Irrespective of religious affiliation, we are really in a season of celebration andto Nigerians and our dear President, His Excellency Muhammad Buhari, I say a big Season’s Greetings! For Christians, the birth of Jesus Christ, born without the original sin, signifies a rebirth, hope, love, redemption and oneness. Enhancing this special feast of nativity is the New Year when we thank the Almighty God for guiding and protecting us to a new year, for blessing us with the gift of life in this most precarious journey of existence. So it is a period worthy of celebration but the question is if Nigerians are really happy and celebrating!
Your Excellency, across the country, the story is same! Nigerians are sad, hungry, intensely divided, losing hope and love for one another and desperate for their voices to be heard and their numerous socio-economic problems addressed. They are increasingly feeling frustrated with the inability of the government to appreciate and tackle their lamentable situations. An encounter on the 20th December with a level 10 civil servant from one of the South West states properly captures the mood of majority of Nigerians. Without salary for about four months now, he visited Lagos to solicit for financial assistance from some of his relations. After receiving half bag of rice from one of his relations, he was full of joy which attracted my attention and our chat that day. He was happy that he will be able to cook rice and stew for his family of five for Christmas but very uncertain on where to get money to pay the school fees for two of his children in the university and two in the secondary school in January. With increasing debt used to support his children and unemployed wife, he lamented that he has lost the respect and regard of his relations and friends as he more of a liability to them. He beseeched me to help get jobs for his wife and two younger relations who are dependent on him.
Your Excellency, Nigerians are sad that even when they are ready to be underpaid and underemployed, there are no jobs! This was recently affirmed by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) that unemployment has gone up to about 23.1% which translates to about 21 million Nigerians unemployed but willing to work. 21 million is not a small number! While the population of Senegal is 15.85 million, Niger 22.3 million, Mali 19.1 million, Bukina Faso 19.7 million, Cameroon 24.05 million, Cote d’ivoire 24.29 million, Benin republic 11.49 million and Togo about 8 million. If the unemployed Nigerians were to be a country, they will be the fifth most populated country in the 17 countries that make up West Africa. In their 2019 report, World Economic Forum describes our unemployment situation as time bomb waiting to explode! It is a very serious situation and more troubling is the absence of a clear and concrete plan to address the challenge.
Your Excellency, we had hoped that some of these challenges will be properly addressed using the 2018 and 2019 budgets. Unfortunately, it has not been so. While the 2018 remains largely unexecuted, the 2019 budget seems to create more uncertainty and risk than solutions. Even though the behaviors of some of our honorable members during the 2019 budget presentation are highly condemnable, it shows the level of division, frustration anddecadence of our dear country under your watch and leadership. It is sad and should not be so! Not only was a clear explanation as to the delay in presenting the 2019 budget not properly offered, reading through it shows that it is overly ambitious and the key breakdown uninspiring. A situation where a further loan of about N1.649 trillion will be secured to fund the projected N1.859 trillion deficit even with the cries and warnings of our increasing unsustainable debt is difficult to understand. With the additional borrowing which will escalate our total debt to N24 trillion, our debt servicing alone for 2019 is put at N2.4 trillion from N2.0trillion in 2018. Using $60 per barrel and daily production of 2.3 million barrels gives an illusionary impression that Nigeria is immune to both internal and external factors that are likely to emerge as we enter 2019.
The most disturbing aspect of the budget is the allocation of only N2.031 trillion and N4.04 trillion for capital and recurrent expenditures respectively. From my readings and research of budgets of other developing and emerging markets, I have never come across where meaningful and inclusive growth is achieved using such ratio between capital and recurrent expenditures and a debt service allocation almost the size of the capital expenditure. Moreover, a further problem with Nigeria is the limited execution of agreed budgets. For instance, of the N2.87 trillion budgeted for capital expenditure in 2018, only N821 billion have been released as at December 2018. As execution of the capital expenditure remains the fulcrum for sustainable development including job creation, it is difficult to see how jobs most urgently needed will be created. It is well known that our other socio-economic problems such as insecurity, communal crises and violence, kidnapping cannot be disassociated with the high and unbearable unemployment level of our dear country.
Your Excellency, while there is no doubt of your good intentions for Nigeria, it is regrettable to inform you that the outcomes and performance of your government is not very convincing. Things are falling apart! As we go into 2019, I deeply implore you to have a rethink of the strategies that have been used to govern our dear country. It seems that the economic, social and political models used so far require proper rejigging if sustainable and inclusive growth will be achieved from 2019 onwards!Please be assured of our prayers and best wishes!
Franklin Nnaemeka Ngwu (PhD)
Dr. Ngwu is a Senior Lecturer in Strategy, Finance and Risk Management, Lagos Business School and a Member, Expert Network, World Economic Forum.
