With regards to the Malthusian Theory of Population Growth, there is actually no consistent correlation between high population density in countries and real income per capita. Sub-Saharan Africa has much lower population density than prosperous Japan. Malaysia was much poorer when its population was lower than now that its population has risen by more than 300 percent. Densely populated places like Hong Kong and Singapore are actually quite prosperous. The point to make though is that these are countries with very high productivity rates. If Nigeria is to turn its population size to an advantage, it must focus more on increasing productivity, rather than representation and the sharing of increasingly scarce resources.
Globalisation and digital technology also mean that there are clear opportunities to turn what has been described as our youth timebomb into explosive growth. India took advantage of globalization and technology to position its youth as some of the leaders in the technology space. Technology giants like Google, Microsoft, Nokia and Adobe are all run by Indians. A lot of the leading lights in America’s Silicon Valley are Indians. It is worth pointing out that the Indian technology revolution did not start with government but was driven by the private sector, with government jumping on the bandwagon much later. Government cannot employ every unemployed Nigerian youth. It can, however, provide an enabling environment for their talent and industry to thrive.
Providing such as environment would mean making it easier to register small businesses, removing multiple taxation and providing incentives for innovation.
There is no developed country that is a rural agrarian society. In developed countries, more people live in urban areas. Urbanisation is actually a necessary corollary to development, so the rural-urban migration that we often see as a problem may simply be a necessary characteristic of development and growth. In the book ‘Making Africa Work: A Handbook’, President Olusegun Obasanjo, writing with Greg Mills, Jeffrey Herbst and Dickie Davis says:
“Cities must be seen as drivers of Africa’s diversified growth and jobs. Urban-centred growth represents a dramatic change from the export of natural resources, which has been central to most African economies.”
There is no developed country that is a rural agrarian society. In developed countries, more people live in urban areas. Urbanisation is actually a necessary corollary to development, so the rural-urban migration that we often see as a problem may simply be a necessary characteristic of development and growth
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Let us next look at our ethnic, cultural and religious diversity. Not many people know that more than 350 languages are actually spoken in the United States. Even in the United Kingdom that many would naturally see as English-speaking, 14 different indigenous languages are spoken. Various empirical studies have also shown that cultural diversity actually has the effect of significantly increasing output. Developed countries like Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States have greatly benefited from immigration, regardless of the fact that the last two countries mentioned have recently swung to the right. Rwanda suffered a damaging ethnic conflict that set two of its main ethnic groups against each other.
Today, Rwanda is one of the world’s fastest growing economies, currently growing at 7.6 percent. The argument that Nigeria is not working as well as it could because it is “a mere geographic expression” cobbled together by the British, according to Chief Obafemi Awolowo, is, in my view, a lame excuse. The USA, a cocktail of immigrants from all over the world, mixed with native Americans, was similarly cobbled together by force. The issue, therefore, is not ethnic, cultural or religious diversity. The issue is how that rich diversity is harnessed for the benefit of all.
The challenges facing Nigeria are undoubtedly daunting. To pretend that we do not have serious challenges will be intellectually dishonest. My argument in this paper, however, is that within each of these challenges exist significant opportunities. I have consistently argued against “Path Dependency” Theorists that claim that your future will be dictated by your past. We can rise above our challenges as a country. As the American actor James Dean once said, “I can’t change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination.” How do we adjust our sails as a country in order to get to our destination? Saint Francis of Assisi has some very good advice. He says: “Start by doing what is necessary; then do what is possible; and suddenly you are doing the impossible.”
