Businesses still reeling from the pandemic-induced economic lockdown in the second quarter have cause to worry once again over an apparent second wave of the virus in Nigeria.
A sustained rise in community transmission of COVID-19 has dragged Nigeria into a second wave of the pandemic that has claimed 1,197 lives locally and over 1.6 million globally.
In the past 14 days, 5,618 new coronavirus cases have been recorded in Nigeria, raising the total number of infections since the start of the pandemic to 73,175 as of December 13.
A fresh record of highest daily cases was set December 13 with 796 infections, overtaking 790 cases set July 1 during the gradual easing of the two-month-long lockdown that affected the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja, Lagos and Ogun States.
Rosemary Audu, head of virology at the Nigeria Institute of Medical Research (NIMR), Yaba, hinged the resurgence mainly on how many have thrown caution to the wind since the easing of the lockdown.
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While capacity for testing has increased with the opening of additional sample collection sites and the coming on board of private laboratories, living without consideration that the virus remains a serious threat to public health has been the leading force for the second bout of the disease, she said.
“People are no longer observing precautions and that’s why we are seeing increased number of infected individual. It’s not so much about the testing sites because even when these sites were fully open, cases were declining,” Audu said.
“It’s also not so much about international travel. Already, the virus is with us. The people infecting others are within the community and the reason they are able to do so is because people are no longer using precautions,” she said.
Several Nigerian businesses are only just recovering from a government-imposed lockdown in the second quarter that upended their operations and dampened earnings.
Business owners who spoke to Business Day are apprehensive over the resurgence of the virus, as they are unsure how their businesses would cope if there was another government-imposed lockdown to curb the rising spread of the virus.
“I doubt if any business owner will get good sleep knowing that the second wave of the virus is upon us,” said John Imafidon, who runs a travel agency.
“It’s so sad that it’s when businesses are gradually recovering that the virus rears its ugly head again. I wouldn’t say I’m surprised given how people have largely shelved precautionary measures in Lagos and other parts of the country,” Imafidon said.
His views were no different from all the business owners contacted by BusinessDay.
In Lagos where 34 percent of the total infection and 19 percent of total deaths have occurred, bustling activities around sale and purchase of nose masks and hand sanitising liquids have faded. Commercial vehicles operators now care less about enforcing the use of nose-masks as they operate at full capacity in most places. Laxity towards precaution has surged in educational centres, workplaces, markets, religious centres and leisure centres where activities have opened at full swing, with the exception of few big shopping malls and hospitals still insisting on caution.
Babajide Sanwo-Olu, governor of Nigeria’s commercial capital Lagos, tested positive in one of the latest infection bouts among political leaders.
Also in one of the latest losses to the country, John Irefin, General Officer Commanding 6 Division Port Harcourt of the Nigerian Army, died of coronavirus complications.
Jacob Yisau, microbiologist and health researcher, warned that the complacency among Nigerians could potentially force another lockdown measure, too much for Nigeria to afford at a point it’s struggling with recession and World Bank projects it could take three years to recover.
The total lockdown that began in March and lasted five weeks caused Nigeria’s GDP to suffer a 34.1 percent loss, amounting to $16 billion, with two-thirds of the losses coming from the services sector, according to International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPR’s) study.
Femi Olugbile, a consultant psychiatrist, said a second lockdown would be economically injurious in a situation where people are still trying to get over the effects of the first lockdown.
“In the light of recent events in society and the air of general mistrust of government and its operations and intentions, as exemplified by the rumpus in various places over ‘COVID19 palliatives’, as well as the wide circulation of COVID19-denying conspiracy theories, compliance may be patchy and require strong-arm enforcement, which may further worsen relationship between the government and the governed,” Olugbile said.
“Psychologically it would be traumatic for many individuals, increasing the unmet need for psychological care and support. At a social level, it could worsen an already delicate security situation.
“All in all, it is advisable that every possible avenue be pursued to ramp up protective and preventive measures and improve citizens’ compliance in order to limit the spread of the virus and remove the need for a drastic lockdown. An early delivery of some of the promised allocation of Pfizer-BIONTech vaccine and its strategic deployment may also be useful in staving off the impending crisis,” he said.
Speaking further, Yisau noted that even though international travel plays a role in the resurgence due to the weak system of enforcing isolation, the contribution has not been as significant as local transmissions.
Between November 30 and December 6, the number of international travellers with a positive result after the 7th day of arrival was 81 compared with 59 in the week before it.
“If the protocol is well enforced, I will rule out international travel. The case with the enforcement of the protocol is important because the seven-day quarantine is self-observed. Like when I got back from Dakar, I was the one who insisted on the appropriate observance of the quarantine. If I wasn’t strict on it, my family would not have minded it,” Yisau said.
“But generally, most Lagosians if not all do not abide by NPIs. So, that could quietly be seeding the infection in vulnerable populations,” he said.
Millions of UK citizens were forced back into another lockdown early in November after government data showed a further 25,177 people tested positive for COVID-19 across the UK in 24 hours, the second-highest figure on record, bringing the total near to 1.1 million. Those infections attracted further 492 fatalities which raised the death toll to 47,742.
The government compelled all secondary school pupils and their teachers to wear face masks in schools and in communal places where social distancing cannot be practiced under new rules.
France went into a four-week lockdown on Oct. 29. Germany closed bars, clubs, and movie theatres and limited restaurants to delivery and takeout since November. Spain implemented a curfew between 11 pm and 6 am. Belgium closed non-essential stores, while Greece implemented lockdowns in one city and two regions.
In the US where the president has not adopted the lockdown approach despite hitting 163,000 new cases, one of its highest daily records, some its states have had to practice partial restrictions in public places, with Chicago for instance announcing a stay-at-home advisory starting Nov. 16.
Businesses in Nigeria fret the economic distress that is to follow a move such as this one.
Unlike Europe and UK, where the burden is somewhat eased with government offering business loans, tax relief, and cash grants to businesses, while also supporting workers through wage subsidies, Nigeria lacks the capacity.
Over a month ago, the president had pleaded with Nigerians to observe precautions as the economy itself is in a precarious situation.
