Thomas Robert Malthus, was an English pastor who formulated a theory around population growth rate in 1798. He argued that population grew in geometric progression while food grew in arithmetic progression. This soon results in a situation where population growth outstrips food supply. Starvation results which kills many people, reducing the population to the food supply level again. However, Malthus theory has not exactly been proved right globally as despite fast pace growth in population, advances in technology and better farming methods has ensured that food supply has not only kept pace with the population but in many cases outpaced population growth rate in many advanced countries.
But Pastor Malthus may be proved right in Nigeria considering the pace at which we are growing the country’s population but neglecting expanding the resources that will feed the new mouths that are coming in. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently released what it called a ‘demographic statistics bulletin’ which provided some insights on the country’s population, a topic that remains highly controversial. Based on the NBS figures, which it admits, is based on its projections, the country’s population stood at 193 million as at 2016.
This represents about a 13 percent growth from the country’s population of 170 million in 2012, based on the NBS data. In between 2012 and 2016, a period of five years, a total of 23 million brand new Nigerians were born, this comes to an average population growth of 4.65 million per year. Going by this population growth rate, the country’s population will cross the 200 million mark by 2019 and of this number, at least 30 million will be under the age of eight years.
This means that a minimum of 30 million Nigerians would have been born between 2012 and 2019, a period of seven years. For the public sector, 30 million Nigerians under the age of eight has significant implication on how we plan our early childhood education programme. How well equipped are our early child education centres and primary schools to equip these kids for a rapidly changing world where knowledge is now the competitive edge? The current state of our public school system does not give much hope. There are also significant implications for provision of healthcare. How do we ensure that these kids do not die before the age of five? Again, the state of primary healthcare in the country does not give much hope.
For the private sector, investing in child linked products looks like a great investment opportunity. It is this data that explains the fact that Lagos state is said to have over 18,000 private schools and that the diaper selling business is a great business in the country. Businesses positioned to serve this market are likely thrive into the future as demand in this segment is usually inelastic. Most parents, as long as they can afford it, and in most cases, even when they cannot afford it, will go the extra mile to satisfy their kids.
And there is evidence from the NBS data that the country will continue to have a healthy supply of babies in the next few years. The NBS data shows that the country’s fertility rate moved up from 5.5 in 2015 to 5.8 in 2016. That is an average Nigerian woman has at least six kids in her life time. Jigawa state has the highest fertility rate, with an average of nine children per woman while Rivers, with just three children per woman, had the lowest fertility rate. Compare this with the fact that the average child per woman in Europe currently is one.
Average fertility rates in the Northern parts of the country were almost twice more than many states in the Southern part of the country. The high fertility rate is not surprising because there is little or no attempt to control population growth rate. Again, the NBS data shows that the number of married women, or women who are in some of form of partnership but are not using contraceptives to prevent pregnancy was 86.6 percent. This means an average of 9 out of every 10 married women were not on any form of contraceptive. If this is taken together with the fact that only an insignificant 1.1, that is an average of 1 in a 100 men use condoms and almost none are sterilized, then the consequence can easily be seen in the country’s fast growing population.
Our capacity to continue producing babies is also quite healthy. The NBS data shows that there are about 24 million women in the age bracket 15 to 49 years that are currently married or in some form of a legal union. At an average fertility rate of 5.5, these women have the capacity to add 132 million new Nigerians throughout their reproductive life cycle of about 34 years. But population growth is geometric, because as more women get into the productive age, the productive base expands. This means that the number of new babies will even be higher than the number above.
Actual projections from the United Nation’s Population commission shows that country’s population will cross the 400 million mark by 2050, in just about 32 years from today. This means that it will take us just four more presidents including President Muhammadu Buhari, assuming he wins a second term, and each subsequent president completes a full 8-year tenure, for us to get to the point when Nigeria has four hundred million people living in it. This means that in just 8 elections, we will have twice the number of Nigerians that are currently in existence, an additional 200 million people to the current 200 million. Let that sink in.
The thought of it is both scary and promising. Scary in the sense that when you consider poor state of the country’s public education system that the majority of these new Nigerians will have to pass through, then a nightmare scenario begins to build in your head. The current public education system in the country is not built to prepare Nigerians for the knowledge economy that is taking shape.
But it could be promising if you think of what the country could achieve if we ensure that all these new Nigerians that will be joining us are equipped and trained in the best educational environment possible. Imagine the endless possibilities of a country with 200 million youths below the age of 30 that are well trained and educated?
Signs of the future is already with us. Based on the NBS data, 41 percent, which comes to about 38 million Nigerians are below the age of 15. At least 70 percent of these children are in our dilapidated public school systems where the quality of education leaves much to be desired. Many, are not even in school. Between 6 to 10 million children are estimated to be out of school. In another 15 years, the children of today will be in the labour market or about to enter the labour market.
Sadly, with the state of public educational system, it is easy to predict that majority of today’s children are being poorly prepared for the knowledge economy of the 21 st century. We risk having a highly populated country with poor quality manpower by 2050. This translates into low productivity, low labour competitiveness and invariably high poverty rates, a scenario that will validate Pastor Malthus ‘prophetic view’ of the future. That trajectory can only be changed with the choices we make today and making the education system work for the future should be an urgent call to action.
