The brevity of the coup d’état that took place, Monday, in oil-rich Gabon may not have come to many by surprise. It underscored the changes that have taken place on the political landscape across Africa as a continent. Back in the 1970s, the question by now would have been: Where next would this happen?
A group of soldiers sought to take power in Gabon on Monday while the country’s ailing president was abroad, but the government later declared that the bid had failed and the rebels arrested.
Gone are the days when coup d’états or unconstitutional changes of government were so rampant in Africa and had contagion effects. Then, a coup in one country could excite or inspire the military in neighbouring countries to also overthrow their governments. This was so in part because the Organisation of African Unity – the continental body then – did not help issues by recognising almost all regimes that came to power by means of coup d’états.
However, thanks to the so-called third wave of democratisation in the 1990s which saw renewed move towards democratisation, the OAU in 1999 decided to suspend any government that comes to power through unconstitutional means from the organisation. The decision was ratified at the Lome Summit in July 2000 where the organisation reiterated “its condemnation of all types of unconstitutional changes of government as anachronistic and in contradiction of its commitment to the promotion of democratic principles and constitutional rule”. The OAU went further by calling on the “United Nations…to join in the rejection of all types of unconstitutional changes anywhere in the world, and take appropriate measures against their perpetrators”.
These developments have provided safeguards for countries going through major turning points, such as an election, as is the case currently with Nigeria. In the past, a country at the verge of an election could wake up one morning to hear that for some reason, the military had decided to effect a change in the government, and one of the first things to be suspended would be the planned election, along with the Constitution and other institutions of government.
One of the factors that foster violent takeover of governments is the inclination of African leaders to hold on to office forever and pass power to family members, which leads to instability, says Opeyemi Agbaje, a public commentator and CEO at RTC Advisory Services.
“So, if there are no legal ways (to change the government) it leads to uprising,” Agbaje told BusinessDay over the telephone. “It’s unfortunate. It has implications for African leaders who continue to hold on to power.”
Agbaje cited examples of sit-tight presidents, including Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea and Omar al-Bashir of Sudan. One of Africa’s longest-serving presidents, Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, was forced out of office by the military in late 2017, after 37 years in office.
Agbaje said the coup attempt in Gabon has an implication for the forthcoming elections in Nigeria, especially if the election is perceived to be rigged or imposed.
“Perhaps we should expect something similar,” he warned. “That’s why it’s important we have elections that are free and fair; elections that are credible so that after the elections the government can have credibility.”
As the sit-tight political leaders provided the fertile ground for coup leaders, Africa’s Heads of Government forum soon became populated with military Generals and dictators, so much so that it was derisively referred to as a “dictators’ club”.
Besides the forum adhering to its principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of member countries, it was inconceivable that leaders who came to power through unconstitutional means would seriously oppose the same means by which they came to power.
Although it took some time to take root, coupists soon discovered it wasn’t going to be business as usual and international recognition was not going to come cheap. Between 2002 and 2009, for instance, there were about nine coup d’etats or unconstitutional changes of governments – Central African Republic (15 March 2003); Saõ Tome and Principé (17 July 2003); Guinea Bissau (14 September 2003 and 2009); Togo (5 February 2004); Mauritania (3 August 2005 and 6 August 2008); Guinea-Conakry (23 December 2008); and Madagascar (January 2002 and 17 March 2009).
Yet, not everyone believes that what happened in Gabon yesterday can happen in Nigeria.
“No, I don’t think what happened in Gabon would happen in Nigeria. The dynamics are different,” Rafiq Raji, chief economist at MacroAfricaintel, said.
Raji explained that Nigeria faced the risk during the 2015 elections had former President Goodluck Jonathan insisted on staying on, saying that no one would have predicted what could have happened. Now, the times have changed, he said.
“I think the elite and former military rulers have come to like the current democratic experiment since they now wield the most influence, run for office or sponsor candidates,” Raji told BusinessDay.
Election seasons in Nigeria are synonymous with war situations, a do-or-die affair. Barely a month to the country’s defining 2019 general elections, governance and business activities are almost at a standstill. Machiavellian intrigues, seismic political stunts, inter-party defections, impeachment plots are now the new normal in Nigeria.
Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari is banking on his perceived popularity in the North East and North West to give him another four years in next month elections, while leading opposition candidate, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, backed by a group of former military generals led by former President Olusegun Obasanjo, is hoping he can turn the table around.
“Besides, Obasanjo did a good job of purging the military of ambitious types who want to overtake power,” Raji said.
Nigeria experienced four coup d’états within a period of 10 years (1966-1975). The first shot was taken on January 15, 1966, and for several years later, the practice has almost become a vicious cycle for the country’s military.
The soldiers who challenged the coup in Gabon have been detained and there has been no reported disturbance to the country’s oil output, which accounts for just 0.5 percent of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) total production.
OPEC and its allies agreed on a harmonised effort to reduce production and rebalance the market, after a 20 percent slump in Brent prices late 2018.
“Any loss of Gabon’s crude is doubtful to significantly tighten the market or send prices higher,” Charles Akinbobola, energy analyst at Sofidam Capital Limited, said.
Gabon is a member of OPEC but is one of the smallest producers in the oil cartel, pumping just under 200,000 barrels a day in November, or approximately one-tenth of the output from Nigeria, Africa’s largest producer. The Central African country rejoined OPEC in 2016 after pulling out in 1995, following what it called “high membership fees” considering its low production.
According to data from an emerging and frontier markets-focused investment bank, Renaissance Capital (RenCap), Gabon exports 10 times more oil than Nigeria per person making it the third biggest oil exporter (per capita!) in Africa.
While Gabon might not be faced with another round of general elections till 2023, Africa largest oil producing country will be heading to the polls next month amid rising political uncertainty. Businesses and investors are taking a cautious approach to investing more money in the Nigerian economy or even raising new money to expand their existing operations.
The political wheeling and dealing playing out in Nigeria is having a butterfly-effect on the already fragile economy, volatile political climate, security, geo-political risk, and instability. For the second year in a row, the 2018 Fragile States Index (FSI) released by the Washington DC-based think-tank, Fund for Peace (FFP), ranked Nigeria as the 13th least stable country in the world.
CHRIS AKOR & DIPO OLADEHINDE
