As Nigeria approaches the 2023 elections, widespread criminality and social unrest have increased in scale and frequency to become the fastest-rising type of security threat. And, they are anticipated as the determining factors for the conduct of the elections. However, this won’t be the first time Nigeria is conducting elections under strenuous security situations. For instance, in the 2015 elections, the threat of terrorism directly affected elections as Boko Haram terrorists controlled 14 Local Government Areas across Borno, Yobe, and Gombe States. In 2019, the effect was from criminality and social unrest directly affected the running of elections. Hence, the 2023 elections are expected to be similar to the 2019 election due to similar trends.
To predict how social unrest could affect the 2023 general elections, let’s look back at the pattern of social unrest in 2018 in the buildup to the 2019 elections, and its effects.
In 2018, there was a steady month-on-month rise from March leading up to the elections in February 2019. These events were widespread across the country but were concentrated in the South. Social unrest particularly spiked in February 2019 due to a series of protests around the conduct and results of the elections. A similar trend is being observed in 2022. Southern Nigeria has witnessed the highest cases of social unrest. In 2022, social unrest was at its peak so far in February due to political party activities and the ASUU strike protests, though there was a sharp decline in June after political parties ended their primaries, but then in August, social unrest grew steadily again as political parties kicked off election activities.
Read also: Unknown gunmen attack INEC Imo office
What to expect before, during, and after the elections:
Clashes among political party members and the opposing parties usually occur during party primaries rallies, and campaigns. These clashes occur on a large scale and in some cases disrupt economic activities and traffic. In 2022, Area! ERP recorded 95 cases of political violence mostly involving intra-party confrontations and clashes among political parties during campaigns. These clashes were large-scale and mostly occurred in urban centers. For instance, in May 2022, two Policemen were shot at the venue of the PDP House of Representatives primaries in Obudu LGA, Cross River state following a clash among PDP supporters. Also in November 2022, APC supporters allegedly attacked the convoy of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, Presidential Candidate of PDP in Maiduguri, Borno state.
Protests and large-scale rallies by trade unions and political parties are also expected. Post-election unrests by voters over the turnout of the election usually occur on a large scale and are often met with hardened responses from government security forces. For instance, in February 2019, social unrest increased by 27% (163 events) when compared with January 2019 where 128 events were recorded. This increase was due to a series of unrest following the outcome of the election and how the election was conducted.
The 2023 elections will be taking place amidst regional security challenges across the country, and each of these challenges has proven to be capable of disrupting elections. Targeted attacks on INEC offices and its officials will likely affect the electoral body’s logistical capability, potentially disrupting the 2023 elections. The electoral body alongside its staff witnessed 11 attacks across the country between January-November 2022, mostly in Southern Nigeria and sometimes forcing INEC to suspend voter registration. For instance, in April 2022, INEC suspended the voter registration exercise in Ihitte Uboma LGA, Imo state after an INEC staff was shot dead by gunmen during a voter registration exercise.
Banditry in the Northwest and North Central is also expected to disrupt the 2023 elections following precedents in Bukura LGA, Zamfara state, where bandits disrupted a bye-election in 2020. Moreover, the threat of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) disrupting elections remains high as their existing sit-at-home orders in the Southeast contributed to low voter turnout in the 2021 Anambra Gubernatorial election. This security landscape is likely to repeat itself in 2023.
An often-overlooked risk in logistical operations in Nigeria is the effect of unpredictable climate change. States such as Kogi, Delta, Bayelsa, Borno, Jigawa, and Rivers States have all experienced severe flash floods that have displaced over 1.4 million people and killed over 600 persons. This flood amplified by poor road infrastructure, fuel shortage, and the impact of high inflation on INEC’s budget have a high chance of delaying or disrupting the conduct of elections, especially in remote locations.
In a bid to reduce the already tense security environment ahead of the 2023 election, government security forces will likely take proactive steps through a series of clearance operations targeted at criminal hideouts as seen in previous elections. This heavy-handed response from government security forces has the potential to de-escalate the already existing tensions ahead of the 2023 elections. However, as we businesses brace for Nigeria’s 7th General elections on the 25th of February 2023, businesses will have to assume the costs of managing disruptions to their operations during extreme political situations associated with the elections. From manufacturers to producers, warehouses, and retailers, an election during a strenuous security situation will increase the cost of doing business in certain locations. Individuals on the other hand will continue to face political risks as a result of the election.
Join us on the 21st of December, 2022 at BusinessDay, Nigeria’s Twitter space as we speak more on the topic “the 2023 Nigeria Elections; What to expect and how to respond”.
Disclaimer: This article has been authored on the back of original content put together by both Amarante International and Towntalk and within this article may exist extracts and or similarities of the original content.
Towntalk is a data intelligence company that builds advanced technology using hard-to-collect local data, captured in real time. The company‘s localised solutions deliver real-time insights to support proactive risk mitigation.
