Due to improved securities combating crude oil heists, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s growth forecast to 3.2 percent from an earlier projected 3.1 percent.
According to the Washington-based lender, IMF noted the small upward revision for 2023 (0.1 percentage point) reflects Nigeria’s rising growth in 2023 due to measures to address insecurity issues in the oil sector.
“In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to remain moderate at 3.8 percent in 2023 amid prolonged fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, although with a modest upward revision since October, before picking up to 4.1 percent in 2024,” IMF said in its World Economic Outlook Update (January 2023) report.
It added, “The small upward revision for 2023 (0.1 percentage point) reflects Nigeria’s rising growth in 2023 due to measures to address insecurity issues in the oil sector. In South Africa, by contrast, after a COVID-19 reopening rebound in 2022, projected growth more than halves in 2023, to 1.2 percent, reflecting weaker external demand, power shortages, and structural constraints.”
IMF said the global economy will grow 2.9 percent this year — which represents a 0.2 percentage point improvement from its previous forecast in October. However, that number would still mean a fall from an expansion of 3.4 percent in 2022.
It also revised its projection for 2024 down to 3.1 percent.
“Growth will remain weak by historical standards, as the fight against inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine weigh on activity,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, director of the research department at the IMF, said in a blog post.
The outlook turned more positive on the global economy due to better-than-expected domestic factors in several countries, such as the United States.
“Economic growth proved surprisingly resilient in the third quarter of last year, with strong labor markets, robust household consumption and business investment, and better-than-expected adaptation to the energy crisis in Europe,” Gourinchas said, also noting that inflationary pressures have come down.
However, the picture isn’t totally positive. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned earlier this month that the economy was not as bad as some feared “but less bad doesn’t quite yet mean good.”
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IMF calculations say that about 84 percent of nations will face lower headline inflation this year compared to 2022, but they still forecast an annual average rate of 6.6 percent in 2023 and of 4.3 percent the following year.
As such, the Washington, D.C.-based institution said one of the main policy priorities is that central banks keep addressing the surge in consumer prices.
“Clear central bank communication and appropriate reactions to shifts in the data will help keep inflation expectations anchored and lessen wage and price pressures,” the IMF said in its latest report.
“Central banks’ balance sheets will need to be unwound carefully, amid market liquidity risks,” it added.
The IMF on Monday warned of several factors that could deteriorate the outlook in the coming months. These included the fact that China’s Covid reopening could stall; inflation could remain high; Russia’s protracted invasion of Ukraine could shake energy and food costs even further; and markets could turn sour on worse-than-expected inflation prints.
