With this policy, “smuggling will go through the roof because the food will still have to come into country”, he said.
CALEB OJEWALE
