The Central Bank of Nigeria’s statement that Nigeria’s Diaspora remittance stood at $2.6 billion is contradicting official CBN data which show the actual Diaspora remittance stood at $24 billion as at 2018, a fact check by BusinessDay has revealed.
THE CLAIM
Isaac Okorafor, CBN director, Corporate Communications Department, in a chat with a media firm at the weekend, said the total inflow from Nigerians living abroad is $2.6 billion and not $26 billion, as being quoted in some quarters.
According to him, the data, purported to be from the World Bank, had also been queried by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the CBN, as it did not reflect the actual amount of inflows from Nigerians living abroad.
“Now, when the World Bank sums up the dollar value of inflows from Nigerians living abroad, they say we receive remittances of $26 billion. I’m disappointed that enlightened people could now say remittances is $26 billion, giving an impression as if CBN has it in its pocket,” Okorafor said.
THE FACT
To check for the authenticity of the $2.6 billion remittances claim by the Central Bank, BusinessDay proceeded to obtain official data as published by the apex bank.
The data obtained from the CBN’s Balance of Payment report put Diaspora inflows in the country at $24.009 billion in 2018. This contradicts the earlier comments of the CBN’s spokesman who claimed the Diaspora remittance was $2.6 billion. Efforts to reach Okorafor proved abortive as he didn’t response to calls from BuisnessDay about the subject matter.
WHAT OTHER REPORTS ARE SAYING
Further findings revealed CBN’s data of $24.009 billion is similar to World Bank’s data. World Bank estimated Nigeria’s Diaspora remittance would hit $24.311 billion, about 6.11 percent of its gross domestic product.
Another report by a government agency, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said remittances from Nigerians abroad rose to $24.05 billion (N7. 3 trillion) in 2018, from $21.5 billion (N6.5 trillion) in 2017.
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC), a private multinational professional services network with headquarters in London, United Kingdom, estimates that migrant remittances to Nigeria could grow to $25.5 billion, $29.8 billion and $34.8 billion in 2019, 2021 and 2023, respectively, while over a 15-year period, PwC expects total remittance flows to Nigeria to almost double in size from $18.37 billion in 2009 to $34.89 billion in 2023.
“The growth in remittances is subject to global economic forces, which could spur or hinder growth of remittance flows. Other factors that will drive remittance flows include growth in emigration rate, economic conditions of the resident countries and the economic fundamentals in the Nigerian economy,” PwC said in its report titled “Strength from Abroad: the Economic Power of Nigeria’s Diaspora”.
EXPERTS’ CONCERN
Over time, stakeholders have raised concerns that the officially recorded remittances into the country are much lower than the actual remittances that take place through unofficial channels. This means a larger chunk of Nigeria’s remittances flows through the unofficial channels.
Gbolahan Ologunro, a research analyst at Lagos-based CSL Stockbrokers, said the CBN’s spokesman might be unaware that the CBN actually tracks the data or he hasn’t even gone through the data before.
Ologunro noted that Diaspora inflows are a major source of finance in funding capital projects in developing countries but in the case of Nigeria, they are not making that major impact.
“The reason is because there are no structures on ground to see how government can harness Diaspora inflows. They need to design a framework to ensure that those Diaspora inflows can be targeted towards specific projects that are capable of generating cash flows for the government to complement revenues from oil and non-oil sources,” Ologunro said.
DIPO OLADEHINDE & MICHAEL ANI
