Today is 31 December, the last day of 2018 and the eve of 2019. It’s a bridge between the old and the new! And it behoves us, on this day, to say ‘goodbye’ to the outgoing year. So, this column wants to say adieu to 2018. But in doing so, I want to focus on what defined the year and,in particular,what clues we can get from it on where things are heading next year. What can we deduce from 2018 to chart the uncertain paths ahead, about the significant events in Nigeria, Africa and the rest of the world next year?
Let’s start with Nigeria. Well, 2018 has been dominated by pre-election politics. Apart from President Buhari’s perfunctory presentation of the (traditionally meaningless) budget on 19 December, the economy has received no serious attention this year. Last year, the government launched its Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP). One would have expected its hands to be full this year, turbo-charging the economy with much needed reforms. Alas, what we’ve seen are hyper activities on politics but policy inertia on the economy. Yet, even President Buhari recently admitted that the economy “is in bad shape”. The National Bureau of Statistics said youth unemployment rose from 3m in 2015 to 13m in 2018 (a 263% increase over 3½ years). Sadly, 2018 doesn’t bode well for the economy in 2019.
But what about politics? Well, from January to date, it’s all been about politicking and political manoeuvrings. The All Progressives Congress (APC) splintered, losing over 90% of the former members of people’s Democratic Party (PDP) that joined in 2014. The PDP prodigals, including former vice president Atiku Abubakar and Senate President Bukola Saraki, left the APC and returned to their former party. The APC didn’t only lose the defectors, it also lost a major supporter. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who strongly supported Buhari, the APC presidential candidate, in 2015, is now determined to orchestrate Buhari’s defeat next year. But with the recent news that Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, has joined the APC, serving as a special adviser to Buhari’s presidential campaign council, the APC seems to have had a major win.
So, what do the political events of 2018 tell us about next year’s presidential race? The truth is no one can, with certainty, predict the outcome.To pretend otherwise is sheer hubris. It’s interesting that even two arms of The Economist magazine disagreed on their predictions. While the Economist Intelligence Unit predicted that Atiku would win, The Economist magazine itself reckoned the winner would be Buhari. Predictions that are not based on scientific polls, but mere conjectures, are risky.
That said, if policies are enough to win an election, Atiku should win with his radical policies of political, economic and institutional reforms. Buhari’s pedestrian promises to fight corruption, tackle insecurity and expand social intervention programmes are not enough to move Nigeria forward. What’s more, given his current poor performance in these areas, they should not be enough to give him victory next year.
But politics is not always rational, it’s often emotional. Buhari has a cult of personality that gives him a worshipful image among his followers. Atiku doesn’t have such followings. Politics is a game of numbers. And it’s not clear that Atiku can beat Buhari in the North, without which he cannot win, despite strong support from the Southeast and the South-South. What’s more, Atiku carries a burden of negative perceptions and is running under a party that still has a serious image problem. As we have seen, the APC is already playing the integrity card, and they will play it mercilessly against Atiku and the PDP during the campaign. So, nothing in 2018 tells us much about the outcome of next year’s presidential race, although I would say that, as things currently stand, Buhari has a slight edge!
From Nigeria, let’s now turn to the rest of Africa. The main development in Africa this year is economic: the launch of the agreement establishing the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) in March this year. It was a landmark moment. Forty-four of Africa’s 55 countries signed the agreement in Kigali, Rwanda. Since then, 5 more have signed, bringing the number up to 49. Of course, Nigeria has, so far, failed to sign the agreement. On 22 October, President Buhari inaugurated the “Committee on the Impact and Readiness Assessment for the AfCFTA”, asking it to “develop short, medium and long-term measures to resolve the issues” raised by stakeholders, and to report in 12 weeks, i.e. in early January.
Of course, with the elections taking place in February, it’s unlikely the government would act on the report until after the elections, if at all. Which raises another question: even if Buhari wins, would he sign the AfCFTA agreement? Well, given the president’s lethargic approach to decision-making, and his lack of enthusiasm for free trade, the likelihood is if re-elected, he would kick the AfCFTA can down the road, although it would be deeply embarrassing if after the positive analyses Nigeria still refuses to sign the agreement. By contrast, Atiku made a commitment is his manifesto to sign the agreement, saying: “We are confident of the potential gains of our participation (in AfCFTA) and conscious of the risks of inaction”.There is thus a strong indication that if he wins, he would sign the agreement.
But the AfCFTA agreement does not need Nigeria’s signature to enter into force. It has already been signed by 49 countries, including South Africa. However, it requires 22 ratifications to enter into force. So far, 14 countries have ratified it. Given that it has taken 10 months, since March this year, to secure the 14 ratifications, it seems very unlikely that the remaining 8 could be secured within one month to enable the agreement to enter into force in January, as intended. However, what really matters is not the date –previous deadlines were missed – but that the agreement enters into force and other relevant negotiations are completed next year. But 2018 presages a very slow progress in 2019 on thetake off and implementation of the AfCFTA agreement.
Now, let’s look at the rest of the world. And, here, the dominant issue is Brexit, the UK’s decision to leave the European Union. After nearly two years of tortuous negotiations, the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, secured a withdrawal deal with the EU in November this year. But the deal is very unpopular with UK parliamentarians, particularly on the so-called backstop, designed to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, but which would keep the UK tied to the EU customs union and regulatory regime, even after leaving the bloc. Several ministers, senior and junior, resigned from the government because of the deal. The prime minister, knowing she would lose a vote on the deal, cancelled the scheduled voting in the House of Common on 10 December. She said she would go back to Brussels to secure legal clarifications on the backstop. But a few days later, some members of her party triggered a vote of confidence in her leadership, which she won by 200 votes to 117.
But the issue has not gone away. The EU has, so far, not given the prime minister any legal guarantee on the backstop, and the postponed voting in the House of Commons would now take place in January. All of this raises questions about what would happen to Brexit next year. Given that 29 March 2019 has been set in legislation as the exit date, does it mean that if the prime minister loses the vote in January, the UK would leave the EU without a deal? Of course, that would be devasting in many areas, particularly for businesses. Some are talking about other alternative options, such as postponing the exit date or holding a second referendum. But 2018 shows us that Britain will face a very rocky 2019 on the Brexit issue. It is an interesting year to watch for Britain!
And for the US too! As I write, the US government has been shutdown for several days, due to disagreement between President Trump and Congress over funding for his plan to build a wall along the Mexican border. But the gridlock may get worse next year, because, in November this year, Democrats won the House of Representatives, while the Republicans retained the Senate, ushering in a divided government. Would 2019 be dominated by the Democrats probing President Trump and even impeaching him? 2018 presages deeper political divides in 2019.
Then, finally, China’s fractious relationship with the West. The tariff war between the US and China took a dramatic turn in 2018, with tit-for-tat tariff hikes. President Trump threatened to add 25% tariff on another $250bn worth of Chinese imports in January 2019. A truce agreed between President Trump and President Xi Jinping early this December led to a suspension of the tariff threat. But would it unravel in 2019? What about the ongoing row about Chinese companies allegedly spying on the West? Would this escalate in 2019?
The outgoing year, 2018, has been challenging, but it’s presaging a rockier one for Nigeria and the world. Interesting times ahead!
Season’s greetings, dear readers!
Olu Fasan
