On December 10, 2019, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stood before an enraptured audience at the Oslo City Hall in the Norwegian capital city and delivered a 20-minute acceptance speech. He was there to accept the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for his role in bringing peace to the troubled Horn region of East Africa, which includes Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia and Djibouti. At the end of his rousing address titled “Forging a Durable Peace in the Horn of Africa,” Ahmed got a standing ovation and why not?
He had after all, apparently masterminded the end of one of the world’s longest running and most bitterly fought conflicts between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Young-looking, smartly dressed, articulate and versed in using the right keywords and catchphrases that those in the international development space love to hear, PM Ahmed was a welcome departure from the African leadership space filled with your Biyas, Bongos, Musevenis, Buharis and Mnangagwas. Under him, Ethiopia had a gender equal cabinet and a 38 percent female parliament – up from just 3 percent in the mid-1990s.
This guy was the chosen one. The peacemaker. The technocrat. The articulate visionary. The new breed of African politician. A Nobel Peace Prize seemed to be the very least that he deserved in recognition of his achievement as well as the sheer amount of hope he embodied for the country that hosts the African Union headquarters in its capital city. So one can only imagine what the people who were in attendance at the Oslo City Hall just over a year ago must be thinking now as Ethiopia threatens to completely unravel before everybody’s eyes under the watch of the 2019 Nobel Laureate.
Who could have predicted this?
Abiy is not who he was presented as
Our post-2015 experience here in Nigeria has taught us a thing or two about presidential candidates who are basically PR and Marketing creations. Whatever we may have to say about the giant branding effort that turned Major General Muhammadu Buhari (Rtd) into President Major General Muhammadu Buhari (Rtd), Abiy Ahmed’s 2018 rise to power in Ethiopia took this to a completely different level.
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Ahmed is a smooth talking, verbally engaging and visually appealing character who mastered the science of positioning himself as the bridge between Ethiopia’s past and future. This was a country loosely founded on confederal principles with an economic model that leaned heavily toward the inefficient independence-era Marxist-socialism that we are familiar with across the continent. He was the candidate with the charisma and rhetoric of Ghadaffi but the pragmatism and economic savvy of Ian Khama.
In a move some say was calculated to mirror a 2008 Barack Obama, he even wrote a book outlining his “Medemer” philosophy and vision for Ethiopia in the 21st century. Medemer was presented as the way for Ethiopia to transition away from an everlasting ethnic power tussle and create a genuine Ethiopian identity. It would also modernise the economy and introduce a raft of market-led reforms and systemic political changes to boost growth and create an Ethiopian 21st century success story. Ahmed ticked every single box.
Medemer instead turned out to be the blunt force instrument of yet another African strongman dictator trying to arm-wrestle an entire country to bring it under his exclusive control. The transition away from long-standing ethnic power sharing agreements morphed into physical warfare, economic devastation and ethnic cleansing. The much-publicised conflict with the Tigaray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is just one part of a new brewing Ethiopian infinity war bringing bitter ethnic schism into the battlefield once again.
The restive Oromo region once again is on fire. Armed members of the country’s Somali ethnic group are now also fighting a kinetic war along ethnic lines. Already battered by COVID19, the economy has suffered immensely from the fresh round of conflicts as tourism revenue has ground to a halt, and the growth promised by ‘Medemer’ has simply failed to materialise. All of this however, was preventable right from genesis in 2018.
Visions of grandeur and religious fundamentalism
One thing about Mr. Ahmed that is not publicised anywhere near as often as his Nobel Peace Prize is that he is a committed and devout member of the Mulu Wongel (Full Gospel) Believers Movement, which counts 4.5 million Ethiopians among its members. The most familiar reference for this religious group for a Nigerian audience would be The Lord’s Chosen Charismatic Church. It is a Christian group that has some mainstream legitimacy, but has – to say the least – a lot going on under the hood.
According to several diplomats and former government officials who have interacted extensively with Ahmed, his faith is central to his leadership style. They almost unanimously report that he genuinely believes that he has been chosen by God to lead Ethiopia into a prosperous future based on a hodgepodge of navel-gazing jingoism, a somewhat naive Ethiopian nationalist sentiment and the idea that his chances of success are directly proportion to his ideological conviction.
Leveraging heavily on his faith, Ahmed reportedly believes in democracy-infused resurrection of the long-dead Ethiopian monarchy with himself at the centre of it. Predictably, he has also cultivated a fawning cult of personality and has obtained the nickname “Messiah.” He is effectively a mixture of regular African strongman instincts, the PR savviness of Barack Obama and the dark and dangerous religious fundamentalism of Narendra Modi.
Against this backdrop, Ethiopia now sits for the first time in two generations on the brink of total warfare as Medemer shreds the power-sharing agreements that have held the country together for 44 years. Ethiopia now has it’s very own Manchurian candidate as its head of state. How many of this will end remain to be seen, but only one thing is sure.
It will end badly, either for Ahmed or for Ethiopia. Possibly, for both.
