Politicians are preparing to do battle in 2019 just as they did in 2015. The timeline on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) website shows that the election is just 186 days away. As defections and counter defections create uncertainty over the potential outcome of the 2019 elections, it would be interesting to look back on how Nigerians voted in 2015 especially in the all-important presidential elections.
In the 2015 elections, the total number of valid votes actually stood at 28.6 million. President Muhammadu Buhari, who emerged winner in that election got 15.4 million votes, representing 53.8 percent of total votes cast. Then incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan got 12.9 million votes, representing 45 percent of total votes cast. Buhari and Jonathan therefore got 98.8 percent of the total votes cast on the 2015 presidential elections.
All other opposition candidates got less than two percent of the votes. This may explain why there are so many presidential candidates jostling to get the PDP ticket for the 2019 elections since it represents the best alternative vehicle to the Presidency besides that of the ruling APC. It cannot be ruled out that the different alliances taking shape could upset the control of the two parties over public offices. But if the voting pattern in recent governorship elections is anything to go by, the best path way to public officer still remains the platform either the PDP or the APC.
However, a key part of the 2015 elections was the use of card readers which provided some significant insights into the profile of the average Nigerian voter that was difficult to get in previous elections. It should be noted that of the 28.6 million valid votes cast in the 2015 elections, only 23 million voters got accredited with the card reader. Even of this number, only 10.3 million voters were fully accredited. Being fully accredited means that a voters’ card matched with their fingerprints. The card reader could not recognise the fingerprints of 13.4 million voters even though their cards were read by the card reader.
The data from the 23 million voters who had some form of accreditation with the card reader provides some interesting insights into the profile of the Nigerian voter. Fishermen and farmers account for the largest chunk of Nigeria’s voting population by occupation. They make up an average of 21 percent of all those who voted in the 2015 presidential elections. They are followed closely by students who made up the next largest voting bloc accounting for 20 percent of voters in the 2015 elections and then housewives with 18 percent of votes.
Cumulatively, the three groups accounted for 59 percent of total votes in the 2015 presidential elections. This basically means that any presidential candidate who really wants to win an election in the country must have the backing of these groups or forget about Aso Rock. Interestingly, except for the student group, these are also the set of people that are least likely to spend time on the internet or have access to newspapers. They are also likely to be the least educated. This means a presidential candidate cannot rely on the conventional communication means to reach them.
The next group with the biggest voting block is the business community which accounted for 13 percent of votes in the 2015 elections. Those who claimed trading as their occupation made up just nine percent of total voters while civil servants, who incidentally consume the largest chunk of the country’s expenditure, made up just seven percent of voters. Artisans made up only four percent while public servants, another group that eats up good chunk of the country’s annual expenditure made up just two percent of voters. ‘Others’ that is unclassified by profession made up six percent of total voters in 2015.
An analysis of the age profile of Nigerian voters also provides some interesting revelations. Nigerian voters are predominantly young. The data shows that 21 percent of voters are in the age bracket of 18-25 while another 18 percent are in the age bracket of 26-31. This shows that 39 percent of voters in the 2015 presidential elections were below 31 years of age. However, the biggest votes are concentrated in the 32-40 age group where 24 percent of voters fall into.
Cumulatively, 63 percent voters are below the age 40 years. This means that the oldest of the people in this age group that voted in the 2015 presidential elections were just eight years when Buhari was military president in 1983. Their knowledge of the Buhari military presidency was therefore largely based on hearsay from their parents and guardians who had a first-hand experience of the Buhari years. Now that these groups of voters have experienced a Buhari Presidency first hand, it would be interesting to see if they would vote in 2019 the same way that they voted in 2015. Voters are who above 56 years, made up just 13 percent of those that voted in 2019. There is no analysis of how each of this age groups voted in the 2015 elections so it would be difficult to use it forecast how changes in their voting pattern could affect the 2019 presidential elections.
A gender analysis of the voters in the 2015 presidential elections show that approximately 56 percent of voters were male while the balance of 44 percent were females. The highest concentration of female voters is found in the three northern states of Kaduna, Kano and Katsina. Each of these states has slightly over 600,000 female voters. Jigawa and Lagos also come a close second with each of the states having slightly over 500,000 female voters. Osun, Ekiti and Anambra are the only states that had more female voters than male voters in the 2015 presidential elections. Kano had the highest number of male voters followed by Lagos.
As the race for the 2019 Presidency builds up, presidential hopefuls will have to craft their strategy around how to reach these various group of voters and convince them to vote for them. A one fits all campaign strategy will definitely not work.
Anthony Osae-Brown
