In 2019, Abiy Ahmed, the Ethiopian Prime Minister was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to reform and democratise Ethiopia and for making peace with neighbouring Eritrea by ending a long-running border war. Ahmed came to power in 2018 on the heels of protests and demand for inclusion and instantly set about dismantling the over 30 years authoritarian rule of the four-party alliance Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), whose senior and dominant partner was the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). He promptly released all political prisoners, allowed all the exiled to return home, opened up the democratic space, initiated major economic reforms and also did the unthinkable – signed a peace deal with Ethiopia’s biggest foe, Eritrea, almost immediately, ending decades border standoff.
The world was literally wowed by the speed of the earth-shaking reforms being undertaken by this young and dynamic leader in Africa and the Norwegian Nobel Committee promptly awarded him the Nobel Peace Prize in December 2019 in recognition of “his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea,” resulting in a peace deal they hope “will help to bring about positive change for the entire populations of Ethiopia and Eritrea.”
However, less than a year after, Ahmed is leading a military campaign against the Tigray region that has killed thousands and displaced millions more with credible accusations of ethnic cleansing and war crimes being levelled against the Ethiopian and Eritrean troops. How did it all go wrong for Ahmed in such a short time? Was the peace deal with Eritrea a ruse after all?
There were many Ethiopians and Eritreans who think instead of a Nobel Peace Prize, Abiy Ahmed and the Eritrean dictator Isaias Afwerki should have received an Oscar for their performances. Critics have argued that what was advertised as a peace deal was rather an opportunistic realignment of forces against a common foe – Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The Nobel Committee was ignorant of or chose to ignore the internal politics of Ethiopia or even the dynamics of the conflict between the two warring countries and took Abiy’s peace initiatives at face value.
But as the world was celebrating Ahmed, his decision to open the democratic space back at home opened the floodgates and previously suppressed ethnic tensions came bursting out and flowing over
What was known as the Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict was mainly between the TPLF and the Eritrean dictator, Afwerki. After Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993, a failure to demarcate the border led to a deadly two-year war from 1998 to 2000 that left over 80, 000 dead on both sides.
Although a peace deal was agreed between the two parties in 2000 that ended hostilities, the deal was not honoured by the TPLF and the border dispute remained unresolved, resulting in a state of “no-peace-no-war” between the two sides. Consequently, diplomatic relations were severed, borders closed and air travel halted between the neighbours.
Of course, Ethiopia lost access to the sea but also succeeded in isolating Eritrea diplomatically. Afwerki used that opportunity to consolidate his power, unleashing a reign of terror on opponents and dissenters, shut down free press and used the excuse of being in a state of war to conscript most young people to indefinite period of national service in the military.
To undermine the rule of the TPLF, Afwerki decided on a policy of support for Ethiopian opposition groups especially with the Oromos, the largest ethno-linguistic group of about 35 million people, constituting more than one-third of the population.
The TPLF that had been in charge of Ethiopia since 1991 badly miscalculated when, in 2018, at the height of anti-government protests in several parts of the country, made a significant concession by choosing Abiy Ahmed of the Oromo Democratic Party, one of the junior partners in the EPRDF Coalition, as Prime Minister. The TPLF saw Ahmed, then in his early 40s, had served in the military, was an intelligence officer, and rose through the ranks in the ruling government, as a relatively safe pair of hands whose appointment would not only pacify the protesters, but, in the words of Declan Walsh of the New York Times, “would guarantee the continuation of the same system of rule and guarantee the interests of the Tigrayan political elite.”
No sooner had Ahmed taken power than he began to dismantle the hold of the TPLF on power and to build powerful coalitions against it. That explains the lightning speed with which peace with Eritrea was reached. Of course, beyond the financial and international benefits for both Abi and Afwerki, the two came together essentially, according to Vanessa Tsehaye, a Swedish-Eritrean activist, “under the guise of peace to isolate the TPLF….The TPLF and Eritrean government remain enemies… There is still no peace between the groups who initiated the original border conflict.” Tsehaye branded the peace deal, in an opinion piece for CNN on December 10 2019, as “political opportunism.”
But as the world was celebrating Ahmed, his decision to open the democratic space back at home opened the floodgates and previously suppressed ethnic tensions came bursting out and flowing over. Abiy struggled to contain the protests for regional autonomy and soon after reverted to the old play book. He began locking up political opponents, curtailing the freedom of the press and unleashing brutality against protesters. From a young, liberal and dynamic leader, Abiy quickly moved back to the authoritarianism that he was supposed to have replaced. What is more, he was setting the stage for a brutal confrontation with his erstwhile benefactors – the Tigrayan ruling elite – by marginalising them from power and prosecuting some of them for human right abuses, corruption and other sundry crimes.
Matters came to a head in March when Abiy postponed the much anticipated August 2020 general elections for 10 months over covid-19. The TPLF ignored him and went ahead with the elections in its region, winning by a landslide and setting it on a collision course with the federal government.
On November 4, while the world was focused on the US elections, Abiy claimed the TPLF attacked a northern military command post and ordered federal forces into Tigray. His new buddy, Isaias Afwerki, also sent in troops to assist in neutralising the TPLF. To control the flow of information, the Ethiopian government effectively locked down the Tigray region, imposing communications and internet blackout of the region, and preventing aid agencies, medics and journalists from entering the region.
After more than six months of fighting, reports from the region are harrowing: thousands have died, most of the region’s 5.5 million people urgently need humanitarian aid, and more than 2 million are displaced. Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers are accused of targeting and massacring civilians, extrajudicial killings, widespread looting and rape. What is more, they are also accused of blocking food aid and stopping farmers from harvesting, ploughing, or planting, and killing livestock and looting farm equipment. Tigray is on the brink of famine, a crisis that several diplomats have described as “manmade.”
As a final slap on the face of Ethiopians, the twice postponed polls held on Monday with the exception of Tigray and other places deemed unsafe amid widespread calls for boycotts.
Maybe next time, the international community, especially the Nobel committee shouldn’t be too fast in canonising leaders. They should wait until they are safely out of office.
