In the race to a net-zero carbon future, clean electricity and renewable energy sources are emerging as the ultimate fuels of the future, with biofuels to fly planes and hydrogen for energy storage.
Collated by Stanford University, a collection of 47 peer-reviewed research papers by 91 authors analysed different scenarios to examine whether individual countries or entire regions could get by solely relying on renewables.
The papers looked at a range of different situations and geographies, including small island states, major powers and countries in Sub-saharan Africa. In each case, they found that energy for electricity, transport, building heating or cooling and industry can be supplied reliably with 100 percent — or near 100 percent — renewable energy, at different locations around the world.
To be sure, challenges exist and the targets are ambitious. Still, the reports all conclude that technology exists for the world to transition to a full sustainable energy system by 2050, which should keep the planet below the 1.5°C Paris global warming target.
Countries around the world are already setting dates of when to ban sales of new internal combustion petrol and diesel engines in preparation for a zero-net emissions environment of 2050. Austria’s ban begins this year, Britain’s starts in 2030.
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Germany starts a ban on internal combustion engines in 2030 and China in 2040. Denmark, Japan and Norway have designed incentives to encourage the purchase of electric vehicles.
Oil and gas has been central to the world’s energy system for the last 100 years but climate activism has been rising too. After years of criticism over alleged inaction, Blackrock, the world’s biggest asset manager, in January, revealed plans to put climate change at the centre of its investment process by rolling out new Environment Social and Governance (ESG) funds, divesting some coal holdings and taking a tough line on global warming during boardroom discussions with businesses around the world.
With Nigeria’s economy still dependent on crude oil sales for over 80 percent of foreign exchange earnings, and at least 50 percent of government revenue, Africa’s biggest crude oil producer faces a future where the relevance of fossil fuel in the global energy system wanes rapidly.
Renewable power capacity is set to expand by 50 percent between 2019 and 2024, led by solar PV. This increase of 1200 gigawatts (GW) is equivalent to the total installed power capacity of the United States today. Solar PV alone accounts for almost 60 percent of the expected growth, with onshore wind representing one-quarter, according to an International Energy Agency renewable energy report last year.
Offshore wind contributes 4 percent of the increase, with its capacity forecast to triple by 2024, stimulated by competitive auctions in the European Union and expanding markets in China and the United States.
The Hague-based Maarten Wetselaar, integrated gas and new energies director at Shell Global, affirms at the just-concluded Great Energy Debate 2020 that the fuel of the future is clean electricity.
“That is going to be the one that will dominate the energy systems for energy consumers. Alongside that there will be biofuels to fly planes, there will be hydrogen to store energy, but the energy that customers will use will be clean electricity. We need to phase out oil and gas but it will not happen tomorrow.”
The displacement of coal by gas in the last 10 years in Asia has saved the world more than 500 million tonnes of CO2, according to IEA. People familiar with the global energy systems say natural gas is to work with renewables to create a cleaner energy future.
When the sun does not shine and the wind does not blow, consumers need a better backup for power; natural gas is more environmentally friendly where people do not have hydro or battery.
Wetselaar also holds that oil and gas need to be phased out over time but that cannot happen immediately. “We need to avoid emissions, reduce emissions, and only the ones that are critically left we need to offset either by nature or carbon capture technologies.”
Nigeria’s silent off- grid revolution
Nigeria has not set any timeline to ban petrol and diesel engines. On the contrary, the country is in another race to grow local refining capacity and some experts say emerging economies may not be able to afford the luxuries of powering its energy heavy industries with renewables.
