Adopt scenario thinking for strategic decision-making, TEXEM urges African CEOs.

TEXEM UK, the United Kingdom-based leadership development organisation, has urged African leaders and CEOs to adopt scenario thinking to enhance their strategic decision-making process.

TEXEM’s Director, Special Projects, Caroline Lucas gave the advice in a statement on TEXEM website, www.texem.co.uk.

Lucas also warned the leaders and CEOs to stop relying on linear forecasting during polycrisis as this will ultimately turn out to be a strategic liability for their operations.

She said for African leaders to lead effectively today, scenario thinking must move from the periphery to the core of their strategic decision-making.

Lucas asserted that scenario thinking is not an exercise in prediction but an exercise in building organisational resilience.

“It requires us to abandon the pursuit of the ‘single best forecast’ and instead embrace the rigorous exploration of ‘multiple plausible futures,” the leadership development expert said.

She said the imperative for scenario thinking is of great importance now more than before because for the CEOs and leaders of Africa, the luxury of assuming a “business – as – usual” trajectory has evaporated.

Lucas said in order to institutionalise this practice, African leaders must adopt critical shifts in perspective.

The TEXEM director said leaders must shift from Optimisation to Resilience adding that they had for too long prioritised efficiency and lean operations.

“We are no longer navigating the challenges of a single, isolated domain. We are operating within a polycrisis, a confluence of economic volatility, climate instability, institutional pressures, and security imperatives that interact and amplify one another.

“In this environment, the traditional reliance on linear forecasting is not just outdated; it is a strategic liability. When the variables of our reality are inextricably linked, a shock in one sector inevitably triggers a cascade across the continent’s fragile systems.

“In a polycrisis, efficiency without buffers is fragile. Your institutions must now value agility and redundancy as essential assets, ensuring the organisation can absorb shocks without collapse,” she said.

Lucas called for shift from linear projections to systemic mapping while telling leaders and CEOs to stop analysing crises in silos and start mapping the feedback loops between energy prices, supply chain integrity, climate-induced migration, and social stability.

“Understand how your organisation’s exposure in one area creates vulnerability in another,” she added.

Emphasising the need to move from certainty to Adaptability, Lucas said leadership in this age is defined by the ability to pivot.

“Scenario thinking allows you to identify “early warning signals” that are precursors that tell you which of your prepared scenarios is beginning to manifest, thereby allowing you to act before a crisis becomes a catastrophe,” she said.

The statement also announced that TEXEM will be hosting African leaders and CEOs to a programme in Newcastle, United Kingdom on leadership during a polycrisis, which will include presentations on linear forecasting and scenario thinking.

Speaking more on the coming Newcastle leadership development programme titled “Leading in an Age of Polycrisis”, Lucas said three reputable TEXEM faculty will handle the programme from 14th to 18th June.

The faculty are, Lord Jonny Oates, Prof. Roger Delves and John Peters.

Lord Jonny Oates is a Member of the UK House of Lords, and former Chief of Staff to the UK Deputy Prime Minister.

He chairs and serves on parliamentary groups with strong Africa and international development focus.

He is an experienced communicator on governance, public policy and international affairs.

Prof. Roger Delves is a Professor of Leadership Practice and served as Dean of Qualifications at Ashridge Business School, part of Hult International Business School.

He is a world-renowned transformational leader, EQ at work, authenticity in leadership, purpose, values and the role of an integrity expert.

John Peters is a former Chair of Association of MBAs (Accreditors of top Business Schools such as Harvard, London Business School, Stanford and IMD).

He is a world-renowned resilience expert and documentary on his life won the Independent Documentary of the Year and was also nominated for a BAFTA award.

Interested participants in the June programme are expected to click on the link, https://texem.co.uk/leading-in-an-age-of-polycrisis/

The statement also shared testimonials from past delegates of TEXEM programmes.

“So many things have inspired me because I have a new look at what leadership is all about now, and then I think the operation and also aspects of that has to do with what I need to do and make decisions at the right time that involves what the future holds. It’s something that really has inspired me, so many ideas; of course I can’t thank the faculties enough you know in terms of what they have done,”. -Previous TEXEM delegate, Muhammad Bello Aliyu, Registrar/CEO, Computer Professional Council of Nigeria (CPN)

“The programme is quite rich, the content is very insightful, impactful and the content is in fact directed and tailored towards the contemporary leadership challenges we have in the country, or specific and that are directed towards leadership challenges in the country which is strategic leadership in the digital age
because we are evolving and we have to be futuristic,”. -Previous TEXEM delegate, Kingsley Emeka Egwuh, Assistant Comptroller General, Nigeria Customs Service.

“We’re dealing with an organisation that’s relevant in today’s world and bringing in all that knowledge to bear. And so its quite a remarkable organisation. So TEXEM will be good on my lips for recommendations going forward. Thank you,”. -Previous TEXEM delegate, Mr Abel Nsa Senior Technical Adviser (TSA) to the Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ministry of Petroleum Resources Abuja.